Best bets for Ravens-Chargers
Where does the betting value lie in Sunday's matchup? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson give their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Friday afternoon.
Best bets
IND-HOU | SEA-DAL | LAC-BAL | PHI-CHI
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Los Angeles
Johnson: My projections for this game are Ravens -1.4 with a total of 44. Melvin Gordon is good to go on Sunday despite suffering an ankle injury late in the Chargers' Week 17 game in Denver. The irony of it all is that the Chiefs were leading the Raiders 35-3, deeming the Chargers' game virtually meaningless. Anthony Lynn went with his starters the entire way nonetheless. He escaped tons of criticism now that it appears Gordon is OK. Gordon likely isn't 100 percent, but backup running back Austin Ekeler has done a fantastic job, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and 10.4 yards per reception out of the backfield this season. With those backs together, Los Angeles shouldn't skip a beat offensively.
Lamar Jackson has been amazing, and Baltimore's defense is good enough to keep the Ravens in games -- but if it comes down to late drives and getting points on the board, I'm not sure what to expect out of the rookie quarterback. Though my numbers point to a slight edge on the over (I'd be betting over at 41 or better), it's still expected to be a lower-scoring game, so I opted to get the Chargers at +8.5 through key numbers in a two-team, six-point teaser with the Seahawks.
Pick: Chargers +8.5 in a teaser with Seahawks +8
Sharp: These teams met just two weeks ago, and they are intimately familiar with each other as a result. I totally understand the argument that the increased familiarity benefits the Chargers more, because Baltimore's current offense is so atypical. In that first meeting, however, the run-based Ravens already struggled rushing the ball. They posted just a 34 percent success rate on the ground and Jackson gained only 3.0 yards per carry with a 31 percent success rate. It will be difficult for the Chargers' run defense, even with more familiarity, to hold the Ravens' run offense to something worse than a 34 percent success rate.
The Chargers' pass offense has done quite well against bad pass defenses, going 5-0 against those that rank in the bottom 10. But against good pass defenses, the Chargers have only one signature win. That win came against the Browns in Week 6, in Baker Mayfield's third start (and still with Hue Jackson and Todd Haley). Apart from that, the Chargers lost to the Rams by double digits, to the Broncos (when Denver's pass defense was still healthy) and to the Ravens two weeks ago. Due to the pressure the Ravens were able to apply to Rivers (four sacks), he threw only eight completions to WRs all game, with most of his completions (10) going to RBs out of the backfield.
Lean: Ravens ML -150