POLL: Confidence Settles in Low Territory
Confidence holding within a tight 2-point range since the beginning of June.
July 1, 2008— -- Consumer confidence stalled this week, unable to break out of its five-week rut as gas prices edged higher.
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -43 on its scale of +100 to -100, holding within a tight 2-point range since the beginning of June. But confidence is still in bad shape: It's 33 points below its long-term average in 22 years of weekly polls, and just finished off its worst quarter since the first of 1992. The only glimmer of hope is that it has rebounded slightly from its record low, -51, on May 25.
Click here for PDF with charts and data table.
Consumers have yet to see a break in the deluge of negative economic news. Gasoline prices ticked up two cents to $4.10 a gallon as the holiday weekend approaches, stocks plunged Thursday to a low last hit in September 2006, and U.S. auto sales tumbled with Ford, GM and Toyota all reporting huge declines in June.
INDEX – The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate. Only 15 percent rate the national economy positively, down 16 points in 2008 and 25 points below the long-term average. It's only 8 points off the all-time low of 7 percent, last reached in early 1992.
Just 22 percent say it's a good time to buy things, 3 points off the record low set in May, down 9 points on the year, and 16 points below the long-term average. Less than a quarter of Americans have rated the buying climate positively for 12 weeks straight, the longest period since a run of 14 weeks in late 1991.
As usual more, 49 percent, rate their own finances positively, but that's been less than half for nine weeks, the longest streak since the summer of 1993. It's 7 points off the all-time low from March 1993, down 9 points this year and 8 points below the long-term average.
TREND – Despite the recent pause, the index is miles from where it began the year, -20. It's fallen 23 points since then, hit a record low, -51, at the end of May, and just completed its worst quarter since the first of 1992. Halfway through the year, the CCI has averaged -37, on pace for the worst year since 1993, and has been at or below -40 for 11 weeks. It's not been that low for that long since late 1992.
At -43, consumer confidence is 6 points below its 2008 average, well below its long-term average of -10 and a far cry from its high, +38 in January 2000.
GROUPS – The CCI is higher in better-off groups, although after a positive bump last week among higher income Americans, now at -3, the index is once again negative across the board. It's -67 among those with the lowest incomes, -31 among people who've been to college while a grim -77 among high-school dropouts, matching the lowest since July 1992. It's -40 among whites while -61 among blacks. Unusually, the index is slightly lower among men, -44, than women, -41.
Partisan differences remain: The index is -22 among Republicans, compared with -39 among independents and -56 among Democrats.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC News CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY – Fifteen percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 14 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES – Forty-nine percent say their own finances are excellent or good; the same as last week. The best was 70 percent, last reached in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE – Twenty-two percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 23 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000; the worst was 19 percent, which happened twice in May.
METHODOLOGY – Interviews for the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending June 30, 2008. The results have a 3-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.