Best value bets for Super Bowl 50
— -- LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots rallied and then held off the Seattle Seahawks 28-24 in a thrilling Super Bowl XLIX that could have gone either way. With the coin-flip finish, the NFL Vegas Rankings still have the Seahawks as the top-rated team heading into the off-season and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook agrees with Seattle a slight favorite to win Super Bowl 50.
The NFL Vegas Rankings, which use the combined power ratings of ESPN Insider's NFL handicappers, Erin Rynning of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, have the Seahawks half a point ahead of the Patriots, with the Green Bay Packers another half-point back.
We've updated the power ratings for all 32 teams with the knowledge that a lot will happen in the coming weeks and months -- including teams releasing players, signing free agents, drafting rookies, etc. But it serves as a basis for evaluating how teams evolve during the offseason -- and for those looking for values to make bets in the near future.
Our panels' ratings pretty much coincide with the future-book odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for next year's Super Bowl. The SuperBook lists Seattle as the 5-1 favorite, followed by New England at 6-1, Green Bay at 7-1, Denver at 8-1, Indianapolis at 12-1 and Dallas at 14-1. Our panel ranks Dallas ahead of Indy.
The main purpose of this annual column is to find the best value bets in the future book for those looking to play those at this time. Two years ago, I tabbed Seattle as the best bet at 12-1, and the Seahawks came through. The exercise didn't work as well last year, when I bet the Saints at 14-1 and they failed to make the playoffs.
A glance at the chart with the NFL Vegas Rankings and the Super Bowl future odds shows there might be some value (relatively speaking) on the Buffalo Bills, as they're 50-1. We have them rated more with teams in the 30-1 neighborhood. However, each of us has our individual thoughts on which teams could offer value, especially if we can project that they make the right moves during the upcoming months.
Tuley's take: Pittsburgh Steelers (20-1)
"I'm going with the Steelers as my top value play, at 20-1. With Le'Veon Bell having his breakout season and Ben Roethlisberger and his receiving corps, they have the offensive firepower to play with anyone. I know Hall of Fame defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau left, but I have no doubt Mike Tomlin and the organization will make defense a priority, and improve the unit. The AFC North will again be tough (and I wouldn't blame anyone for making a case for the Bengals or Ravens), but the Steelers look to me to have the most upside. I also like to give a pick from the other conference, and the value play I see is the Arizona Cardinals, at 30-1. Obviously, we all saw their roller coaster of a season, but if Carson Palmer returns to health -- or they get a new quarterback -- they should be right there in the mix again."
Erin Rynning's take: Houston Texans (30-1)
"There was a lot to like from the Texans this past season, as they closed the campaign on a 5-2 run under new head coach Bill O'Brien. Houston's roster is full of impact players that can lead them to the Super Bowl next season, led by J.J. Watt. Keep in mind that this organization was the AFC favorite in early 2013, coming off a 12-4 record in 2012. The defense was arguably a top-five unit this past season, and that was without top draft choice Jadeveon Clowney. There's no question that finding a quarterback is the key issue for the Texans moving forward. They'll be looking to make a move in the offseason, although the market is thin. However, O'Brien has shown an ability to coach up his quarterback, and an above-average game manager is all that's needed, given the Texans' supporting cast. Keep a close eye on the Texans this offseason, as there is potential for them to outperform their 30-1 odds."
Minnesota Vikings (50-1)
"Mike Zimmer is a solid head coach, and it showed in the Vikings' immense improvement on defense this season. In 2013, the unit ranked 31st in points allowed, but it climbed to 11th in 2014. The offensive side of the ball is where the strides will be made in 2015, with second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater expected to take a step forward. He showed real signs of becoming an above-average quarterback in in the NFL, completing 64 percent of his passes this past season. Of course, the major impact offensively would be the potential return of running back Adrian Peterson. The Vikings offer huge odds, and while a supreme long shot, stranger things have happened in the NFL."
Sal Selvaggio's take: Miami Dolphins (30-1)
"It's hard to recommend a good value bet without knowing how the offseason will play out. I have been higher than most on Miami much of the year, so judging where they have the Dolphins listed in this set of odds, I would say they offer a bit of value. In the NFC, San Francisco didn't have much luck with injuries, Colin Kaepernick had a terrible year and the Jim Harbaugh turmoil had to be a negative, so I would expect a bounce back from them in 2015 giving them a little value as well, at 25-1."