Moved-up Iowa caucuses could hinder youth vote

DES MOINES -- Democrat Barack Obama is generating palpable excitement on Iowa campuses. But he's up against both history and new challenges as he tries to turn that energy into votes in the state's leadoff presidential caucuses.

In 2004, according to the state Democratic Party, only 3.9% of 124,000 Democratic caucus participants were age 18 to 24. And that was for Jan. 19 caucuses. This time they are on Jan. 3, when virtually all Iowa colleges are on winter break.

"It's clearly an untapped resource," Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin says of the youth vote. "Many candidates have believed that their path to victory in Iowa was to vastly expand the universe of caucus participants and bring in new people, particularly young people. It hasn't quite worked out before."

The crestfallen of yesteryear include Bill Bradley in 2000 and Howard Dean in 2004. This time around, says Alec Schierenbeck, 20, a Grinnell College junior who heads Iowa College Democrats, candidates are making "unprecedented efforts" to organize young people. It's easier than ever, he adds, because of "indispensable" social networking websites such as Facebook.

Besides Obama, those in the hunt include Republican Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, Democratic New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and former North Carolina senator John Edwards, also a Democrat. Several national polls show Clinton with a plurality of younger voters among Democratic candidates; she splits them evenly with Obama in at least one. But most polls measure a group aged 18 to 30, so it's hard to discern student preferences.

It's even harder to gauge the situation in Iowa, shaping up as a crucial contest for both Obama and Edwards. A frequent way to identify a likely caucus-goer is someone who's caucused before — but most students aren't old enough to have done that.

A Rassmussen Reports poll last month found that 40% of Iowa Democrats age 18 to 29 went for Clinton and 23% chose Obama — but the sample was only 81 people. The margin of error is plus or minus about 12 percentage points.

Obama supporter Kris Harthoorn, 20, a sophomore at Central College in Pella, says Obama has "overwhelming" backing in the College Democrats group he heads. Catherine Chargo, 20, a senior at the University of Iowa, says that "originally I was on his bandwagon because everyone else was." She's now "on the fence" between Edwards and Obama.

At Iowa State University, signs of Obama support include huge rallies (Clinton's events have been much smaller), a student group with 157 members (Clinton's has 15) and 65% support in a straw poll of 500 freshmen (Clinton had 17%).

Those indicators, of course, are inexact and fluid. Clinton just launched her national "Students for Hillary" drive Nov. 1. Obama, meanwhile, had a head start because many students from next-door Illinois attend schools in Iowa. "No one else really has a comparable surrounding-state edge," says Schierenbeck.

At an Iowa Democratic Party dinner Saturday night, Clinton strategist Mark Penn said "very few" of Obama's 3,000 supporters "look like they're of typical caucus-going age. Hillary's look like the mix of caucus-goers." Translation: They look older.

Gordon Fischer, a former state party chairman helping Obama, is among some at the campaign who say the youth angle has been overemphasized. The bulk of organizing involves thousands of contacts a day with "regular caucus-goers," Fischer says. Young people are "icing on the cake."

Still, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said in a Sept. 22 memo that "we are heavily focused on the task" of turning out young voters. And the task is even more complicated than usual as a result of the Jan. 3 caucus date.

Some Iowa residents on break will caucus in their hometowns. "They actually may have a greater impact in their home communities" than on campus in terms of helping their candidates win caucuses and convention delegates, says Dianne Bystrom, a political scientist at Iowa State.

That is, if the campaigns can stay in touch and actually get them to caucus. The hurdles of the hometown strategy are high, Fischer says, but "the benefits are potentially gigantic."

Some Iowa and out-of-state students will return to college and caucus there. That is, if they live off-campus or can find a place to stay. Schierenbeck, of Brooklyn, N.Y., says Grinnell is one of several schools planning to reopen briefly so students who live in dorms can come back and caucus.

"That's going to increase turnout significantly," Schierenbeck says, but it won't be a record. A caucus while colleges were in session would have produced "the highest new turnout in history" on campuses, he says. "Now you won't see that happen."