Analyzing Day 2: Heat keep Wade and flexibility for 2016
— -- The second day of NBA free agency wasn't quite as busy as the opening 24 hours, but still featured a number of notable deals. That pace will have to slow at some point, since 14 of the top 19 free agents, by my value projections, have already agreed to new contracts.
For now, here's a look at Thursday's deals and what they mean.
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Dwyane Wade
Team: Miami Heat (re-signed)
Contract: One year, $20 million
What it means: The Heat and Wade compromised, agreeing to a one-year deal that reimburses Wade for some of the money he left on the table by opting out a year ago -- he'll make nearly $4 million more than the $16.1 million he was originally scheduled to make in 2015-16. Miami wins by maintaining flexibility for the summer of 2016, when re-signing Wade to a longer contract at a lower annual rate will give the Heat more room to pursue a max free agent and try to re-sign center Hassan Whiteside.
What's next: Miami president Pat Riley managed to secure a meeting with LaMarcus Aldridge on Thursday night, though with Wade's salary on the books it's hard to imagine how the Heat could clear enough space to sign Aldridge outright. A sign-and-trade with the Portland Trail Blazers would appear to be Miami's only avenue to landing Aldridge. More likely, the Heat will stand relatively pat after re-signing Wade and Goran Dragic. Miami's next move could be trying to trim its tax bill. The Heat are currently eight figures over the tax line and would be subject to the harsh repeater tax as taxpayers three of the past four seasons.
Greg Monroe
Team: Milwaukee Bucks
Contract: Three years, approximately $50 million
What it means: The Bucks filled their biggest need at center with a 25-year-old veteran just entering his prime in Monroe, who looks like a major upgrade on offense. Monroe's fit is a little more questionable defensively, but his low maximum salary makes him a good buy. I project his value at $69 million over the next three years, which means Monroe will almost certainly opt to become a free agent again in the summer of 2017 rather than playing out his contract.
What's next: Milwaukee traded reserve forward Jared Dudley to the Washington Wizards on Thursday evening, meaning signing Monroe won't quite use up all the Bucks' cap space. Alas, Milwaukee already has 15 players under guaranteed contract, so the remaining $3-5 million may go unused.
Monta Ellis
Team: Indiana Pacers
Contract: Four years, $44 million
Lavoy Allen
Team: Pacers (re-signed)
Contract: Three years, $12 million
What it means: The Pacers are an ideal fit for Ellis, who's functionally a point guard at this stage of his career. Indiana's nominal point guard, George Hill, is big enough to defend shooting guards and a good enough shooter to be dangerous off the ball. Ellis' pick-and-roll ability makes the Pacers' offensive attack more dynamic, so as long as Indiana can keep him happy this deal should work well. The Pacers brought back Allen, a favorite of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), using his Bird rights. Because of his RPM, Allen is projected as worth about $18 million over the next three years. With uncertainty in Indiana's frontcourt, it's conceivable that Allen could push for a starting job.
What's next: The Pacers are capped out, so to create space to replace power forward David West they'll have to move some salary. The most likely candidate is starting center Roy Hibbert, whose slow-paced game has fallen out of favor in Indiana. The Pacers could move Hibbert to a team with cap space, clearing between $14-16 million to shop for frontcourt replacements.
Wesley Matthews
Team: Dallas Mavericks
Contract: Four years, TBD
What it means: Salary details weren't yet available Thursday night for Matthews, who agreed to a four-year deal with the Mavericks , sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein. Matthews passed on a strong offer from the Sacramento Kings, who reportedly offered $64 million over four years. If healthy, Matthews is worth the money. I projected his value at $51 million over the next three years. "If healthy" is a big assumption for a player coming off a ruptured Achilles, however. The track record of NBA players suffering Achilles ruptures features only a handful who returned at 100 percent. That makes a big deal for Matthews a huge risk, especially for a team like Dallas that is unlikely to have much depth -- and has a starting small forward, Chandler Parsons, coming off a surgery (knee) of his own.
What's next: Depending where Matthews' contract starts and the salary cap lands, the Mavericks should have just enough room to offer DeAndre Jordan a max deal. If Dallas lands Jordan, the Mavericks will have few options to fill out a remarkably thin roster with just eight players under contract. If Jordan signs elsewhere, Dallas can look at lower-priced centers who would allow them to add another low-cost free agent before using the $2.8 million room exception.
Arron Afflalo
Team: New York Knicks
Contract: Two years, $16 million
What it means: The Knicks' first addition in free agency was Afflalo, theoretically a 3-and-D wing. In practice, Afflalo failed to live up to either label last season. While he competes defensively, Afflalo has never rated well defensively by plus-minus metrics -- RPM rated him 73rd at the position defensively in 2014-15. His offense has come and gone, and 2014-15 was a down year. Afflalo shot just 35.4 percent from beyond the arc and posted a below-average .533 true shooting percentage. So despite the relatively low price tag, Afflalo still doesn't look like a good buy.
What's next: ESPN's Marc Stein reported Thursday night that center Robin Lopez plans to sign in New York, presuming the Knicks don't unexpectedly land DeAndre Jordan. Before signing Lopez, New York had about $20 million to spend, so the Knicks will have room for only one smaller piece. They might look for a power forward to avoid rushing rookie Kristaps Porzingis into the starting lineup.
Ed Davis
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Contract: Three years, $20 million
What it means: Portland continued its strategy of pursuing players in their mid-20s on mid-tier contracts, getting Davis to go along with small forward Al-Farouq Aminu. Davis, a high-percentage finisher who excels in the pick-and-roll game, is projected as worth $38 million over the next three years. His contract could be one of free agency's better values.
What's next: Even if Aldridge leaves, the Blazers have a full frontcourt with Davis joining newly acquired Mason Plumlee and Noah Vonleh and holdovers Chris Kaman and Meyers Leonard. They still have enough cap space to maintain Aldridge's rights. Should he walk, Portland would have $25-plus million to add to the perimeter or take on bad salaries in exchange for future picks or players.
Aron Baynes
Team: Detroit Pistons
Contract: Three years, as high as $20 million
What it means: Baynes, who quietly re-signed with the San Antonio Spurs for $2.1 million as a restricted free agent last summer, got a massive raise from the Pistons. Though Baynes is coming off his best NBA season and the cap is rising, this looks like a stretch. I have Baynes' value projected at about $11 million over the next three years; the Pistons' offer may be for nearly double that, per a report by Stein. Worse still, Baynes plays the same position as Detroit's best player ( Andre Drummond), and it's unlikely the two traditional big men can play together, making this deal difficult to understand.
What's next: The Pistons later added three players, most notably forward Marcus Morris, in a trade with the Phoenix Suns. Detroit still has about $12 million to spend before re-signing restricted free agent Reggie Jackson, whose cap hold is a paltry $5.5 million. It's unclear where the Pistons might focus their attention with a rotation that is now relatively full.
Thomas Robinson
Team: Brooklyn Nets
Contract: Two years, minimum
Shane Larkin
Team: Nets
Contract: Two years, $3 million
What it means: Having already committed more than $90 million in 2015-16 salary, the Nets did some shopping from the discount aisle Thursday, signing former first-round picks Larkin and Robinson to low-risk deals. Larkin showed promise as a pick-and-roll point guard at Miami, but his small stature has limited his NBA career to date. Robinson, though unlikely to ever fulfill the potential that made him the No. 5 overall pick in 2012, was effective as an energy rebounder off the bench after joining the Philadelphia 76ers late last season. Given the cost, both deals are smart gambles if limited in upside.
What's next: Brooklyn now has 12 players signed to guaranteed contracts, along with three on deals that are partially or non-guaranteed, so the Nets have limited roster spots to work with. They may bring back restricted free agent Mirza Teletovic.
Walter Tavares
Team: Atlanta Hawks
Contract: Unknown
What it means: The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported Thursday that the Hawks had signed Tavares, a 2014 second-round pick, to a multi-year contract. Because of his rebounding and shot-blocking, the 7-foot-3 Tavares projects as one of the best players overseas whose rights are held by an NBA team. It's unclear how much he'll help next season, especially with newly acquired Tiago Splitter and Al Horford also in the mix for playing time at center, but the Hawks can take a more active role in Tavares' development with him stateside.
What's next: The big question is how Atlanta will sign Tavares. If the Hawks move a player under contract, they might be able to use a sliver of cap space remaining after adding Splitter and re-signing Paul Millsap to sign Tavares to a three- or four-year contract. Otherwise, Atlanta would probably have to dip into its room exception, taking away the team's best option for replacing departed wing DeMarre Carroll.