Best Week 4 CFB ATS picks

— -- Every Wednesday during the college football season, we'll give "Stanford Steve" Coughlin of ESPN Radio and the "SVP & Russillo" show and Chris Fallica of ESPN Stats & Information and "College GameDay" their shot at picking the weekend's top college football games.

Here are their against-the-spread picks ( in bold) for Week 4, along with a confidence level of 1-10 for each:

Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Marquee games

Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles (-20)

*Note: Both picks reflect the fact that Jameis Winston is suspended for the first half of Saturday's game.

Chris Fallica: Neither team has played an FBS team since Aug. 30, so this one is more of a feel pick. I liken this game to a past Oregon-Stanford situation. In 2010, Stanford jumped on Oregon, only to have the Ducks come back at Autzen and blow the Cardinal out. The next season (2011) was supposed to be the "the year" for Stanford, as Andrew Luck was in his final season and the Cardinal had the Ducks at home; Oregon went to Stanford as a slight underdog and dominated the game. In 2012, it was a given that the Ducks would blow out the Cardinal as a 20.5-point favorite and continue their march to the BCS Championship Game. But a funny thing happened that night at Autzen; Oregon had an off night and the Cardinal pulled the huge upset. How does that apply here?

In 2012, Clemson jumped to a big lead in Tallahassee only to see the Noles pull away. Last year was supposed be Clemson's year, as it had the game in Death Valley. We know how that went for the Tigers. Can they pull the upset this year at Doak Campbell? I'm not sure if they can, but I believe they keep it close.

ATS pick: Florida State 34, Clemson 31 (confidence level: 7)

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: The last three times these teams have met, the FSU quarterback has set a career high for total yards in a game ( Clint Trickett in '11, EJ Manuel in '12 and Winston in '13). Combine that with the fact that I'm not fond of Brent Venables as a defensive coordinator, and I see a lot of points coming from the FSU offense. I believe the bye week helps both teams before this game, with a slight advantage going to the Tigers, because I think they re-assessed their offense, so expect to see a lot of DeSaun Watson at quarterback for Clemson.

As Danny Kanell has pointed out several times, you need a mobile quarterback to be successful against FSU's defense, which has not been that impressive in its two games. Expect a lot of points in this one, with Clemson scoring late to cover the big number. I'll take the underdog.

ATS pick: Florida State 41, Clemson 24 (confidence: 3)

Oklahoma Sooners (-7) at West Virginia Mountaineers

Fallica: Trickett has been one of the most pleasant surprises this season, completing 75.4 percent of his passes (and it could be higher, given the drops versus Alabama). Five different players have caught at least eight passes from Trickett, so he's been quite effective spreading the ball around. There are certain teams that just pose problems for others, and Dana Holgorsen's Mountaineers appear to be that team for Oklahoma.

Last year,  Trevor Knight was 10-of-20 with a QBR of 28 against WVU as the Sooners struggled in the red zone and managed one TD in a 16-7 comeback win as a 21-point favorite. Last time in Morgantown, it took a 554-yard, six TD-performance from Landry Jones as the Sooners scored the winning TD with 24 seconds left as an 11.5-point favorite. Oklahoma is a 7-point favorite here and will be without its leading rusher,  Keith Ford, so an already thin RB group will be even thinner. If the Mountaineers can contain Sterling Shepard, OU will be in big trouble.

ATS pick: West Virginia 30, Oklahoma 24 (confidence: 7)

Coughlin: These two teams have combined to play some interesting games the last two seasons, with the last game in Morgantown ('12), being an all-out shootout between Jones and Geno Smith. We know the Mountaineers have been tested as they opened the season vs. Bama and almost blew a lead to a Maryland team that you will see me write more about below. Not sure a line has moved more than this one since it was put out Sunday, which always gets me thinking, "Who knows something about this game?" Holgerson's offense has been very good so far, averaging 39 points a game, and the Sooners' offense comes in averaging almost 45 points. So what gives? I say both defenses, with the winner of this game scoring 40-plus points in what should be a decent night weatherwise in Morgantown. I like over the total (61) in this one.

ATS pick: Oklahoma 42, West Virginia 30. Over the total is the pick. (confidence: 8)

Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide (minus-14.5)

Fallica: Alabama has yet to cover any of the three massive numbers Vegas has posted this season, but this is the week it will. Since 2011, Florida has played 24 games against major conference teams not named Kentucky or Tennessee. In those 24 games, Florida is 9-15, has committed 47 turnovers and averaged 18 PPG. The Gators have been held under 300 yards of offense 15 times, 10 times under 250 yards and five times under 200 yards. The last time these two met, in 2011, Alabama dominated 38-10, outgaining the Gators by 144 yards. Alabama hasn't committed a turnover against Florida in any of their past three meetings, either. If the Tide continues to take care of the ball, it will again be a one-sided affair.

ATS pick: Alabama 33, Florida 10 (confidence: 8)

Coughlin: This is the game I'm most excited to watch this weekend. I love the way both these teams play defense, and I give the slight edge to Florida in the athleticism category. I'm expecting the Tide to go with Blake Sims at quarterback in this game, as they just have been more consistent with him under center, and he is simply better than Jake Coker in avoiding the pass rush. A bunch of people were making a big deal about the Gators needing OT to beat UK last week, but I watched that game and came away very impressed by the defense of Kentucky, so I think Jeff Driskel is in a good position in this game.

The biggest factor in this game will be the play calling by both offensive coordinators. I think Nick Saban will tighten the reins on Lane Kiffin, but expect some shots and tricks from the Gators' offense to try to weather the storm early. Defense reigns supreme in this one, and I'm going below the total of 51.5 here.

ATS pick: Alabama 24, Florida 13. Under the total is the pick (confidence: 7)

Value plays

Utah Utes at Michigan Wolverines (minus-4)

Fallica: The Utes are one of the more dangerous underdogs in the country, having pulled road upsets in recent years over BYU, Arizona and Pitt, as well as beating eventual Pac-12 champion Stanford in Salt Lake City last season. In Rich Rodriguez's first game at Michigan, Kyle Whittingham engineered an upset win over the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. If he does the same here, look out. Michigan continues to struggle on the offensive line and with turnovers -- the Wolverines had three more against Miami (Ohio) last week. That's bad news considering the Utes had seven sacks last week and will likely keep Devin Gardner under pressure most of the game, especially if WR Devin Funchess is again out of the lineup. Chalk it up as another Big Ten loss to a Power 5 nonconference opponent.

ATS pick: Utah 27, Michigan 21 (confidence: 6)

Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers (minus-10)

Coughlin: The last time these two teams met when they were both undefeated was back in 1997. In order for an upset to happen, you need a quarterback to make plays, and the advantage at that position in this game is on Mississippi State's side -- by a landslide. Dak Prescott is the best quarterback I have ever seen in the program's history, plus he is second in the country in points accounted for with 72 (three touchdowns passing and nine running). There isn't a program I respect more in the SEC than LSU, but I'm going on a hunch here -- that and I'm still not over a bad beat LSU gave me a couple years ago. Look for the Bulldogs to pull the upset.

ATS pick: Mississippi State 24, LSU 20 (confidence: 6)

Maryland Terrapins at Syracuse Orange (pick 'em)

Coughlin: There aren't too many groups of skill players I like more than the Terps'. Maryland showed a lot of fight overcoming a deficit of over 20 points to West Virginia, before ultimately losing 40-37. We know the Carrier Dome has been a tough place to play, but the firepower Randy Edsall's team has on offense is the reason I am leaning toward the Terps. The Orange haven't been impressive early this season and haven't even had a sniff of the competition that Maryland has. With the combination of Maryland being nationally ranked in the top 10 in punt returns and kick returns, and also averaging 37 points a game on offense (highest since 2001, when they averaged 35 PPG), expect big plays to be too much for the home team in the dome.

ATS pick: Maryland 30, Syracuse 20 (confidence: 5)

Season records

Fallica: 5-9
Coughlin: 10-4-1