In Wisconsin, Trump Sees a Ceiling, While Sanders Finds His Sweet Spot (EXIT POLL)

— -- Anti-Donald Trump voters coalesced around Ted Cruz in the Wisconsin presidential primary, raising the specter of a ceiling for the GOP frontrunner. In the Democratic race, young voters and men handed Bernie Sanders a fresh chance to exploit Hillary Clinton’s vulnerabilities on style and substance alike.

While Trump finished about as well as usual in most groups, Cruz far outperformed his support in previous primaries, running +35 points among voters looking for an experienced candidate, +25 among mainline Republicans and voters focused on shared values and +24 those who cited the economy as their main concern and among strong conservatives.

Those groups stood out in the network exit poll, analyzed for ABC News by Langer Research Associates. But Cruz eclipsed his usual numbers across the board – suggesting a generalized, not issue-specific, anti-Trump vote.

Telling examples included voters looking for a candidate who “shares my values” or who “can bring needed change.” Trump’s done poorly with values voters in the past, and did so again, with just 10 percent support. The difference was that Cruz won 65 percent of values voters in Wisconsin, up from his previous average of 40 percent.

Bringing needed change, by contrast, has been a better Trump group – he’s won voters focused on this attribute by 2-1 over Cruz, 46-23 percent, in previous contests. In Wisconsin, by contrast, it was a 42-42 percent tie in this group – again similar to previous results for Trump, far better for Cruz.

Some of this reflected the polarizing nature of Trump’s candidacy. Six in 10 Trump voters in Wisconsin said they were excited about what he’d do as president. But more than half of Cruz’s supporters, and two-thirds John Kasich’s, said they were “scared” of what Trump would do in the White House – a remarkable rejection of the leading candidate in the race.

Notably, among Cruz’s own voters, only a quarter were excited about what he’d do as president – further suggesting that he garnered substantial anti-Trump, not necessarily, pro-Cruz, support.

Further, six in 10 Kasich and Cruz voters said that if no candidate wins a majority of delegates, the convention should decide the nominee – while 83 percent of Trump voters said the candidate with the most votes should be the nominee, even if he lacks a majority of delegates.

Another question showing the party’s rifts asked voters what they’d do in November if either Trump or Cruz were the nominee. Among those who didn’t support Trump on Tuesday, just four in 10 said they’d fall in line if he won the nomination; the rest divided between backing a third-party candidate, voting for Clinton (if she’s the nominee) or sitting it out. If Cruz were the nominee, non-Cruz voters said largely the same thing.

While Trump held on to most of his previous support levels there was one exception – he did less well, and Cruz especially better, among voters focused on electability. Although they were a small group, Cruz won seven in 10 Wisconsin GOP voters who cared most about the candidate who can win in November, up from 22 percent in previous contests. Trump won just two in 10 of these voters – down from a third previously.

Forty-five percent said they were interested in an experienced candidate rather than an outsider (it’s averaged 41 percent in previous contests) – and Cruz won seven in 10 of those voters, more than twice his average, 33 percent.

Other Trump issues simply played less well. Sixty-one percent supported legal status for undocumented immigrants, a new high this cycle. And “anger” at the federal government, at a third, was lower than its average in previous states, 40 percent.

Time of decision was another result marking challenges for Trump. Among the 37 percent who picked their candidate more than a month ago, he won half, Cruz 38 percent and Kasich 10 percent. Among the more than six in 10 who decided in the last month, by contrast, Trump’s support was sliced to 25 percent, while Cruz won 54 percent, Kasich 18.

Something of an exception for Cruz was moderates – he underperformed in this group compared with others. But there weren’t a whole lot of them – 73 percent of Wisconsin GOP voters identified themselves as conservatives, a record in exit polls back to 1976.

The Democratic Race

In the Wisconsin Democratic contest, Sanders benefitted both from the demographics and from advantages over Clinton in excitement, inspiration and perceived honesty alike.

He won particularly broad support from men, 63 percent – better than anywhere save New Hampshire and Vermont – while splitting women evenly with Clinton. He won liberals by 18 points, and they made up a record share of the state’s primary electorate by a wide margin. He won whites under age 45 by a huge margin, with 78 percent support, among his best results in this group to date.

As in other Northern states – but not in the South – Sanders also ran competitively among nonwhites younger than 45, winning them by 56-43 percent.

Whites accounted for 83 percent of voters in Wisconsin; their large numbers hurt Clinton, given her broad support (74 percent) among nonwhites age 45 and older. But she also lost whites by bigger-than-usual margins, reflecting Sanders’ resonance on personal attributes and issues.

The Sanders-Clinton dichotomy appeared in results on which candidate is seen as more inspiring – more picked Sanders, 59 percent – vs. who’d be likeliest to beat Trump in November – more picked Clinton, 54 percent. Nearly nine in 10 identified Sanders as honest and trustworthy, vs. 58 percent who said the same about Clinton. And twice as many were excited about what Sanders would do in office as said the same about Clinton, 33 percent vs. 14 percent.

Sixty-three percent of Wisconsin Democratic primary voters said they were looking chiefly for a candidate who “cares about people like me” or who “is honest and trustworthy” (eight points more than average in previous contests) and Sanders won these groups by wide margins, with 70 percent and 83 percent support, respectively, exceeding his usual levels in both cases. Clinton came back with broad support among voters who cared more about experience or electability – but there were substantially fewer of them.

Sanders benefitted as well from a focus on income inequality – three in 10 cited it as their top issue of concern, vs. an average of 25 percent in previous races. And he won two-thirds of those who picked it.

It could have been worse for Clinton; she was aided by the fact that mainline Democrats accounted for a bigger-than-usual share of primary voters – 70 percent, up from 62 percent in 2008 and a record in the state. She did much better with Democrats than with independents, a strongly pro-Sanders group, here as elsewhere. That said, Clinton only split Democrats with Sanders; in previous races, on average, she’s won them by 2-1.

Demonstrating Sanders’ unusual strength, he ran competitively with Clinton, 51-47 percent, in who’d be the best commander-in-chief. And he won by particularly wide margins among those very worried about the economy’s direction, those who expect life for the next generation of Americans to be worse than it is today and those who think trade with other countries takes away U.S. jobs. Finally, he won 79 percent of those who favor more liberal policies than Barack Obama’s; Clinton won those who want to continue Obama’s policies – but by less of a margin.

It’s an open question what Sanders’ win in Wisconsin – or Cruz’s, for that matter – will do in the eventual delegate math. But the results promised one outcome without doubt: Two months in, the two parties’ battles go on.