The Voters Most Likely to Change Their Minds After Tonight's Debate

— -- Almost 20 percent of Americans surveyed said they could change their mind about the presidential election based on tonight’s face-off between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, according to the latest ABC News/Washington poll.

In fact, 6 percent of Americans said there’s a “good chance” that tonight could swing their vote one way or another — more than the margin between the two candidates in most national polls over the last month.

Here are the groups to watch for during tonight’s debate:

1. Young voters. Almost 3 in 10 young voters (28 percent) polled said they could switch their vote based on tonight’s face-off between Clinton and Trump. A broad 60 percent of these voters went for President Barack Obama in 2012, but many are threatening to vote for third-party candidates Gary Johnson or Jill Stein this year.

2. People who don’t like either candidate. A good number of Americans surveyed who said they don’t like either major party candidate said they could change their minds tonight. Twenty-seven percent of Americans who have an unfavorable view of both Clinton and Trump said they could change their minds, versus only 13 percent of those who like at least one of them.

3. Bernie Sanders supporters. A quarter of Americans polled who backed the Vermont senator during the Democratic primaries (26 percent) said they might flip candidates based on tonight’s debate. Only 74 percent of them said they’re voting for Clinton, with 9 percent going for Trump and 12 percent split between Johnson and Stein.

4. Independents. A quarter of Americans (24 percent) surveyed who are not affiliated with either political party said their votes could be up in the air during tonight’s debate. Trump has a statistically insignificant advantage among this group, 43 percent to Clinton’s 38 percent, with 10 percent going for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein.

5. People who are on the fence about voting. People who might not show up to the polls are also more likely to consider switching their votes. Only 11 percent of Americans polled who have followed the race “very closely” and 14 percent of those who were “absolutely certain” they will vote said they could change their minds. That’s compared with 24 percent and 25 percent of those who have followed the race less closely and were less certain to vote, respectively.

6. Unenthusiastic voters. Respondents who were “very enthusiastic” about voting for Clinton and Trump were largely set in stone: Only 9 percent of “very enthusiastic” Clinton backers and 3 percent of “very enthusiastic” Trump supporters said they could change their minds. That’s compared with 22 percent of less enthusiastic Clinton backers and 18 percent of less enthusiastic Trump supporters.

7. Weaker partisans and ideologues. Very strong partisans were less likely to be open to changing their votes tonight: Just 10 percent of strong conservatives, 12 percent of liberal Democrats and 6 percent of conservative Republicans said the debates could change their votes. White men without a college degree (13 percent) and people who make $100,000 per year or more (11 percent) were also less likely to be open to a flip tonight.

Poll results come from an ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Sept. 25. The survey was conducted by landline and cellular telephones Sept. 19 to 22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including 651 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect, for the full sample and 4.5 points for likely voters.