Obama Goes Globetrotting

July 19, 2008— -- As Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama began his globe-trotting tour in Afghanistan today, he faced shifting sands in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

When the presidential race field narrowed to two major candidates, both of them staked out clear positions.

Obama said the troop surge in Iraq would fail to cut violence or improve political reconciliation, calling Iraq "an impediment" to success in the war on terror, which he said should be focused on Afghanistan.

John McCain, Obama's likely Republican opponent, called Iraq the center of the war on terror, and famously speculated that the United States could maintain a presence there for as long as 100 years.

In political campaigns, as in war, the sands shift over time. Both candidates pointed that out -- about their rivals -- this week.

On Tuesday, Obama said pointedly: "The central front in the war on terror is not Iraq, and it never was."

In his radio address today, McCain fired back, saying, "We all remember quite well that he said the surge would fail, and today we know that he was wrong."

With the situation in Iraq improving, and Afghanistan mired in a worsening insurgent fight, Obama's trip -- one of the most high-profile job auditions in history -- will give him a high-profile opportunity to seize on the changing calculus of the war on terror.

"In Iraq, he's playing defense; in Afghanistan, he's trying to profit from an opportunity," said Michael O'Hanlon, a military analyst with the Brookings Institution.

Iraq's government presented one opportunity by endorsing Obama's position. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told the German magazine Der Spiegel in today's edition, "Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."

The White House inadvertently advertised Maliki's praise for the Democrat, sending out a Reuters story by mistake on the subject to White House reporters.

But McCain's campaign issued a response, sticking to his guns in his criticism of the Illinois Democrat.

"The difference between John McCain and Barack Obama is that Barack Obama advocates an unconditional withdrawal that ignores the facts on the ground and the advice of our top military commanders," a McCain campaign statement issued today said. "John McCain believes withdrawal must be based on conditions on the ground."

Obama's tour -- with stops in Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel and Europe -- could help him look presidential and well-informed in global affairs.

"It is very likely that he will look as if he has a very in-depth understanding of the players, the regions, the place names, the importance of the policy," Norman Ornstein, political analyst with the American Enterprise Institute, told ABC News.

Obama is likely to receive rapturous support in Europe, where Europeans are clamoring for regime change in the United States. And there to record the event under a national spotlight are the anchors from the three broadcast networks, including our own Charles Gibson.

Back at home, voters prefer Obama's stand on the economy, the environment, and virtually every major domestic issue. But an ABC News-Washington Post poll this week found voters find McCain more knowledgeable on world affairs by a wide margin, 63 percent to 26 percent.

Obama's tour of the war zones gives him perhaps the best chance in this campaign to gain ground in the one major area where voters trust McCain more. But McCain is certain not to give up that ground easily, and will be watching Obama's highly publicized trip for any missteps.

"You're faced with jet lag and you're fatigued going in. It's very easy to just stumble over a word or two and end up with a giant controversy," Ornstein said. "That's the nightmare scenario for Obama."

McCain is spending the weekend at a baseball game and closed-door fundraisers, ceding world attention to his globe-trotting rival.