Oregon not really 'in play' this time

SALEM, Ore. -- Greg Fabos has been a campaign volunteer since supporting Eugene McCarthy for president 40 years ago. He says this is the most electric battle for the White House he's ever seen.

"I think people here are seeing that the country is in trouble, and they're ready to vote for change," the 66-year-old marketing consultant says.

The energy Fabos says he senses comes in spite of the fact that Oregon, for the first time in years, is being snubbed by the presidential contenders.

Neither candidate has made an Oregon campaign appearance.

There are few lawn signs and bumper stickers. And, since the primary election, neither campaign has spent any money advertising in the state, says Sarah Niebler, deputy director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project, which tracks political advertising nationwide.

"Oregon really is not in play," says Bill Lunch, chairman of Oregon State University's political science department.

While Oregon hasn't voted for a Republican president since choosing Ronald Reagan in 1984, it was considered a swing state in the past two elections, says Jim Moore, who teaches political science at Pacific University in Forest Grove, Ore.

In 2000, Democratic nominee Al Gore won Oregon by less than half a percentage point. Gore got 46.96% of the vote, while George W. Bush got 46.52%. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated Bush 51% to 47%.

This time around, Lunch says, the state was in play until candidate John McCain's bounce from the Republican National Convention faded in mid-September. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14, Democratic nominee Barack Obama is leading McCain 54% to 41%.

Door-to-door emphasis

More so than in years past, the campaigns are spending virtually all of their money in big battleground states, Moore says. Those include Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

In Oregon, "the McCain campaign is being run by guys with cellphones," Moore says. "That's a real surprise to me." He says the campaign has no Oregon director, and that all of its 11 designated field offices, listed as such on its website in late September, actually are existing Republican Party offices. McCain's Oregon campaign is being run out of its West Regional Headquarters in Nevada, Moore says.

Both campaigns, however, insist they are not taking the state for granted.

Rick Gorka, regional spokesman for the McCain campaign, calls the campaign in Oregon "very grass-roots."

"We're doing the door-to-door and phone banking that's necessary to win in November," he says.

The Obama campaign has 14 field offices across the state, Obama campaign spokeswoman Sahar Wali says. The campaign focused mostly on voter registration until the Oct. 14 registration deadline, Wali says, and now is encouraging people to vote early.

"We're registering Independents and also Republicans," Wali says. "There's a huge 'Republicans for Obama' push in Oregon. Our operation here in Oregon has been very focused on the field and on the ground game."

Still, there are no plans to have Obama visit the state before Nov. 4, Wali says.

Moore says the candidates also are paying little attention to Western issues such as water, public lands and fisheries, even though McCain and running mate Sarah Palin are from the Western states of Arizona and Alaska respectively, and Obama is from the Midwestern state of Illinois.

"We have this amazing mix that hasn't happened in a long time, if ever," he says. "Westerners are at the top of the ticket. Yet, they're using national issues to talk to Westerners."

Record number registered

Despite the lack of attention, Oregon has set a voter-registration record this year. According to the secretary of State's office, 2.17 million are registered to vote — an increase of just over 25,000 from the previous record of 2.14 million, set for the 2004 elections.

Since Jan. 1, nearly 200,000 first-time voters have signed up, says Don Hamilton, a spokesman for the secretary of State's office. About 47% of those new voters registered Democrat and about 18.5% registered Republican, he says. Overall, 43% of registered voters in the state are Democrat and 32% are Republican, secretary of State office figures show.

"The Republicans have been having trouble in Oregon ever since 2000," Lunch says. "Step by step, the state has been getting bluer."

Salem homemaker Sarah White, 28, says she would have liked to see the candidates visit but understands they must focus on swing states.

"It's nice to feel your state is responsible for tipping an election one way or another," says White, who is supporting Obama. "But I'm glad to be a relatively safe state."

McCain supporter Alan Chandler, 80, agrees. "I like to be ignored by the politicians sometimes," the retired Dallas, Ore., resident says. "I'm kind of glad I don't have to deal with that."

Loew reports for the Statesman Journal in Salem, Ore.