POLL: Confidence Rests After Recent Slide
Confidence paused this week, steadying after fall to its lowest in four years.
Dec. 11, 2007 — -- Consumer confidence paused this week, steadying after a fall to its lowest level in four years.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -23 on its scale of +100 to -100 after dropping nine points in four weeks to -24 last week, its lowest since spring 2003. The CCI has been in negative double digits for 18 straight weeks, matching its slump following Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
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The break this week coincided with some slightly brighter economic news. The Labor Department reported positive job growth for November with low unemployment. And gas prices, though still high at $3 a gallon, dropped 6 cents this past week -- the biggest one-week drop since August.
Still, there's plenty to worry about with continued trouble in the housing and credit markets, and forecasts for higher home heating bills. In a separate ABC/Post poll this week, only 28 percent of Americans said the economy's in good shape, the fewest since early 2003.
INDEX – The ABC/Post CCI is composed of public ratings of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate -- and all are at or near their lows for the year. Just 30 percent said the economy is in good shape, the same as last week, matching the 2007 low and 10 points below both the long-term and annual averages.
Thirty-one percent call it a good time to buy things, down 5 points since early November and a point off of the year's low last week. Fifty-four percent rate their own finances positively, down 4 points in the past month and also a point away from the 2007 low, reached in late August.
TREND – At -23, the CCI is one point shy of its four-year low, reached last week. It's ending the year in much tougher shape than it started. The CCI averaged -2 in the first quarter of the year but has struggled since, averaging -9 in the second quarter (including a 12-point drop in May to June), -12 in the third quarter (with a record one-week drop of 9 points in August) and -18 since October. Before the breather this week, the index had dropped nine points over the previous four weeks.
Even with this rough patch, the overall index for the year remains just one point under its all-time average, -9. While far below its record high, +38 in January 2000, it remains much better than its record low, -50 in February 1992.
GROUPS – As usual, the CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +5 among higher-income people, while -42 among those with the lowest incomes, -11 among those who've been to college while -45 among high-school dropouts, -22 among whites but -35 among blacks and -12 among men while -33 among women.
Partisan differences are their largest since mid-September: The index is +18 among Republicans but -25 among independents and -47 among Democrats.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY – Thirty percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 30 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES – Fifty-four percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 54 percent last week. The highest was 70 percent last reached in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE – Thirty-one percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 30 percent last week. The highest was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 20 percent in fall 1990.
METHODOLOGY – Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Dec. 9, 2007. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.