Candidates mine a mother lode of delegates
— -- There has never been a primary election day like it. After leapfrogging to get earlier on the schedule, 16 states across the country hold primaries Tuesday, and six others hold caucuses; two have party conventions. In all, more than 1,600 Democratic convention delegates and almost 950 Republican delegates will be allocated in what is nearly a national primary.
Will decisive victories propel contenders toward the nominations? Or will divided results delay a showdown to the states that follow? USA TODAY surveys the landscape in four key states — the heavyweights on the East and West coasts, the biggest Southern prize and a bellwether state in the Midwest — and, briefly, looks at all of the others.
How delegates are chosen
Democrats require states to apportion pledged convention delegates among all contenders who draw at least 15% support in a primary or caucuses. That can make a second-place finish in congressional districts and states almost as rewarding as a victory.
The GOP leaves that decision to state party organizations. Most divide delegates to the Republican National Convention, being held Sept. 1-4 in St. Paul, among candidates with significant support. But some of Super Tuesday's biggest prizes — including New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona — are winner-take-all.
Democrats designate some elected and party officials in each state as "super delegates" to their national convention, set for Aug. 25-28 in Denver. While their support is courted by the candidates, they aren't officially bound to anyone.
FOUR KEY STATES AND THE OTHERS IN TUESDAY'S FRENZY
California
•Polls close:8 p.m. PT/11 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:370 allocated out of 441
•Republican delegates:170 allocated out of 173
A generation ago, California's June primary mattered. Barry Goldwater beat Nelson Rockefeller here in 1964, and Robert Kennedy defeated Eugene McCarthy in 1968 only to be assassinated that night. In recent contests, Californians have been more important for their campaign donations than the votes they cast in their primary. Not this time: In 2008, the Golden State is the 800-pound gorilla on the season's biggest primary night. Most of the delegates in both parties will be allocated based on results in each of the state's 53 congressional districts, so every candidate is likely to compete somewhere. Among Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton is targeting Hispanics in Southern California, Barack Obama liberals in the San Francisco Bay Area. Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney are focusing on California, too. McCain's appeal to independents won't help him; only Republicans can vote in the GOP primary.
•Candidates on the campaign trail, 4A
Missouri
•Polls close:7 p.m. CT/8 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:72 allocated out of 88
•Republican delegates:58 allocated out of 58
Missouri is the nation's leading bellwether state in presidential contests, voting for the winner in every general election since 1956. But the Show Me State's primary hasn't had much impact in past campaigns. This time, it may. The Republican contest is a rich, winner-take-all prize. John McCain is targeting the independent-minded suburbanites in St. Louis and Kansas City; Mike Huckabee conservative Christians in the Ozarks, which straddle the Missouri-Arkansas border. Mitt Romney has been running a close third. Among Democrats, a RealClearPolitics.com average of three recent statewide polls shows Hillary Rodham Clinton has lost her double-digit lead over Barack Obama.
Georgia
•Polls close:7 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:87 allocated out of 103
•Republican delegates:72 allocated out of 72
Georgia is the largest Southern state voting on Super Tuesday and a prime target, especially for Republican Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas. The high proportion of African-Americans — nearly half of the Democratic primary vote in 2004, according to surveys of voters as they left polling places — makes this a strong prospect for Democrat Barack Obama, too. In 1992, the Peach State boosted former Arkansas governor Bill Clinton by giving him a win on a day he lost in Maryland and Colorado. But regional loyalty alone isn't enough: The failure of John Edwards of North Carolina to win here in 2004 over John Kerry of Massachusetts was a final blow to Edwards' presidential hopes four years ago.
New York
•Polls close:9 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:232 allocated out of 281
•Republican delegates:101 allocated out of 101
New York's primary has occasionally been more of a boon for lawyers than candidates. In 2000, John McCain had to go to court to get on the ballot in the face of the state GOP's famously convoluted rules; in 1996, Steve Forbes spent $1 million to qualify. In 2008, the Empire State contest has a heavily favored home-state candidate, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, but Democratic rival Barack Obama is competing to pick up delegates here, too. Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani withdrew from the race last week and endorsed McCain, who already had been edging ahead in statewide polls. For Republicans, it's the biggest winner-take-all prize of the night.
Polling
Source: Average by RealClearPolitics.com of four Democratic and five Republican statewide polls Jan. 25-Feb. 2
Polling
Source: Average by RealClearPolitics.com of three Democratic and four Republican statewide polls Jan. 30-Feb. 2
Polling
Source: Average by RealClearPolitics.com of three statewide polls Jan. 22-Feb. 2
Polling
Source: Average by RealClearPolitics.com of four Democratic and five Republican statewide polls Jan. 23-Feb. 2
MORE SUPER STATES
Alabama
•Polls close:7 p.m. CT/8 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates at stake:52 of 60
•Republican delegates at stake:45 of 48
Alabama's primary in the past has been in June, when the nominations usually were settled. This time, Democrat Barack Obama could do well among the sizeable black population, likely to make up more than four in 10 Democratic primary voters. Among Republicans, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is targeting a fellow Southern state.
Alaska
•Democratic delegates:13 of 18
•Republican delegates:26 of 29
Precinct and congressional-district caucuses meet to choose delegates to state party conventions, where national convention delegates are chosen. Delegate allocation in both parties is proportional. Turnout is traditionally low. Still, a victory in the Last Frontier did boost Republican Pat Buchanan in 1996.
Arizona
•Polls close:7 p.m. MT/9 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:56 of 67
•Republican delegates:50 of 53
Arizona, which has been trying for years to become a key early state in the nomination process, has begun attracting more attention as it becomes more competitive. Once considered safely Republican, it re-elected a Democratic governor, Janet Napolitano, in 2006. She has endorsed Barack Obama. But Hillary Rodham Clinton could be helped because independents, a source of strength for her rival, can't vote in this primary. The Republican field has a home-state contender, four-term Sen. John McCain, who easily carried the winner-take-all primary in 2000.
Arkansas
•Polls close:7:30 p.m. CT/8:30 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:35 of 47
•Republican delegates:31 of 34
Arkansas' primary in the past was usually held in May and irrelevant to the nominations. This time, both contests have candidates with home-state ties: former governor Mike Huckabee from tiny Hope, birthplace of former president Bill Clinton, and Hillary Rodham Clinton, born in Illinois and now the senator from New York — but all too happy to remind voters that she was once the state's first lady.
Colorado
•Democratic delegates:55 of 71
•Republican delegates:0 of 46
Republicans hold a non-binding straw poll at their precinct caucuses, but state rules don't require the outcome to affect the selection of national convention delegates at the district caucuses and state convention that follow. Democratic precinct caucuses, like those in Iowa that opened the season, elect delegates allocated among candidates with at least 15% support. In the general election, Democrats see improving prospects in the Rocky Mountain states, one reason the national convention will be in Denver this summer.
Connecticut
•Polls close:8 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:48 of 60
•Republican delegates:27 of 30
In the past, the Connecticut primary has delivered quixotic victories to challengers who went on to lose the nomination: Edward Kennedy in 1980, Gary Hart in 1984 and John McCain in 2000. The home-state Democratic candidate, Sen. Chris Dodd, dropped out this year after a disappointing start in Iowa. The other senator, Democrat-turned-independent Joe Lieberman, has been out stumping — for Republican McCain. The state is in Hillary Rodham Clinton's backyard. A Hartford Courant poll last month gave Clinton and McCain double-digit leads.
Delaware
•Polls close:8 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:15 of 23
•Republican delegates:18 of 18
Delaware used to be the nation's leading bellwether state; it voted for every winning presidential candidate for nearly half a century, from 1952 to 1996. But its primary rarely has been influential. Home-state Sen. Joseph Biden made a second run for the Democratic nomination but withdrew after getting less than 1% in the Iowa caucuses. Barack Obama is airing TV ads here, and former president Bill Clinton last week stumped in nearby South Jersey for his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton. In the GOP, an unofficial straw poll at the annual Republican State Committee dinner Jan. 25 showed John McCain closely trailed by Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, who has since dropped out. The Republican contest is winner-take-all.
Idaho
•Democratic delegates:18 of 23
Democrats hold county caucuses to chose state convention delegates apportioned among candidates with at least 15% support. Every delegate counts: Barack Obama made a rare campaign stop in the state Saturday. The Republican primary is May 27.
Illinois
•Polls close:7 p.m. CT/8 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:153 of 185
•Republican delegates:57 of 70
Illinois' primary has been the critical last stop in several past campaigns. The vote here helped clinch nominations for Republicans Gerald Ford in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1988, and for Democrats Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1992. This time, Illinois moved up its primary from March to boost home-state Sen. Barack Obama, who led by more than 2-1 in a St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll last month. Still, Hillary Rodham Clinton also claims Land of Lincoln ties: She was born in a Chicago suburb. Illinois Republicans hold a presidential "beauty contest," but it doesn't affect the separate direct election of national convention delegates.
Kansas
•Democratic delegates:32 of 41
Democrats hold caucuses — they call them "local unit conventions" — that determine the loyalties of most of the pledged delegates to the national convention. Barack Obama has Sunflower State roots: His mother was born in Kansas. He held a rally last week in his grandfather's hometown, El Dorado, where he also picked up the endorsement of Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, a Democrat who in 2006 won a second term in the traditionally Republican state. Republican caucuses are Saturday.
Massachusetts
•Polls close:8 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:93 of 121
•Republican delegates:40 of 43
Massachusetts may be one of the most Democratic states in the nation, but the home-state contender in this presidential race is a Republican, former governor Mitt Romney. The Bay State primary generally rewards its favorite sons, producing wins for Michael Dukakis in 1988, Paul Tsongas in 1992 and John Kerry in 2004. Voters already have seen a lot of campaign ads because candidates often buy spots on Boston TV for the New Hampshire primary. Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton won in New Hampshire and led by 18 percentage points in a RealClearPolitics.com average of four statewide polls taken Jan. 9-30. Still, Barack Obama has landed the heavyweight endorsements: Sens. Kerry and Edward Kennedy and Gov. Deval Patrick.
Minnesota
•Democratic delegates:72 of 88
•Republican delegates:0 of 41
Both parties hold precinct caucuses, and the Democrats apportion convention delegates among candidates who get at least 15% support. Walter Mondale, the former Minnesota senator and 1984 Democratic presidential nominee, has endorsed Hillary Rodham Clinton, though the state's liberal traditions may favor Barack Obama. Republicans have a non-binding straw poll, but state rules don't require the outcome to affect the choice of national convention delegates at the district and state conventions that follow. Solidly Democratic in Mondale's heyday, the state now has a Republican governor and senator. That helped draw the Republican National Convention to St. Paul in September.
Montana
•Republican delegates:25 of 25
County Republican Central Committees convene caucuses, with GOP elected and party officials eligible to vote. The candidate with the most support statewide wins all the delegates. Democrats hold their primary June 3.
New Jersey
•Polls close:8 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:107 of 127
•Republican delegates:52 of 52
New Jersey's primary traditionally has been in June, after the nominations were settled. With an earlier date, the Garden State is a target for Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton. Another New York neighbor, Republican Rudy Giuliani, had high hopes here before he withdrew. That could help clear the way for John McCain, who already was edging ahead in statewide polls. The GOP contest is winner-take-all.
New Mexico
•Polls close:7 p.m. MT/9 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:26 of 38
New Mexico is a swing state that gets a lot of attention in general elections. Al Gore carried it in 2000 by just 365 votes. But its primary, traditionally in June, was held at a point when the nominations were long settled. This time, it had a home-state contender, Gov. Bill Richardson, but he dropped out after the New Hampshire primary without endorsing a rival. The state population has the nation's highest percentage of Hispanics, a group Hillary Rodham Clinton has dominated. The primary is party-run; voters can cast ballots by mail or at more than 150 caucus sites. The Republican primary is June 3.
North Dakota
•Democratic delegates:13 of 21
•Republican delegates:23 of 26
In the Republican caucuses, a candidate who wins two-thirds support or more statewide gets all the delegates. Otherwise, they are apportioned among those with at least 15%. Democratic precinct caucuses divide delegates among the candidates who receive at least 15% support.
Oklahoma
•Polls close:7 p.m. CT/8 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:38 of 47
•Republican delegates:38 of 41
Oklahoma, which is solidly Republican, gets little attention in general elections. Its Democratic primary did have some impact in 2004, when John Edwards and Wesley Clark vied here. The Sooner State gave Clark, a former NATO commander, his only win of the campaign, albeit by just half a percentage point. This time, Hillary Rodham Clinton had a double-digit lead in a SurveyUSA poll taken last week. Republican John McCain had a 9-percentage-point lead on Mike Huckabee.
Tennessee
•Polls close:7 p.m. CT/8 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:68 of 85
•Republican delegates:52 of 55
Tennessee is being targeted by Republican Mike Huckabee of neighboring Arkansas, especially with the departure of native son and former senator Fred Thompson from the race. Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton chose to campaign in the state instead of staying in South Carolina for its results the night of Jan. 26.
Utah
•Polls close:8 p.m. MT/10 p.m. ET
•Democratic delegates:23 of 29
•Republican delegates:36 of 36
Utah has been the most Republican state in the nation in six of the last eight presidential contests. The large Mormon population could boost Republican Mitt Romney, who gained stature here by heading the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. Given his edge in this winner-take-all state, other Republican candidates have spent their time elsewhere. Among Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are airing TV ads. The Salt Lake Tribune says it is the first time any presidential candidate has done that.
West Virginia
•Republican delegates:27 of 30
West Virginia Republicans hold a state presidential convention. All the delegates go to the candidate who carries more than 50% of the vote; runoffs are held if necessary. The Democratic primary is May 13.
Note: Democrats hold caucuses Tuesday in American Samoa to choose three delegates. Also, Democrats who live overseas, and are allocated 22 delegates, can cast ballots Feb. 5-12. Sources: Democratic and Republican national committees, The Almanac of American Politics, TheGreenPapers.com and RealClearPolitics.com. Graphics by Karl Gelles, USA TODAY.