Analysis: McCain gambles with surprise pick

DENVER -- John McCain shook up the presidential race Friday and targeted disaffected supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton with a vice presidential pick that defied the conventional wisdom.

Sarah Palin, the first-term governor of Alaska, has no experience in Washington and is unknown in national politics. She will be the least experienced nominee for national office by a major party since Richard Nixon picked the first-term Maryland governor, Spiro Agnew, as his running mate in 1968.

But she offers McCain benefits as well, including the possibility of exciting social conservatives in the Republican base and perhaps strengthening him among the women voters who make up a majority of the electorate. She will be the first woman on a national ticket since Democrat Walter Mondale chose Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate in 1984.

McCain demonstrated that he was willing to throw a long ball, a Hail Mary pass in an election in which more than eight in 10 Americans say they are dissatisfied with the country's direction.

And he managed to seize the spotlight from Barack Obama the morning after the Illinois senator accepted the Democratic nomination with a speech before 84,000 people at Invesco Field at Mile High here.

"What separates her from others is that at a time when Republicans have suffered from the taint of corruption, she represents clean politics," says John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in California. "The public stereotype of a Republican is a wrinkled old guy taking cash under the table. One way for Republicans to break the stereotype is with a female reformer."

Conservative commentator Pat Buchanan on MSNBC called it "the biggest political gamble, I think, just about in American political history."

Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who also had been mentioned as a possible running mate, praised Palin on CNN as "a breath of fresh air" but acknowledged, "I don't know too much about her."

Palin has a distinctive background: the first woman governor of Alaska, an independent-minded reformer elected in 2006, a fiscal conservative and someone with experience dealing with oil drilling and other energy issues.

She opposes abortion rights, is a lifetime member of the National Rifle Association and touts moose burgers as a favored cuisine. At 44, she is the mother of five children. Her older son is in the Army; her younger son, born in April, has Down Syndrome.

At the Dayton rally where McCain introduced her Friday, she called herself "a hockey mom."

"I predict any conservatives who have been lukewarm thus far in their support of the McCain candidacy will work their hearts out between now and November for the McCain-Palin ticket," says David Keene, president of the American Conservative Union.

"Conservatives will be thrilled with this pick," says conservative consultant Greg Mueller, a senior adviser to Steve Forbes' presidential campaign in 2000. He described her as "a blue-collar conservative woman who will excite the Republican party and lay out the welcome mat for independents and disaffected Clinton voters."

Democrats are likely to describe her in other ways — as unprepared for the presidency, for one. Obama spokesman Bill Burton, saying Palin had "zero foreign policy experience," said the choice raised questions about McCain's judgment. McCain's willingness to put her on the ticket may undercut his argument that Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois, lacks the grounding for the job.

"Certainly the choice of Palin puts to rest any argument about inexperience on the Democratic team," New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, said. Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel, also a Democrat, said, "Is this really who the Republican Party wants to be one heartbeat away from the presidency?"

Still, Nixon won in 1968 despite questions about Agnew's credentials, and the elder George Bush won in 1988 despite questions about the qualifications of his running mate, then-Indiana senator Dan Quayle.

Before Palin's name was announced, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe dismissed the idea that picking a female running mate would do much to boost McCain among women voters who disproportionately back Obama.

"McCain has a massive problem with women voters," Plouffe told USA TODAY on Thursday, "and a running mate is not going to matter with women voters."

It could, however, prompt the Obama campaign to deploy Hillary Rodham Clinton more extensively during the campaign than they had planned. A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Wednesday night, the day after the New York senator addressed the convention, found her voters moving in Obama's direction.

Before the convention, a USA TODAY survey showed that 30% of Clinton supporters said they would vote McCain or were undecided. On Wednesday, that number dropped to 21%, and the number who said they definitely would vote for Obama in November rose to 59% from 47%.

At the Dayton rally, Palin paid tribute to Ferraro and Clinton and made an explicit appeal to Clinton's voters.

"Hillary left 18 million cracks in the highest, hardest glass ceiling in America," she said, "but it turns out the women of America aren't finished yet and we can shatter that glass ceiling once and for all."

Palin's gender may complicate some of the attacks Democrats otherwise might make on the Republican vice presidential nominee, for fear they could come across as bullying. The Obama campaign initially sent reporters a critical statement in the name of spokesman Bill Burton, but then sent it out again in the name of a woman spokesman, Adrianne Marsh.

The Democratic vice presidential nominee, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, an aggressive debater in the Democratic primaries, is scheduled to debate Palin in St. Louis on Oct. 2.

Republican strategist Kevin Madden said the choice of Palin "shows that they're making a concerted effort to go after women voters who are upset that Barack Obama passed over Hillary Clinton." He called her "a reformer" and "a maverick."

"A quintessential John McCain pick," he said.