Senators to test McCain's independent clout

WASHINGTON -- As a presidential candidate, Republican John McCain made his political name with independent voters in states such as New Hampshire.

Four GOP senators facing tough re-election battles because of the unpopular Iraq war, President Bush's sagging approval ratings and the shaky economy will put McCain's independent appeal to the test in November.

"I can't think of a Republican candidate who could have more of a positive impact for Republicans nationwide," said Sen. John Sununu, a freshman who faces a rematch with former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen.

Republicans have 23 Senate seats to defend in the fall, and four incumbents — Sununu, Susan Collins of Maine, Gordon Smith of Oregon and Norm Coleman of Minnesota — are among the most vulnerable. In New Hampshire, Maine and Oregon, voters who are not registered as Democrats or Republicans make up at least 25% of the electorate. (Minnesota voters, who do not register by party, elected independent and former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura as their governor in 1998.)

McCain has attracted independents by going against the GOP on campaign finance, immigration and global warming. Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said the deciding factor for GOP incumbents in November could be whether Democrats can succeed in efforts to "morph McCain into George Bush."

"The interesting thing about McCain is that he may not help anybody, but he's not a drag on anybody," she said.

Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the Senate Democrats' campaign committee, said these four GOP incumbents are each in political trouble for different reasons, and "John McCain is not the solution for any of them."

Some Democrats said independent voters are already shifting to them.

Kate Bedingfield, Shaheen's communication director, noted that in the New Hampshire primary of Jan. 8, McCain received about 88,500 votes — far less than the popular vote totals of either Democratic candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama. New Hampshire allows independents to vote in either political primary.

A Granite State poll released May 3 shows McCain winning a majority of independents against either Clinton or Obama. The same poll shows Sununu trailing Shaheen by 12 percentage points.

Sununu said independents and some Democrats are attracted to McCain because he speaks his mind, opposes tax hikes and has provided "strong and consistent" leadership on the challenges of Iraq. McCain "transcends party brands," he said.

A view of the other Senate races:

• Maine:

Collins, one of McCain's earliest supporters, is seeking re-election against Democratic Rep. Tom Allen in a state strongly opposed to the Iraq war. Maine twice elected independent Angus King as governor, in 1994 and 1998. Forty-one percent of voters are not registered as Democrats or Republicans.

Anthony Corrado, professor of government at Colby College, said Allen and the Democratic Party are chipping away at the independent credentials of Collins and McCain by linking them to Bush. "Tom Allen voted against the war and the (Bush) tax cuts from the start," he said.

• Oregon:

Smith was one of the first Republican senators to speak out against the Iraq war. He has stressed his ability to work across the aisle and holds town meetings with his home-state colleague, Democrat Ron Wyden. A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Smith leading either of two possible Democratic challengers, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley and lawyer Steve Novick.

William Lunch, a political scientist at Oregon State University, said McCain should be able to help Smith. Lunch said the state has long supported Republicans who break with their party, such as former senator and governor Mark Hatfield, who often opposed the GOP on foreign policy. "Oregon has long liked independent-thinking candidates," he said.

Monday, McCain will campaign in Oregon and discuss climate change. Smith will be back in Washington tending to Senate business.

• Minnesota:

Coleman was elected in 2002 when Bush's public support was near its zenith, after 9/11 and before the Iraq war began. Comedian Al Franken is among the Democrats trying to unseat him. Recent state polls show Coleman with a lead over Franken in a hypothetical matchup.

Democrats have carried Minnesota in eight straight presidential contests, but Bush lost the state by only 3 percentage points or less in his two races.

Sarah Janecek, publisher of Politics in Minnesota, an online political newsletter, has seen a rise in support for Democrats during Bush's troubled second term. "If you've got a Republican on the presidential side who can appeal to independents, that mitigates that," she said.