Amid calls for change, the tension is building

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Now, it's all about change.

The five-day campaign here leading to Tuesday's primary is a supercharged blur of candidates trying to apply the lessons of last week's Iowa caucuses. Iowa's winners — Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee — are pressing to shake up the status quo in Washington. Now, the exchanges among candidates in debates, on TV and at rallies are increasingly caustic, reflecting the likelihood that the voting here will end some candidacies and ignite others.

The stakes here are particularly high for a pair of onetime New Hampshire front-runners: Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney. He lags behind Arizona Sen. John McCain by 4 percentage points in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday. Clinton, deadlocked with Obama here just three weeks ago, trails him by 13 points.

An Obama victory here would put history on his side. For more than three decades, every presidential contender who managed to win both Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's primary has gone on to claim their party's nomination.

Everyone seems to have learned the same lesson from Iowa: Voters want someone to change things in Washington. During televised debates Saturday night, Democrats used the noun "change" 61 times, Republicans 30.

The battle cries at rallies here for Clinton — who has stressed her experience in government and as first lady — are beginning to sound more and more like Obama's. "Are you ready for change?" state Sen. Sylvia Larsen asked an overflow crowd for Clinton in Penacook. Romney, meanwhile, adapted a line from Obama's stump speech: "Sending back the same old people just in different chairs is not going to fix Washington," he said in Derry.

"This change thing must be catching on because now everybody's talking about change," Obama joked in Nashua. "That's OK. We want everybody on the change bandwagon."

But Clinton must cope with long odds in her attempt to persuade voters that she's the face of change, says Elizabeth Ossoff, a political psychology specialist at Saint Anselm College here. Given the few days between the Iowa and New Hampshire votes, "the time pressure is very tough," Ossoff says, especially because most people don't watch the news on weekends.

And although Clinton's husband, former president Bill Clinton, is a great campaigner, "he's a reminder of what was" and Hillary Clinton's connection to the past, Ossoff says.

Joe Keefe, a former state party chairman here who endorsed Obama over the weekend, says most Democrats would have no problem with her as the party's nominee. "She's well-loved, highly regarded and incredibly capable," he says. "But Obama is tapping into something. People see him as a transitional, potentially transformational figure."

As the stakes in New Hampshire's primary have become clear — especially for Clinton — crowds for both Obama and Clinton have strained the capacities of town halls and high school gyms here. Clinton persuaded the fire marshal in Penacook to let in more people massed in the hallway and on the sidewalk outside. Among Republicans, McCain — who won here in 2000 and finished behind Huckabee and Romney in Iowa — also draws overflow crowds.

The atmosphere of the campaigns in New Hampshire is intense and personal. Romney is on the defensive against attacks by Huckabee and McCain. The Clinton camp, struggling to recover from a third-place finish in Iowa behind Obama and John Edwards, hastily scheduled a conference call Sunday with reporters to denounce Obama as all talk and no action.

Obama, meanwhile, conveyed the confidence of a front-runner campaigning above the fray.

The key questions on Tuesday: Will Clinton and Romney recover from their serious setbacks in Iowa? Will McCain repeat the New Hampshire victory that temporarily boosted his presidential campaign eight years ago? Can Obama sustain the excitement and momentum that have made him a star attraction here?

"Change" dominated the headlines over the weekend, but there are five other big challenges confronting the candidates in the next 24 hours:

1. The risk of going negative

A few days before the primary, the attacks are faster and the jibes are sharper. "I've been in hostage negotiations that are a lot more civil than this," Democratic candidate Bill Richardson joked during the debate Saturday.

At the Republicans' debate, McCain and Huckabee targeted Romney with sarcastic references to his evolution in thinking on several issues. "You are the candidate of change," McCain told him.

"The continued personal barbs are interesting but unnecessary," Romney replied curtly.

In one of the TV ads that now blanket New Hampshire and Boston stations, McCain quotes the Concord Monitor's description of Romney as "a phony." A Romney ad shows people on the street who characterize McCain, 71, as a pro-tax Washington insider whose time has passed.

Such negative attacks so close to the primary are rare — and risky.

"People want to feel good about their selection," says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "The textbooks suggest to us that you never end a campaign on a negative note, but that seems to be thrown on its head right now."

Democrats have uplifting ads on the air, but that's where the harmony ends. Clinton says she is a "doer" and suggests Obama is "a talker." She notes that, despite his anti-lobbyist rhetoric, Obama's campaign co-chair here is a lobbyist — albeit in Concord, not Washington.

Her campaign also sent a last-minute mailer to New Hampshire Democrats criticizing Obama for voting "present" on seven abortion rights bills when he was an Illinois state senator. Obama's campaign responded with automated calls from a Planned Parenthood official who characterized Clinton's mailer as "last-minute smears."

Almost immediately, the Clinton campaign shot back that the calls might be breaking a New Hampshire law. Then the Obama camp sent out an e-mail from state campaign co-chairman Ned Helms calling the Clinton tactics "more and more desperate."

Unlike the stereotype of the opening state as "Iowa Nice," where attacks can backfire, New Hampshire political culture tolerates more rough-and-tumble.

"This is our favorite sport," says Tom Rath, a Romney adviser and veteran of New Hampshire campaigns. He says "contrast" ads that compare candidates' positions on issues are fair game here.

Still, Romney and McCain also have added positive notes to their closing mix of TV ads.

Romney touts conservative principles in a spot called "Growth and Prosperity." McCain has a final ad reminding voters that for decades he has been bucking the establishment — in tune with their current restive mood.

"I don't like the business-as-usual crowd in Washington," he says.

2. Luring independents

The biggest group of voters in New Hampshire isn't registered as Republican or Democrat. It's the group that is unaffiliated with any party and eligible to vote in either primary.

In 2000, these voters delivered the New Hampshire primary to McCain, a Senate maverick, over George W. Bush. Six in 10 unaffiliated voters participated in the GOP primary then, and McCain got most of their votes.

This time, six in 10 of those voters plan to vote in the Democratic contest, according to the USA TODAY Poll, and Obama gets most of their votes. He is also an anti-establishment candidate, and his surge among independents may hamper McCain.

"McCain simply needs more indies, but that clearly seems to be Obama's turf," pollster John Zogby says.

At a McCain rally in Peterborough, Terry Shell says she's considering Obama. "They both have the ability to reach across party lines," the nurse from Rindge says.

At an Obama rally in Nashua, Mark Levine says he's looking for a candidate who can make a break with current politics.

"I'm looking at McCain, but it probably will be Obama," he says, drawn by his oratorical ability and "enthusiasm."

"Independents sitting in New Hampshire are saying, 'Where can my vote matter most?' " Paleologos says. "People are determined to politically leverage their vote by saying, 'My vote has more oomph in this primary rather than that primary.' "

3. Drawing women's support

From the start of her campaign, Clinton has tried to capitalize on her status as a female pioneer who could become the first female president. This weekend, she sent a fundraising pitch headlined, "Let's Make History."

Even so, Obama — who would be the first African-American president — won the votes of most women in Iowa, 35%-30%, according to surveys of voters as they arrived at the caucuses. The divide was generational: He swept women under 45 by 50%-21%, while Clinton carried the votes of women 45 and older by 36%-24%.

Clinton's lost ground among women is particularly serious because of her weak standing among men. While Obama narrowly beats her among women in New Hampshire, his edge among men is almost 2½ to 1, the USA TODAY Poll shows.

Laura Anderson, 19, of Sanbornton, attended a Clinton town-hall-style meeting in Penacook but says she's still shopping for a candidate. The idea of the first female president is appealing, she says, "but I also like the idea of the first black president."

Jessica Pollack, 35, a nurse practitioner from Concord, says she loved Clinton's presentation at that town hall but started to waver while watching the debate Saturday night. "She was very defensive," she says. "Obama seemed to be more open and kind of quietly powerful."

Pollack is leaning his way, but says she gets "an earful" about Clinton from her mother, a 60-year-old retired teacher from Westchester County, N.Y. "My mother is supporting her as a female candidate," Pollack says, because she wants her toddler granddaughter to see a woman in the White House. Her view, according to Pollack: "Here is our opportunity, and we don't know when it will come again."

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says the generational divide emerged in the 2006 congressional and gubernatorial races when younger women didn't coalesce behind female candidates. Older women did: "They remember when women could not be X, Y and Z," she says.

This weekend, Clinton's campaign launched an "Ask Hillary" feature on the social-networking site Facebook, an effort to reach out to younger voters, male and female. She's also been traveling with daughter Chelsea, 27, by her side.

The Obama camp has dispatched to the campaign his wife, Michelle, and his two half sisters — not to mention talk-show guru Oprah Winfrey. Her tour last month of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina drew tens of thousands in each state.

4. Making up ground

For several Republican candidates who did not compete full-out here and are unlikely to win — Giuliani, Huckabee and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson — the best outcome would be a muddle. They'd like the race to remain unsettled until it moves to states where they may fare better.

If the battle here between Romney and McCain leaves one or both dented, that's helpful, too. "The longer that this race remains wide open, the better it becomes for Rudy Giuliani," says Michael DuHaime, campaign manager for the former New York mayor.

Giuliani has campaigned here sporadically, instead devoting time and airing TV ads in Florida for its primary Jan. 29. His strategy is to overcome losses in the early contests and demonstrate strength in the big states that will vote Feb. 5.

Huckabee figures he has a better shot when the campaign moves from New England to the South. The Christian conservatives who boosted the former Arkansas governor and ordained Baptist minister in Iowa could be decisive in the South Carolina primary Jan. 19. A third-place finish in New Hampshire would be a win for him.

Thompson, who was third in Iowa and is sixth in the USA TODAY survey, has a similar plan. "It is all about South Carolina," he said Sunday on CNN.

The wait-until-later strategy is a gamble, however, because other candidates gain sometimes-unstoppable momentum with early victories. "There are no firewalls," Rath says. "Everything changes."

5. Catching a wave

The Democratic contest is a two-person race, dominated by Clinton and Obama. That leaves Edwards, a former North Carolina senator who is a close third, and Richardson, New Mexico's governor who is a distant fourth, waiting for a stumble or a political earthquake to create an opening for them.

Edwards, who finished second in Iowa, hasn't changed his argument that corporate interests control Washington and have drowned out the voice of the people. He's low on money but draws healthy crowds here.

Richardson, in single digits, is in the wings as a potential default choice with an extensive résumé and a breakthrough claim of his own as the first major Hispanic contender. The Nevada caucuses on Jan. 19 could give him a boost in his home region.

"There is fluidity in this race," says Richardson spokesman Tom Reynolds, because the departure of other second-tier candidates has "left more oxygen in the room."

Then there are Ron Paul, an anti-war, anti-tax Republican, and Dennis Kucinich, an anti-war Democrat.

They might stay in the race to make a point and pursue their causes even after their chances for the nomination are clearly negligible. And Paul, who raised nearly $20 million in the past three months, has the financial wherewithal to do it.

Kucinich doesn't have that kind of money, but on Sunday he did have Viggo Mortensen with him on the trail.

The actor is best known as the mighty warrior Aragorn in The Lord of the Rings, fighting for the forces of light.

Number of times each candidate said "change" or "changes" during Saturday's televised debates:

Source: USA TODAY research

Contributing: David Jackson, Kathy Kiely and Martha T. Moore