Giuliani shifts tactics, goes on offensive in early states

— -- Republican Rudy Giuliani's plan to absorb punishment in the party's early primaries and then strike back in primaries in delegate-rich states on Jan. 29 and Feb. 5 has hit a wall, political analysts and strategists say.

Instead of emulating former heavyweight boxing champion Muhammad Ali's rope-a-dope strategy and letting his opponents tire themselves out in contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, the former New York mayor has had to start swinging hard in those states.

That's because Giuliani is behind in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, polls show. So while Ali's strategy enabled him to unseat heavyweight champ George Foreman in 1974, it won't help Giuliani win next year's Republican presidential nomination, political scientist Dante Scala said.

"He needs to break through before the end of January," said Scala, who teaches at the University of New Hampshire.

Giuliani's campaign sees an opportunity in New Hampshire's Jan. 8 primary, campaign manager Michael DuHaime said. First, however, Giuliani must overcome the lead by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who lives less than 50 miles from the New Hampshire border.

A new CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll released Wednesday put Romney at 32%, with Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain well back at 19%.

Giuliani can't afford to wait until Florida and its Jan. 29 primary, said Andy Smith, who directs the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll. The "front loading" of early primaries means that "momentum becomes an even more important factor in the nomination than it has been in previous years," Smith said.

That's why Giuliani's campaign has started working harder in New Hampshire, Smith said, although "they can't say that because they might raise expectations they can't meet."

While he acknowledged the argument about early momentum, DuHaime said the nomination will be determined by who wins the most delegates. That will be Giuliani, he said.

"It's all about delegate count," DuHaime said. "You don't have to win every single race to pick up delegates."

Instead, he argued, Giuliani can stay competitive in the early states and then clean up in Florida, then in California, New York and other large states on Feb. 5.

In New Hampshire, DuHaime said, the pressure is really on Romney and McCain, who have campaigned there the most. "For us, we see it as an opportunity to perform well," he said.

The recent improvement in the campaign of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee can weaken Romney, said Heidi Bunnell, Giuliani's New Hampshire campaign co-chair. A Huckabee win in Iowa's caucuses Jan. 3 would hobble Romney just five days before the New Hampshire primary.

"People would say, 'wait a minute, if Romney is not winning Iowa, maybe I'll take a look at a second candidate. Maybe Giuliani,' " she said.

Bunnell and other Giuliani supporters note he too hails from a nearby state and tout his record of reducing crime in New York and coping with the 9/11 fallout.

Giuliani has 12 campaign workers in New Hampshire and a cadre of volunteers "that has been diligently working over the past few months," campaign spokeswoman Maria Comella said.

The campaign started airing television commercials in New Hampshire on Nov. 15 and by now has aired five different spots. It has state offices in Manchester and Portsmouth, and will soon open a third in Nashua.

Scala said his research shows that Giuliani has spent $610,000 for ads on Manchester's WMUR, the state's largest television station. That pales to the $3.1 million poured in by Romney, and is also behind McCain's $790,000 worth of ads on WMUR.

During a recent interview on NBC's Meet the Press, Giuliani laughed off lagging poll numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire, and played up his lead in Florida. He also expressed high hopes for the Feb. 5 primaries in states where he currently leads in the polls, such as California and New York.

"You want to be there certainly for Feb. 5, when we're going to have more primaries on one day than we've ever had in our history," Giuliani said.

For even if Romney falters, Smith said, Giuliani might not be the only beneficiary in New Hampshire. After all, McCain won the New Hampshire primary in 2000 and has claimed the endorsement of the Union Leader in Manchester, the state's largest newspaper.

Tom Rath, a senior adviser to the Romney campaign who practices law in New Hampshire, said of Giuliani and his operation: "There's no question he is playing very hard here, and he and McCain seem to have similar polling numbers here so far."