AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Hawaii's state primaries

WASHINGTON -- Voting concludes Saturday in Hawaii’s state primaries, where candidates for Congress and the Legislature will compete for their parties’ nominations.

Hawaii’s primaries for Senate and House should set the stage for much-needed safe wins for Democrats in November as the party faces tough contests across the country in its bid to control both chambers heading into the next presidential administration.

At the top of the ballot is the Senate race, where Democrat Mazie Hirono seeks a third term. She is expected to easily win the primary against retired computer engineer Ron Curtis and salesman Clyde Lewman. Curtis was the Republican nominee against Hirono in 2018 and against Democratic Rep. Ed Case in 2020, receiving 29% and 28% of the general election vote, respectively. Lewman ran for governor in 2022, placing last in the Democratic primary with 0.1% of the vote. Hirono had $2.3 million in her campaign treasury as of mid-July, while neither challenger has filed a campaign finance report with the Federal Election Commission, as required.

The Republican nominee will be the winner of a six-way primary. Army veteran and community officeholder Adriel Lam and former state Rep. Bob McDermott are the only candidates who reported raising any money for the race, although both trail Hirono significantly. Lam had just shy of $4,400 in the bank as of mid-July, while McDermott reported cash reserves of less than $10. McDermott ran for the Senate in 2022, receiving 26% of the vote against Democratic incumbent Brian Schatz.

Case has also drawn a nominal Democratic primary challenge in the 1st Congressional District. His opponent is Cecil Hale, who also has not reported his campaign finance activity to the FEC. Case was first elected to replace longtime Democratic Rep. Patsy Mink, who died in office in 2002. He is now seeking a sixth full term. Republican Patrick Largey is unopposed for the Republican nomination.

In the 2nd Congressional District, first-term Democratic Rep. Jill Tokuda and Republican Steve Bond are both unopposed for their parties’ nominations.

In the Legislature, House Speaker Scott Saiki faces a Democratic primary challenge from former state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto in the 25th District. Iwamoto fell 161 votes short of defeating Saiki in the 2022 primary.

About half of the Hawaii’s 25 state Senate seats and all 51 state House seats are up for election this year. Democrats hold overwhelming supermajorities in both chambers.

A look at what to expect on Saturday:

Primary day

The Hawaii state primaries will be held Saturday. All polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 1 a.m. EDT Sunday.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for the Senate, the House, the state Senate and the state House.

Who gets to vote

Any registered voter in Hawaii may participate in any party’s primary.

Decision notes

Hawaii has four major counties, with Honolulu County by far having the largest population. Hawaii County is a distant second, followed by Maui and Kauai counties.

In the 2022 Republican primary for the Senate, McDermott won statewide by posting a 20-point lead in Honolulu County, while narrowly losing the other three counties. Curtis won Honolulu County with 41% of the vote in his 2020 Republican congressional primary, but that won’t easily translate into votes in a Democratic primary against Hirono, who has held elective office in state almost continuously since 1981.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Hawaii are automatic if the vote margin is 100 votes or less or 0.25% of the total votes cast for a contest, whichever is smaller. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of November 2022, there were 861,358 registered voters in Hawaii.

In the primaries that year, turnout was 31% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 8% in the Republican primary. Voting in Hawaii is conducted predominantly by mail, although voters have the option to cast their ballots in-person at a voting center.

As of Tuesday morning, more than 159,000 mail ballots had been cast of the approximately 816,000 ballots that had been mail out.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 state primaries, the AP first reported results at 1:55 a.m. EDT, nearly an hour after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 5:06 a.m. EDT with about 82% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 87 days until the November general election.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.