POLL: Economic Gloom Runs Strong Two Months from Election Day
Consumer confidence is within striking distance of its record low.
Sept. 9, 2008— -- The election campaign enters its post-Labor Day sprint with the economy dominating the political landscape and consumer confidence within striking distance of its record low in 22 years of ABC News polls.
ABC's Consumer Comfort Index stands at -47 on its scale of +100 to -100, the same as last week and 4 points from its lowest on record, -51 in May. Just 14 percent of Americans rate the national economy positively, 21 percent call it a good time to buy things and 45 percent say they their own finances are good, tying the year's low.
Click here for PDF with charts and data table.
Other economic indicators are troubling as well. Unemployment's topped 6 percent for the first time in five years, the federal government's seized mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and gas prices, while down the past two months, are nonetheless at $3.65 a gallon, 29 percent higher than a year ago.
In a separate ABC News/Washington Post poll on the election, 41 percent of registered voters call the economy the single most important issue in their choice for president, consistent all summer long. With a bounce from the Republican National Convention, John McCain has narrowed Barack Obama's advantage in trust to handle the economy from 11 points to just 5 points.
INDEX – The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of their finances, the national economy and the buying climate. As noted just 14 percent rate the economy positively, down 17 points from the start of the year and 25 points below the long-term average.
Forty-five percent rate their personal finances positively, a tie for this year's lowest, reached last week and in late May, and just 3 points off the record low in March 1993.
In the third measure, fewer than a quarter of Americans have rated the buying climate positively for a record 22 weeks straight. Today's 21 percent is 3 points below the 2008 average, and 17 points from the average in weekly polls since late 1985.
TREND – The index fell from -20 at the beginning of the year to -51 in late May, gained a bit then headed back down. It's stagnated since late July, hovering between -47 and -50. The CCI's -40 for the year so far is just 4 points from its worst full year, 1992.
GROUPS – The index is higher in better-off groups, but negative across the board: -1 among people with the highest incomes vs. -72 among those with the lowest, -38 among people who've been to college vs. -60 among high-school dropouts, -58 among blacks vs. -43 among whites and -59 among renters vs. -41 among homeowners. The gap between whites and blacks is smaller than usual and the customary gender gap is almost nonexistent, -44 and -48 among men and women, respectively.
Partisan differences are strong, but the index is negative across party lines, from -22 among Republicans to -51 among independents and -60 among Democrats.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC News CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY – Fourteen percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 13 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES – Forty-five percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 45 percent last week. The best was 70 percent, last reached in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE –Twenty-one percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 21 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000.
METHODOLOGY – Interviews for the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Sept. 7, 2008. The results have a 3-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.