Getting Saddam May Not Be Easy

March 17, 2003 -- Eliminating Saddam Hussein will be a critical part of U.S. strategy in the event of war with Iraq, military experts say.

In the event of war, Pentagon planners hope to take out the Iraqi leader in an air blitz that would have 10 times the firepower of the opening bombardment of the 1991 Gulf War.

Removing Saddam from the chain of command would paralyze the Iraqi military and lead to a quicker victory for the United States and its allies, it is hoped.

"Iraq is Saddam Hussein. He controls everything," said retired Air Force Gen. Chuck Horner, who commanded the air war in 1991.

But, Horner said, it may not be easy to get rid of the Iraqi leader.

"To eliminate Saddam Hussein has got to be one of the hardest jobs in the world," Horner said, noting that Saddam survived numerous attempts by the U.S. military to target him in 1991, as well as assassination attempts from inside his own regime.

Intelligence Failed to Pinpoint Saddam in 1991

In the 1991 war, allied forces launched 260 air attacks on "leadership" targets, such as bunkers, party headquarters and military command centers, in an attempt to eliminate Saddam and his top aides.

Horner says he received lots of intelligence about Saddam's movements from Iraqi informants and U.S. special forces on the ground, but nothing conclusive. He acknowledged that there was never a moment that the allied command knew either where Saddam was at a given moment or where he was going to be.

"If we'd have had definitive knowledge … we probably would have dropped a bomb on him," Horner said. "The fact that Saddam Hussein's alive indicates that we didn't know where he was."

An Elusive Target

During his quarter-century in power, Saddam is believed to have survived numerous assassination and coup attempts.

"He's very paranoid, and with good reason," said former CIA Director James Woolsey.

According to Woolsey, Saddam's security is all but impenetrable. Reports from inside Iraq say the Iraqi leader sleeps in a different bed every night and often travels underground in a network of tunnels. He is said to wear a bulletproof fedora at times.

Intelligence analysts say Saddam has many doubles who make public appearances in his stead, in an effort to confuse attempts to pin down his location.

And when Saddam sees visitors, they must go through elaborate security measures, including body searches and even X-rays, according to some accounts. "They inspect everything. Two people inspect you — even the socks," said Abass al-Janabi, who was personal secretary to Saddam's son Odai before defecting in 1998. "He's afraid of assassination. He know very well that people doesn't like him."

One of Saddam's most effective security measures, according to analysts, is instilling fear by responding to any threat to his life with brutal retaliation.

When Saddam learned of a coup being planned by military officers in 1995, he reacted by having the rebellious officers killed in acid baths, according to Bob Baer, a former CIA operative who tried to arrange U.S. support for the plot. "It eats away their skin over the course of I don't know how many minutes," said Baer, adding, "It's a bad way to go."

Finding Him on the Ground

If Saddam manages to thwart attempts from the air, U.S. forces will also have the option of hunting for him on the ground.

Woolsey believes that if the United States attacks, Saddam will try to hide out in order to prolong the war in the hope that casualties among Iraqi civilians will eventually force the Americans to stop fighting.

With his options for hideouts limited by minority groups opposed to his regime — the Kurds in the north and the Shiites in the south — Saddam will probably go to ground in central Iraq between Baghdad and Tikrit, his ancestral home and power base, Woolsey believes.

Even if he is confined to one area of the country, it may still be difficult for U.S. ground forces to track him down. "Without a good human intelligence source next to Saddam, it's going to have to be a house-to-house search," said Baer. "It could take a long time."

Baer and Woolsey believe that the most likely scenario for U.S. forces to find Saddam is if someone close to him betrays him. If it appears that Saddam's regime will collapse, his lieutenants might turn on him in an effort to win leniency from the United States for their own role in the regime.

"It is rats deserting a sinking ship," said Baer, "because a lot of these people, they've got their self-interest and right now they're not quite convinced there's going to be a war ... Once the troops commit, I think the rats will start coming out, jumping ship, and then we'll get a break."

If He Slips the Net

If Saddam evades all efforts to catch him, and somehow disappears, Horner does not believe he will remain a threat to the international community. "If he goes on the run, he's done. He's finished. Because he has no more yes men. He doesn't have the Army. He doesn't have secret police. He's done."

But Baer believes Saddam could remain a long-term problem for the United States if he escapes into what Baer calls "the Arab basement" — if only as a symbol of defiance to American power.

"It's a loss of face, and face matters so much … in the Middle East," Baer said. "Our image of invincibility — which is as important as tanks and airplanes — will be seriously hurt if he gets away just as it has with bin Laden. … And with each minute that ticks off that we don't get him we're going to lose face."