Clinton to end candidacy and announce support for Obama

WASHINGTON -- In the end, it took barely 24 hours for Hillary Rodham Clinton to adapt to her party's new political order.

The New York senator told reporters in a e-mail early today that she will end her quest for the Democratic presidential nomination on Saturday.

In it, she says that "on Saturday, I will extend my congratulations to Senator Obama and my support for his candidacy. … I have said throughout the campaign that I would strongly support Senator Obama if he were the Democratic Party's nominee, and I intend to deliver on that promise." The campaign said the event was moved from Friday to Saturday to allow more people to attend.

The news came after a day of hand-wringing and tea-leaf reading over Clinton's failure to concede the race to Obama on Tuesday night, after he had surpassed the 2,118 party delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

As the pair made back-to-back speeches Wednesday to an important group in presidential politics, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, it seemed like just another day on the campaign trail. But the primary season is over — and not a minute too soon for some Democrats.

While some in the party urged patience in allowing Clinton time to accept defeat, others said it was time to move on. Top Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, said in a pointed statement that "Democrats must now turn our full attention to the general election."

Even some Clinton supporters made clear that they were hoping for closure. Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., a home-state stalwart for Clinton, said it was "confusing" that she hadn't endorsed Obama. "There's only one candidate out there," he said on MSNBC. "The time has come."

Another backer, Hilary Rosen, said she was disappointed at Clinton's lack of "grace." By failing to concede, Rosen wrote at The Huffington Post, "she left her supporters empty, Obama's angry, and party leaders trashing her."

The former first lady's journey from flush front-runner to debt-ridden runner-up in the Democratic nomination race is a tale of overconfidence, bad choices and unfortunate timing.

Even so, Clinton finished the season on a winning streak, and as Obama became the first African-American presidential nominee by a major party, she made history as well. Her expertise on economic issues and her late emergence as a populist fighting for ordinary people helped her win more contests than she lost during the last three months. She earned more than 17 million votes and gave millions hope that they'd see a woman president before they die.

After months of frenetic campaigning, Clinton seemed to be downshifting slowly and edging into her new status. Though she did not acknowledge Obama as the nominee at her AIPAC appearance, she came close.

"The next Democratic president" will be committed to Israel's security, she said, and continued, "I know Sen. Obama understands what it is at stake here. … Let me be very clear: I know that Sen. Obama will be a good friend to Israel."

On the other hand, Clinton also underscored her differences with Obama, among them her support for a Senate resolution that labeled the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. (Obama said it could be interpreted as a blank check to attack Iran.) Her speech was more militant than his, and she received a more rousing reception.

The senator visited her campaign headquarters Wednesday and conferred by phone with party leaders and convention delegates.

"As of right now she is still a candidate for president and is taking a look at all of her options," spokesman Mo Elleithee said late in the afternoon.

As guests on cable TV pondered "what Hillary wants," some allies circulated petitions and letters aimed at pressuring Obama to embrace her as his running mate.

Obama and Clinton ran into each other in a hallway backstage at the AIPAC meeting and had a brief chat, with more to come.

"We are going to be having a conversation in the coming weeks," Obama said outside the U.S. Capitol. "I am very confident about how unified the Democratic Party is going to be to win in November."

In his turn at AIPAC, Obama continued praising Clinton. He called her "an extraordinary leader" who "made history alongside me over the last 16 months."

As he decides whether to invite Clinton to continue making history with him, Obama has her 16-month campaign to study. It's a mixed picture.

Hers to lose

From the day she entered the race in January 2007, Clinton asked people to give money simultaneously to her primary and general-election campaigns and thereby signaled that she saw herself as the inevitable nominee.

She based her strategy on flawed assumptions that her nationwide network and strong lead in national polls would quickly carry her to big-state victories and the nomination. She did not develop a broad base of donors or focus on how to win over voters who told pollsters they viewed her unfavorably. Above all, she did not compete seriously in some dozen caucus states.

In addition, political analysts say, she misread the mood of the electorate. Voters are clamoring for change. Large majorities of Americans have said in poll after poll that the Iraq war was a mistake, the country is on the wrong track and they disapprove of President Bush's job performance.

People are frustrated and angry and "really want to change the way business is done in Washington," says Leon Panetta, a Clinton backer and former chief of staff in the Clinton White House. "I'm surprised that their polling seemed to miss that entirely."

Yet Clinton pitched herself as a consummate insider: the voice of experience, 35 years of it, ready to be president on Day One and bring back the good times of her husband's two terms.

"They were locked into the illusion that this was 1996 and she was the incumbent," veteran Democratic strategist Bob Shrum says of Hillary and Bill Clinton.

Hillary Clinton won a raucous response each time she declared, "It took one Clinton to clean up after the first George Bush. It'll take another Clinton to clean up after this one." But the line was also a reminder of the two dynasties that have governed for 20 years.

"Some of my students say they have no recollection of anyone other than a Bush or Clinton in the White House," says Dan Coffey, 33, a political scientist at the University of Akron. "My whole life, every time I've had a chance to vote, it's either been a Bush or Clinton on top of the ticket."

Obama stuck to a simple message: The country wanted change and he'd deliver it. He also stuck to a strategy: Run in all 50 states and expand the electorate to offset the many Democrats who would remain loyal to the Clintons.

Former party chairman Steve Grossman, a fundraiser for Clinton, says Obama recognized caucuses as a "treasure trove of delegates" and understood the potential of Internet fundraising.

Grossman says Obama also was able to argue that "I may not have been in office that long, but I showed judgment at the very beginning by opposing this war" in Iraq. "Those three things were a powerful combination that made this improbable campaign so inordinately successful."

Underestimating Obama

In December, Clinton told ABC that her campaign was "poised and ready" for the long run. However, she said, "It's not a very long run. It'll be over Feb. 5."

It was a reference to Super Tuesday, when 1,681 delegates were at stake in 22 states. Clinton won nine states that night, but Obama won 13 and stayed even on delegates. The stalemate exposed a campaign short of money and plans.

"We did not allocate the resources well in advance to compete past Super Tuesday. That is the hole we dug," says Hassan Nemazee, Clinton's finance co-chair.

Clinton staff arrived in Wisconsin two weeks before the Feb. 19 primary found their Obama counterparts had been there for two months, Nemazee says. By then Obama had won 11 caucus states to Clinton's two. Asked why, chief strategist Mark Penn replied, "Our funds at the time were limited."

Clinton was never able to catch up to the delegates Obama won on Super Tuesday and a string of 11 subsequent wins.

She never caught up to Obama on money, either. From Jan. 1, 2007, to April 30 of this year, the Campaign Finance Institute reports, Obama raised $263 million for primaries while Clinton raised $188 million. In addition, she loaned herself $10 million and had $9 million in outstanding bills.

Despite Obama's money and victories, the Clintons seemed blind to his potential.

"They constantly underestimated Barack Obama," says Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network, which studies trends in new media and demographics. "They discounted him in a way which was not in sync" with his performance.

In part, Rosenberg says, that was because of the Clintons' "antiquated notion of how race plays out in American politics." He says they "made versions of the argument that white voters won't vote for a black man. That may have been true in America in the past but it certainly has not been true in this election."

While Obama won his share of white votes, black voters deserted Clinton. Her lead with that group vanished after Obama won nearly all-white Iowa. "Once he put aside this notion that he couldn't get support from white voters," Democratic strategist Bill Carrick says, "he just took off with African-American voters."

The Bill factor

Another problem for Clinton was that memories of the Clinton White House are not limited to peace and prosperity. "Most voters have very complicated feelings about Bill Clinton," Carrick says.

For his wife, the downside of the legacy includes scandal and impeachment, a polarizing image and the health-care reform project she botched as first lady in 1993-94. Obama will have to weigh that baggage, along with the costs and benefits of a running mate whose husband is a former president.

Bill Clinton is a magnet for attention, and not all of his campaign-trail forays were constructive. In January, he cast Obama's victory in South Carolina in racial terms by comparing it with Jesse Jackson's wins there in 1984 and 1988.

"There were moments when he clearly became somewhat of a distraction," Carrick says.

Looking to the future, columnists and pundits wondered what role Bill Clinton would play in a Hillary Clinton administration. The USA TODAY editorial board and other watchdogs, citing potential conflicts of interest, urged that he release the identities of donors to his presidential library and foundation.

The Clintons never did — but might have to if Hillary Clinton wants to be vice president. Obama is running as a champion of government transparency against a Republican, Sen. John McCain, who champions the same thing.

This spring only about four in 10 people in USA TODAY/Gallup polls said they considered her honest and trustworthy.

Clinton exacerbated the problem with episodes such as one in which she claimed that as first lady, she had landed in Bosnia under sniper fire. A videotape of her visit showed a child giving Clinton and her daughter, Chelsea, flowers during a peaceful welcome ceremony.

Even so, Clinton emerges from the race as a force in Democratic politics. Her future could hold a prominent Senate role, a Supreme Court nomination, a Cabinet post or perhaps that vice presidential slot.

"It would heal some wounds within the party," Marc Landy, a political scientist at Boston College, says of the Obama-Clinton ticket. But he says McCain could be the ultimate beneficiary: "He doesn't excite the conservatives. She energizes the right."