Best 2015 college football title bets
— -- For more 2015 predictions, check out Mark Schlabach's Way-Too-Early Top 25 and our experts' 2015 Playoff picks.
The 2014 college football season is in the books, with the Ohio State Buckeyes the first national champion of the College Football Playoff era. Oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas have wasted no time hanging numbers on next season. We'll take a look at the full list of prices below and sort out the best values from among the favorites and the long shots.
The favorites
Ohio State (9-2)
TCU (7-1)
Alabama (8-1)
Oklahoma, USC, Baylor (12-1)
Oregon (20-1)
Urban Meyer must replace top offensive lieutenant Tom Herman, the new head coach at Houston, but the rest of the staff should return intact, plus impact players like running back Ezekiel Elliott, defensive end Joey Bosa and linebacker Darron Lee are just rising juniors. The nation's top quarterback group, an offensive line that will be even better and an ever-deepening defense round out the recipe that makes the Buckeyes the favorite to repeat.
From this group, though, we'd rather back TCU at the higher price. The Frogs are also loaded, and while Gary Patterson must replace a handful of all-conference defenders from all three position groups such as Chucky Hunter, Chris Hackett, Sam Carter, Kevin White and Paul Dawson, this team is deep enough to again field one of the Big 12's best defenses. Last offseason's offensive overhaul was a smashing success, and most of the key parts on that side of the ball return, along with the co-coordinator pair of playcaller Doug Meacham and quarterback whisperer Sonny Cumbie. The latter didn't get Meacham's press for the team's offensive breakthrough, but Cumbie was instrumental in the transformation of Trevone Boykin from athletic wideout to All-American quarterback. Boykin will probably be the 2015 Heisman favorite when those odds are posted, and -- like Ohio State -- TCU has elite coaching and is a reasonable choice at the top of the betting order.
Staff continuity is also an advantage for Alabama. The Tide have their latest defensive quarterback at the ready, with Reggie Ragland primed to step into the defensive signal-calling role vacated by the departing Trey DePriest. The defensive line might be the nation's best, and there's plenty of talent at the skill positions to offset the losses of Amari Cooper and T.J. Yeldon. But the team's third early departure -- safety Landon Collins -- might be the biggest loss. The secondary has struggled for the past two seasons and is still probably a year away from sporting enough developed talent to rate among the top 10 nationally. The offensive line is shaky beyond center and left tackle, and a new quarterback must emerge. It's hard to see the 2015 Tide shaping up as strong as last year's edition.
Oklahoma is shaking up its coaching staff and the defense hasn't played championship ball in several seasons, but the Sooners' ceiling is always high even when the floor is lower than usual. USC is clearly on the rise, but the pantry isn't fully stocked as the team moves past the depth-destroying scholarship reductions of the past few years. And Oregon without Marcus Mariota is a no-hoper, as they say at the racetrack.
The contenders
Michigan State, Clemson (20-1)
Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, UCLA, Stanford (25-1)
Notre Dame, Florida State, Mississippi State (30-1)
Arkansas, Texas (40-1)
Arizona State (50-1)
One of the principles we always stress when it comes to championship futures is never to forget that close doesn't count. The team we're backing has to actually win the big dance, not just earn an invitation. Florida State cashed a ticket to the inaugural playoff, but the Seminoles were easily the worst of the four finalists and had little chance to bring home the trophy. And after watching the title game, just about every team anywhere near the Top 25 probably turned off the TV feeling like it could have beaten Oregon.
With that in mind, we exclude from consideration teams like Clemson, squads with the ingredients to compete for their conference titles but without a pedigree that gives us confidence when it comes to winning two playoff games. Michigan State is loaded despite the loss of defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi and might be intriguing at a higher price. Stanford, Georgia, Ole Miss, Arizona State and Florida State will be breaking in new quarterbacks. Arkansas, Michigan State, Clemson, Mississippi State, Georgia and LSU all lost key coordinators to other jobs.
If we could make only one selection from anywhere on the Westgate's initial board, it would be Auburn at 25-1. Nick Marshall moves on, but replacement Jeremy Johnson has experience and the confidence of the coaches. We expect the rising junior to be better than Marshall by the time he leaves Auburn. New coordinator Will Muschamp should oversee substantial defensive improvement, and the offense will always be potent with Gus Malzahn at the controls. Auburn draws Georgia, both Mississippi schools and the Iron Bowl at home.
Notre Dame also has potential. Like Georgia Tech, the Irish are coached by a man who has won multiple national titles in a lower division. The mass of injuries in 2014 helped build experienced depth on defense, and key players like defensive tackle Sheldon Day return. Brian Kelly's five-year tenure has been marked by an unlikely series of off-field setbacks: the tragic accident that claimed the life of student videographer Declan Sullivan, Everett Golson's lost year, the Manti Te'o fiasco, the controversy over Kelly's sideline behavior and the academic suspensions of the past year. Amid all that, Kelly already has a BCS title game appearance to his credit. We think he'll make it to the playoff at some point, and last year's edition was a junior-dominated team that saw a lot of underclassmen gain valuable experience.
The long shots
Florida, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech (60-1)
Missouri, Michigan, Nebraska, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Arizona, Texas A&M, Miami, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Louisville, South Carolina, Washington, Utah, BYU, Penn State (100-1)
Boise State, Minnesota, Iowa, North Carolina (300-1)
NC State, Kentucky, California, Oregon State (500-1)
From the pack at 60-1, we expect significant improvement from Tennessee, but Georgia Tech might be the most intriguing choice. The Jackets are thin at running back and are seeking that go-to wideout that Paul Johnson's teams always have when they are really potent, but the defense, offensive line and quarterback might all be the best units of Johnson's tenure. Nonconference tilts with Notre Dame and Georgia will build schedule credibility, a necessity for an ACC Coastal hopeful.
If you're looking for a real long shot, the group at 100-1 has three teams we could take semiseriously. Year 2 of elite coaches' BCS-era regimes have been kind, with Urban Meyer (at Florida) and Bob Stoops claiming national titles and Meyer (at Ohio State) and Nick Saban posting undefeated regular seasons. Chris Petersen is in that class, and while losses along both sides of the line of scrimmage look too heavy for the Huskies to contend nationally, we'd rather back Petersen in 2015 at 100-1 than the likes of Miami, West Virginia and Penn State at 10 times that price.
Oklahoma State was a young team last year, has found a capable quarterback who seems to give the whole squad some swagger and is a well-coached outfit with strong resources. The Cowboys figure to return to Big 12 contention.
BYU is the only non-Power 5 program that can make the playoff under the current structure. That's because the Cougars control their schedule, while the Group of 5 champions face slates that are automatically perceived as too weak to make the cut. Witness the committee's inability to keep an unbeaten Florida State squad that oddsmakers tell us would be a pick 'em against 6-6 Arkansas out of the top four despite a so-so ACC résumé, while then-unbeaten Marshall couldn't even crack the top 25. Nebraska, UCLA, Michigan and Missouri grace the 2015 slate of a Cougars squad that returns quarterback Taysom Hill to what should continue to be a potent offense, while defensive guru Bronco Mendenhall is once again personally taking the reins on that side of the ball.
Here are our top 10 values from the Westgate openers:
1. Auburn 25-1
2. TCU 7-1
3. Ohio State 9-2
4. Notre Dame 30-1
5. Georgia Tech 60-1
6. Michigan State 20-1
7. Oklahoma 12-1
8. Oklahoma State 100-1
9. Washington 100-1
10. Alabama 8-1