Electability key among Iowa Democrats

JEFFERSON, Iowa -- Ask Democrat Ann Cunningham what she's shopping for in a presidential candidate and she replies, "I want a winner, first and foremost." She's still mulling which Democrat is most likely to deliver the White House.

Iowa Democrats displayed a practical bent in their leadoff nomination contest four years ago. Many were upset about the war in Iraq. But in the end they abandoned Howard Dean, the anti-war former governor, in favor of Sen. John Kerry, a Vietnam combat veteran who had voted to authorize the war.

Nearly half the Iowa Democrats in a recent New York Times/CBS News poll — and nearly seven in 10 New Hampshire Democrats — said New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is the party's most electable candidate.

With crunch time approaching, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, former senator John Edwards and their backers are making increasingly strong arguments that they are better bets to win.

"They are planting that seed," says Donna Hoffman, a political scientist at the University of Northern Iowa. "The more they talk about it, the more people are going to think about it" in the days before the Jan. 3 caucuses.

She says the strategy also allows them to remind voters of Clinton's high negative ratings in polls: "They think they can score some points off that."

Among Republicans, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and his supporters say he's most electable because he puts states such as California in play.

Arizona Sen. John McCain counters that he's best positioned to win states such as Ohio, Washington, Kentucky and Virginia. "John McCain is cementing his position as the best candidate to defeat Hillary Clinton," campaign manager Rick Davis said Thursday.

Clinton is reinforcing her own viability case by collecting endorsements from prominent Democratic moderates and swing-state officials.

"I am especially proud to have the support of so many Democratic leaders from the so-called red states," Clinton told cheering Democrats at an Iowa party dinner this month.

She named three: Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and "Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, who is here with me tonight. Because Democrats know (that) when we win Ohio, we win the White House."

Pollster Mark Penn says his research shows Clinton could draw up to a quarter of Republican women and drive up female turnout overall.

Even a 10% increase would "open up a wide number of states," Penn wrote last month. In a memo Thursday, he named nine states and said Clinton would win by a landslide if the election were held now.

Obama's theme of bringing the country together is easy to integrate with an electability message. He recently announced that 268 Iowa Republicans have switched parties to back him in the caucuses, the community meetings at which neighbors vote for their candidate.

At a town meeting this month at the Skate Pit in Knoxville, asked to describe "one thing about yourself that makes you the most electable Democrat in a general election," Obama said his rating among Illinois Republicans is 55% approval, 25% disapproval. Then he moved on to the campaigning he did for other candidates in 2006.

"I probably raised more money for them except maybe Bill Clinton. The reason is that folks would invite me to places they couldn't invite other Democrats," he said. "I went to campaign for (Sen.) Ben Nelson in Omaha He did not invite a single other Democrat to campaign for him. I've got appeal that goes beyond our party."

Lots of disaffected Republicans and independents are "willing to give us a chance," Obama said. "To take advantage of that, I think we've got to have a candidate that can break some of those divides."

Edwards, the only white male among the leading Democratic candidates, gives a combative stump speech about showing Democratic backbone and standing up to corporate interests. He makes a similar argument about his broad appeal.

"I'm the only candidate who has actually won in a red state," Edwards said this month on ABC's This Week, referring to his 1998 Senate victory in North Carolina. He said the party needs him because he "can go to any place in this country and compete" and "strengthen Democratic numbers in the House and Senate."

Cunningham, 53, a legal secretary from Paton, was at the courthouse here this month to hear Edwards, her pick in 2004. She'd already heard Clinton and Obama. "I like Hillary, but is she electable in the whole United States?" Cunningham asked. "I don't know. There are an awful lot of conservatives that won't vote for her."

A few minutes later, state Sen. Daryl Beall introduced Edwards with words that might have been aimed straight at her. "His message resonates not only with Democrats, but (also) with independents and even crossover Republicans," he said. "He's electable."