Stats Aren't Everything in Pittsburgh Mayoral Race

Nov. 6, 2007 — -- In a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans, 5-1, the outcome of a mayoral election might seem like a foregone conclusion. But in Pittsburgh this year, statistics can't tell the story.

Democratic Mayor Luke Ravenstahl and Republican challenger Mark DeSantis take their battle to the ballot box today in a race that proves the adage "all politics is local."

Political pundits say DeSantis, the entreprenuer-cum-write-in-Republican candidate, poses the most serious threat to the Democratic throne in decades, collecting endorsements usually reserved for Democrats and making inroads in Pittsburgh's staunchly politically blue landscape.

In the city's history, says University of Pittsburgh political communications professor Jerry Shuster, "no Republican has done much more than get his or her name on the ballot or reach a point of credibility as a viable threat to the incumbent candidate. Mark DeSantis has done that."

The Ascent of the Accidental Mayor

Steel City's mayoral politics first made headlines this summer after the unexpected passing of Pittsburgh Mayor Bob O'Connor. Ravenstahl, the 26-year-old City Council president, was sworn in as O'Connor's successor, going down in the books as the youngest mayor in Pittsburgh history.

G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College, describes Ravenstahl as "O'Connor's protégé" and likened the young mayor to a vice presidential pick.

"The president never expects the vice president to be president," Madonna said.

For the old steel town — facing economic hardship and an ever-diminishing populous — Ravenstahl's age seemed the youthful surge it needed to face changing times.

Local reports decorated the accidental mayor as a modern-day David against the city's political Goliath, lauding him as "charming," "honest," and "innocent."

Without a lengthy political record to attack, they turned to Ravenstahl's resume: football star, student body president, a family man from a political family. Ravenstahl's age and circumstance qualified him for the late-night circuit where he sang the praises of Pittsburgh.

"Celebrity took over," Madonna said, "It's not that he wasn't without time in politics, [it's] just that all of a sudden he's thrust into governing a city with deep-seated problems and he stumbles coming out of the box."

'Innocence' Becomes 'Inexperience'

Beset by a series of minor ethics violations, the adjectives describing Ravenstahl's "innocence" quickly turned to "inexperience."

Susan Hansen, a political science professor at the University of Pittsburgh, calls it "the cumulative effect."

"When Ravenstahl came in, when the former mayor died," Hansen said, "he was given the benefit of the doubt. Ravenstahl has, in some ways, acted like a kid and people aren't so willing anymore to say: 'Give the kid a chance.'"

Jim Burn, chair of the Allegheny County Democratic Party, defends Ravenstahl, touting his vision as "refreshing."

"The mayor has been catching a lot of heat, more heat than he deserved," Burn said, attributing the DeSantis surge to the fact that Ravenstahl has had to make some unpopular decisions.

"It's not that the city was running smoothly," Burn said. "The mayor inherited a demanding post at a young age — when you factor everything in, he continues to grow and become an outstanding leader for this region."

As part of their strategy, local Democrats have highlighted DeSantis' connection to the Republican establishment, particularly his role as a science adviser to President George H.W. Bush, and contributions to the campaigns of both the current president and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

Madonna says the plan of attack is reflective of who DeSantis has become in this race: "a Republican candidate that no one expected at the outset to have much of a campaign."

"It's serious enough for Democrats to genuinely worry without panicking. And proof to me is what they do when they worry: They run a campaign against George Bush," Madonna said.

Some Democrats Cross Party Lines

Shuster says it's a combination of factors that came together to make the race the way it is, not just an issue of Ravenstahl's youth.

"The validity of the challenger and well-financed campaigning," he said, alongside those "fed up with business as usual."

DeSantis has also picked up several key endorsements usually reserved for the Democratic pool: the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the University of Pittsburgh's student newspaper Pitt News and a leading black newspaper the New Pittsburgh Courier.

In its endorsement announcement last week, the Post-Gazette said it hadn't endorsed a Republican candidate for mayor since 1969.

Chris Schultz, who heads Democrats for DeSantis in Pittsburgh and supports Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's Democratic presidential bid, describes the Republican challenger as "someone who is going to take action and implement new policy in the city."

Allegheny's Burn described Democrats for DeSantis as "more myth than reality. I really do believe this is just some hype."

Outcome Is Anyone's Guess

Hype or no hype, if you're looking for polling numbers to indicate which way the mayor's race will sway, there aren't any.

Calls to local news desks indicated that because Pittsburgh hasn't elected a Republican mayor since 1930 people assumed the trend was not likely to change and no independent polling was commissioned.

Burn expects Ravenstahl's margin of victory to fall within the city's 5-1 Democrat-to-Republican ratio, but analysts indicate problems to come for Pittsburgh's Democratic bloc if he doesn't.

Taking the Democratic stronghold into account Madonna adds that winning isn't everything — "how you win" matters just as much in shaping elections to come. Today's vote classifies as a special election to fill the last two years of O'Connor's term.

Ultimately, Shuster says the odds of a DeSantis win are "not impossible, but highly improbable."

Still, he said, "What was once perceived as steps to a [Ravenstahl] coronation has been dramatically changed to a legitimate political race."

"While I don't think Ravenstahl will lose, anything less than a 3-1 victory is a loss to Democratic victory in the city," Shuster said.

The professor cites weather conditions, Democratic fatigue and the Monday night Steelers-Ravens game all as factors that could come into play affecting voter turnout today for a race that may or may not turn the tide of the city, but has made serious waves.