POLL: Confidence Stuck in a Rut
Consumer confidence is in a three-week holding pattern.
March 25, 2008 — -- Consumer confidence is stuck in a three-week holding pattern, hovering above its recent lows but still significantly below its long-term average.
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, at -31 on its scale of +100 to -100, has remained at -30 or lower for the past two months, the longest such run in 14 years. While the CCI rebounded early this month since bottoming out in February at -37 -- its lowest point since 1993 -- that upturn has leveled off.
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Consumer concerns continue amid signs of a slowing economy: the Federal Reserve last week responded to credit concerns by lowering the fed funds rate by three-quarters of a point; gas, although down 3 cents is still at a costly $3.26 per gallon; and stocks zigzagged between big gains and huge sell-offs all week.
INDEX – The ABC News CCI is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate. This week 55 percent rate their personal finances positively -- traditionally the strongest of the three measures -- slowly rebounding from hitting its 14-year low point of 49 percent last month. Ratings of personal finances are now just 2 points below the long-term average in weekly polls since late 1985.
Only 20 percent rate the national economy positively, down 11 points since the beginning of the year and half of its long-term average of 40 percent. Twenty-nine percent say it's a good time to buy things, the same as last week, and 9 points below its long-term average.
TREND – At -31, the CCI is exactly where it was last week, and remains a point below its 2008 average, its lowest since 1993. Although it did improve 7 points in the first half of this month, it still has much ground to gain from a 17-point drop over a five-week span in January and February.
The index today is much closer to its record low, -50 in February 1992, than to its all-time high, +38 in January 2000.
GROUPS – The CCI as usual is higher in better-off groups. It's 13 among higher-income people, while -71 among those with the lowest incomes, -24 among those who've been to college while -48 among high school dropouts, -28 among whites but -50 among blacks and -25 among men while -36 among women.
Partisan differences remain: The index is -1 among Republicans, but -37 among independents and -46 among Democrats.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC News CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY – Twenty percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 21 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES – Fifty-five percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 53 percent last week. The highest was 70 percent, last reached in January 2000. The lowest was 42 percent March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE – Twenty-nine percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 29 percent last week. The highest was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000; the lowest, 20 percent in fall 1990.
METHODOLOGY – Interviews for the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending March 22, 2008. The results have a 3-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.