Tight races make Calif. a bigger catch

VAN NUYS, Calif. -- Finally, voters in the nation's most populous state get to help pick the finalists for president.

For the first time in decades, thanks to an early primary and volatile races in both parties, California is at the center of the action. It's the biggest prize on Super Tuesday, the 22-state tidal wave of primaries and caucuses Feb. 5.

Hundreds of delegates are at stake here — nearly 22% of those needed to win the Democratic nomination and 15% of those needed by Republicans — as well as bragging rights and a claim to significant momentum.

"We're all a little bit startled," says Dan Schnur, a California-based GOP strategist. "The fact that both nominations are going to be seriously contested here is very exciting."

Campaigns court voters here with an intensity usually reserved for small leadoff states in the nomination season. There are ads on TV, brochures in mailboxes, advocates on the phone, sometimes even a canvasser at the door or a candidate down the block. Presidential hopefuls often spend time plumbing this wealthy state for money, but this year they also are squeezing in rallies, roundtables and coffee-shop visits.

California is an outsized national presence, whether you're talking statistics (36 million residents and the eighth-largest economy in the world), problems (traffic and natural disasters), glitz (celebrities), agenda-setting (taxes, immigration and global warming) or Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's macho, movie-star personality.

The state poses outsized challenges for candidates, too. It costs millions of dollars to blanket California with TV ads, making for tough spending decisions. The state's sheer vastness — more than 24,000 precincts across nearly 156,000 square miles — means organizing on a massive scale.

Candidates also must reach out to voters who speak Spanish and independents who often don't vote. And they must reach out to everyone early. In a process that's been going on since Jan. 7, up to half the votes in the primary will be cast in advance, through the mail. One in five voters in each party have voted, according to a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.

The new poll, conducted Wednesday through Saturday, showed that Arizona Sen. John McCain led former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, 35%-27% on the GOP side. The poll is a snapshot that could change. Each candidate hopes to rocket into California and other contests with a win Tuesday in Florida.

Among Democrats, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton led Illinois Sen. Barack Obama here by 12 percentage points, 47%-35%, fueled by a 20-point lead among women. The snapshot was taken before Obama's huge win Saturday in South Carolina. He's looking to capitalize on that here and stay competitive in the delegate count. A Clinton victory would give her campaign new energy.

For the past dozen years, California presidential primaries have been in March, after voters elsewhere have crowned nominees or sent them well on their way. Political veterans reach back 40 years or more trying to recall when the state last helped pick a ticket.

California Republicans dealt a fatal blow to Nelson Rockefeller by choosing Barry Goldwater in 1964 and helped Ronald Reagan nearly block President Gerald Ford's nomination in 1976.

For Democrats, "this is probably the most spirited primary we've had since McGovern-Humphrey in 1972 or Bobby (Kennedy) and Eugene McCarthy in 1968," says Art Torres, chairman of the California Democratic Party.

The lively contests and earlier primary date have produced "historically unprecedented interest" by both voters and donors, says Mark Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California.

Candidates are raising more money here than in any other state — $51.3 million as of Sept. 30, finance reports show. They also are commiserating about the economy, including skyrocketing home foreclosures, and becoming educated about California issues such as the Hollywood writers' strike.

When McCain visited last fall at the beginning of the strike, says Parneille Walker, 30, a writer's assistant from Van Nuys, "he didn't know anything about it. The next time he came back, he was like, 'The writers' strike. It should end.' He revisited and changed his tune. A lot of other ones followed."

Winners won't take all

California's return to the spotlight is somewhat diminished by the crush of states voting Feb. 5 and by mathematical reality: No candidate will be able to lock up a nomination that night.

Even so, California offers the most convention delegates — 441 for Democrats, 173 for Republicans. Some party and elected officials have automatic delegate slots, but most delegates will be awarded proportionally on Super Tuesday, meaning a candidate can collect support toward a nomination by targeting certain congressional districts or even neighborhoods.

"That has a dramatic impact," says state GOP Chairman Ron Nehring. "Even if they're not running first statewide, candidates still have an opportunity to pick up delegates. It's more likely that they'll compete here."

The environment for that competition is one of mounting economic anxiety. Foreclosures rose to a record high of 31,676 statewide in the last three months of 2007.

In the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, 39% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans said the economy was the most important issue. The No. 2 concern divided by party: One-quarter of Democrats said the Iraq war, about one-quarter of Republicans said illegal immigration.

The Clinton and Obama campaigns are the best financed in either party and the only ones on TV here. Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group says Obama had spent $1.1 million and Clinton $800,000 as of Wednesday, not including Obama's $300,000 national buy on CNN and MSNBC.

Other signs of California's elevated status:

•Clinton has been here 15 times since she became a candidate, spending the equivalent of about a month in the state. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani racked up the same amount of time over a dozen visits, but it hasn't translated into much support.

•Obama and Clinton organize neighborhood by neighborhood. Obama has a plan created by a veteran of the United Farm Workers union. Clinton has more than 10,000 volunteers. Both campaigns aimed to call 100,000 voters over the weekend.

•Democrats compete for high-profile endorsements. Clinton has Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, director Rob Reiner and actress Sally Field. Obama has actresses Halle Berry and Scarlett Johansson and labor leader Maria Elena Durazo.

Former senator John Edwards, who had 10% support in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, boasts the Service Employees International Union, actors Kevin Bacon, Danny Glover, Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon and singer Bonnie Raitt.

•Big names on the GOP side include comedian Dennis Miller for Giuliani, former secretary of State George Shultz for McCain and eBay CEO Meg Whitman for Romney.

Latinos, independents are key

The outcome in both parties will be shaped heavily by independents and Latinos.

Nearly one in five voters here are registered as "decline to state," or unaffiliated with a party. Independents have helped Obama in the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and were key to McCain wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But Republicans here have barred independents from their primary, which could drive them to the Democratic contest. That's a potential advantage for Obama, particularly since many independents have what Baldassare calls a "post-partisan" attitude that meshes with Obama's unity message.

Kam Kuwata, a Democratic strategist, says the challenge is that many independents are not habitual primary voters and some aren't aware they can participate. "If you think you can get independents, you'd better shake the tree. Independents don't automatically know they can vote," he says.

The absence of independents in the GOP primary is problematic for McCain. "He's going to have to reach deeper into the Republican base," says Schnur, who worked for McCain's 2000 campaign but is neutral now. That will be hard, he says, because illegal immigration "is a bigger issue here than anywhere else they've been so far."

McCain alienated the party base last year by backing earned citizenship for many of the 12 million illegal immigrants in the USA. He now says the public has made it clear a border clampdown should come first.

Pollsters estimate that Latinos in California are 14% to 20% of the electorate and up to one-quarter of Democratic primary voters. They favored Clinton more than 2 to 1 over Obama in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. In Nevada, polls showed she won Hispanics 3 to 1.

Torres attributes Clinton's support to Latin America's "matriarchal society," which makes it "natural to gravitate to a woman, mother, wife who offers strong leadership." Others say it has more to do with the Clintons' record. "She's benefiting from the work that she and her husband did a decade ago" on issues such as health care and housing, Villaraigosa says.

Obama supporters say the gap stems in part from his relative unfamiliarity. Friday, he launched a Spanish-language ad about his life on Telemundo and Univision in Los Angeles. "I fervently believe that he can make up ground among Latino voters once they get to know him," says U.S. Rep. Linda Sánchez, D-Calif. She has endorsed Obama; her sister Loretta Sanchez, also a member of Congress, is a Clinton backer.

No matter how much love the candidates lavish on California, voters here will never see retail politicking the way it's done in Iowa and New Hampshire. That disturbs Republican Jack Minden, 52, an architect from Sherman Oaks.

It's charming that "every Iowan gets to have a presidential candidate over to dinner twice," Minden says, but it's also sad: "California is 13% of the whole country and the tail wags the dog." He hopes GOP candidates show up this week in a neighborhood near him.

Before heading for a fundraiser in Pacific Palisades this month, Obama appeared at an "economic roundtable" in Mimi Vitello's sunny backyard in Van Nuys. It was an intimate event — the candidate, four voters, 13 TV cameras and about 50 reporters and photographers.

The small group around the white plastic table described financial worries and hardships: an exploding credit-card interest rate, a home being refinanced to pay off four credit cards used to pay rent on a business, Vitello's interest-only home loan that could outrun her fixed income as a nurse. Obama, his jacket off and his sleeves rolled up, listened carefully and described how his plans would help.

Later, Obama answered a question for the cameras about his own finances: two credit cards, both paid off. But "these stories are familiar to me," he said, because he and his wife borrowed so much money for college and law school: "Our combined student loan debt was higher than our mortgage. It took us 10 years to pay that off."

After everyone had cleared out, Vitello, 52, was as cagey as any old hand in Iowa or New Hampshire. "I'm a political skeptic," she said. "I have a lot of thinking to do, still."