Democrats at 60: A Double-Edged Sword?

WASHINGTON, May 3, 2009— -- President Obama is on the verge of having executive power not seen in decades.

Democrats need 60 votes to fully control the Senate, where rules allow a minority of 41 to block any bill. The defection of former Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Arlen Specter to the Democratic Party last week gives them 59.

Now all eyes are on Minnesota's high court, which is expected to award that state's contested Senate seat to Democrat Al Franken, making him Democrat number 60.

"If the Democrats want to, they could certainly ramrod through bills now," Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., told Fox News.

No president has had that kind of control of Congress since Jimmy Carter in 1979. The prospect of having that kind of control might have some Democrats dreaming of sending Obama's agenda -- on health care, the environment and a new Supreme Court nominee -- sailing through Congress.

History, though, tells a different story.

"Remember, Carter couldn't get all the Democrats to go wherever he wanted," Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, told ABC News today.

But during the 1970s Congress was less polarized than it is today, with more moderate Democrats and Republicans. That has changed.

"There is a big gap between the Democrats on the left and the Republicans on the right, and that means if you don't have 60 votes it's very hard to see how you're going to create major policy change," Sarah Binder, a congressional expert at the Brookings Institution, told ABC News.

"I think that's a big danger for the Democrats," she said. "They have to very carefully calibrate how can we really hold together a solid 60 votes and how can we do it in a way that makes durable policy changes."

Obstacle No. 1: Specter's independent streak, on display today on NBC's "Meet the Press," where he said, "I did not say I would be a loyal Democrat. I did not say that."

Among Specter's first acts as a Democrat was to vote against the president's budget outline.

Then there are the conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats.

"There's no guarantee that the so-called moderate Democrats are going to go along with everything President Obama wants," Hatch said. "Now they have to stand up and if they don't stand up and vote in the best interests of their states and the Constitution, it could cost them their jobs."

Voters Punish Parties That Control White House, Congress

It wouldn't be the first time. Voters tend to punish parties that hold both the presidency and Congress.

"There is certainly the danger that unified Democratic party control could backfire," Binder said. "That's sort of what we saw with [former President] Clinton and Democrats in the '94 elections."

That is a lesson learned over and over again, not just by Clinton but also by presidents Carter and George W. Bush.

With so much now at stake, Republicans are making a stand in Minnesota.

The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Texas Sen. John Cornyn, has threatened to launch the political equivalent of "World War III" if Democrats seek to seat Franken before GOP rival Norm Coleman completes a federal court challenge, although Republicans acknowledge that could take years to resolve.