Best Week 6 CFB ATS picks
— -- Every Wednesday during the college football season, we will give "Stanford Steve" Coughlin of ESPN Radio and the SVP & Russillo show and Chris Fallica of ESPN Stats & Information and "College GameDay" their shot at picking the weekend's top college football games.
Here are their against-the-spread picks ( in bold) for Week 6, along with a confidence level of 1-10 for each:
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
Stanford Cardinal (-2) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Coughlin: These are two of the three teams in college football that haven't given up more than 17 points in a game this year. It was reported that Stanford coach David Shaw had the loss at Notre Dame from two years ago playing on the flight back last week from the Cardinal's win at Washington, so you can expect a motivated team from Palo Alto. However, I don't think there is a more improved college football player in the country than Irish QB Everett Golson, who I feel will be invited to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony at season's end. With his pocket presence and elusiveness, along with his improved accuracy, he will provide a threat to the Cardinal defense that it just hasn't seen this season. Throw in a young offensive line and inconsistent QB for the Cardinal and I see Notre Dame winning this game outright.
ATS pick: Notre Dame 24, Stanford 13 (confidence: 9)
Fallica: I'm 2-0 against the number when picking Stanford games, so I'll try to keep that streak going here. (Stanford Steve better take notes!) Stanford has been one of the worst red zone offenses in the country (three TDs in 10 red zone trips vs. Power 5 teams). On the other hand, the defense has been dominant, allowing only two TDs this season and an opponent QBR of 16 (second in FBS). Notre Dame can't afford to turn the ball over five times like it did last week, but Golson looked comfortable with the short passing game; he'll have to be as the Irish continue to have zero running game (3.2 YPC vs. Power 5 teams). There shouldn't be many points in this one, and the Irish are 13-3 in their last 16 games decided by seven points or fewer. I like Notre Dame here.
ATS pick: Notre Dame 17, Stanford 16 (confidence: 6)
Alabama Crimson Tide (-6) at Ole Miss Rebels
Coughlin: All I can think about when this matchup comes to mind is a game from 2008, when Alabama traveled to Athens to play Georgia. "College GameDay" was in Athens for the first time in several years, and Georgia was planning a "black out" that included the fans and team as it wore black jerseys. All that happened was the Crimson Tide came out and stomped to a 31-0 lead at halftime. There are not too many quarterbacks in the country I trust less than the Rebs' Bo Wallace. Toss in what might be the best offense Nick Saban has had in his tenure in Tuscaloosa and I think this is an easy win for the Tide on the road.
ATS pick: Alabama 31, Ole Miss 17 (confidence: 8)
Fallica: This has all the makings of an ultimate letdown for the Rebels with "GameDay" in town for the first time, Alabama the opponent and fans' excitement at an all-time high. But once one gets past the intangibles, it's not hard to make a case for the Rebels. Alabama is playing its first true road game of the year, which means Blake Sims is making his first road start. This is an Ole Miss defense that held A.J. McCarron to 180 yards on 25 completions without a TD pass last year ( Amari Cooper had three catches for 28 yards). Alabama gained 118 of its 254 rush yards on two plays last year, and the other 38 carries gained 136 (3.6 YPC). The defense did its job. The problem was Ole Miss ran 13 plays inside the Tide 30-yard line and had nothing to show for it. Any improvement this year puts the Rebels squarely in this one. Since 2010, Alabama has been an SEC favorite of 10 points or fewer 11 times in regular-season play. The Tide are 2-9 ATS and 7-4 straight up. Expect a game down to the wire.
ATS pick: Alabama 20, Ole Miss 17 (confidence: 6)
Auburn Tigers (-8) vs. LSU Tigers
Coughlin: Earlier in the week, Les Miles announced that he is starting true freshman Brandon Harris at quarterback. When you look back at last year, Auburn was a different team after it played in Baton Rouge, as it suffered its first and only regular-season loss. The Bayou Bengals come in, and I am stuck with the thought of that bad defensive performance the last time they played a division game in the SEC West against Mississippi State. The thought of Gus Malzahn also comes into mind. He has been hearing "LSU defensive coordinator John Chavous knows how to stop Gus Malzahn" for a long time. Expect a juiced-up crowd on The Plains and an inspired effort from War Eagle.
ATS pick: Auburn 38, LSU 21 (confidence: 7)
Michigan State Spartans (-7.5) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Coughlin: No one comes into this weekend, which features six ranked vs. ranked matchups, with more to gain than the Cornhuskers. A win would mean they have a chance at 13-0 and, most importantly, remain the lone unbeaten team in the Big Ten. But I just don't see it happening in East Lansing. No team has impressed me more this season than Sparty. I know they have a loss at Oregon (I stood on the sideline of that game in Eugene), but I think they are better in every facet of the game than they were last year, which not many teams can say. After that loss, they have steamrolled soft competition, but I just get the sense that this team knows it has to be impressive and dominate teams to remain in the playoff discussion. Adding to that, I expect Sparty defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi to have a special scheme to try to slow down the Cornhuskers' best player -- and possibly the best running back in the country -- Ameer Abdullah. I expect the Sparty defense to have to hold off a backdoor cover from the Big Red.
ATS pick: Michigan State 30, Nebraska 17 (confidence: 4)
Tennessee Volunteers (-2.5) vs. Florida Gators
Coughlin: This is really hard for me to do, but I am going against Will Muschamp, my favorite head coach in college football, in this one. With this game meaning so much for each team, it feels like home-field advantage will be vital. Florida is on a series-leading nine-game win streak coming into this game, so I believe Butch Jones will have his Vols champing at the bit to get this win and make life for the Gators miserable. Florida does come in with a nation-leading plus-8 turnover margin, but I feel more comfortable going with UT. The Vols have faced some really good teams on the road in Oklahoma and Georgia, and Tennessee will feast off having such a big game at home. Plus, UT QB Justin Worley is way more trustworthy than the Gators' Jeff Driskel.
ATS pick: Tennessee 28, Florida 21 (confidence: 3)
North Carolina Tar Heels (+1.5) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Fallica: Two teams headed in the completely wrong direction meet in this one. Since a landmark win for the Hokies in Columbus, Tech has dropped home games to East Carolina and Georgia Tech and has lost RB Shai McKenzie to injury. On the other sideline, it's hard to imagine any defense being worse than the one in Chapel Hill, as the Tar Heels have allowed 120 points and 1,317 yards in the last two weeks. Tech is a slight road favorite, so keep in mind the Hokies are 0-7 ATS the last two years as a road favorite. FPI has this one as a toss-up (VT 50.7 percent chance to win). I'll side with the home team.
ATS pick: North Carolina 30, Virginia Tech 28 (confidence: 8)
TCU Horned Frogs (+5.5) vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Fallica: The teams have played two extremely close games the past two years. Last year, despite dominating the first half, OU needed a 76-yard TD run to extend its 13-10 lead (winning 20-17). The last time the teams played in Fort Worth, TCU had a touchdown taken off the board and lost by seven. OU threw for just 152 yards and was sacked three times last year against TCU, and in 2012 Landry Jones barely completed 50 percent of his passes (22-of-40). An OU win should mean the Sooners will be 8-0 hosting Baylor on Nov. 8. If TCU pulls the upset, it would mean a huge game next week in Waco. TCU is 9-8 in its last 17 games vs. ranked teams, with five of the eight losses by a TD or less and none by more than 14. It would be surprising to not see Gary Patterson's team in this until the end.
ATS pick: Oklahoma 27, TCU 24 (confidence: 9)
Wisconsin Badgers (-8) at Northwestern Wildcats
Fallica: Even after last week's win at Penn State, the Wildcats are likely going to have to pull two upsets (according to FPI) if they are to reach a bowl game this season. Right now, the only two games FPI projects them to win are the final two games against Purdue and Illinois, but the Cats also have a home game against Michigan that appears winnable. Wisconsin has lost its last two games in Evanston as a TD-or-more favorite. I can see that happening again, as the Badgers have zero threat of a passing game; in three games this season against FBS teams, Wisconsin passers are 28-of-60 for 322 yards, two TDs and three INTs. Northwestern has done a decent enough job against the run this season to make Wisconsin have to make some throws to win. I think the Wildcats get it done and easily cover.
ATS pick: Northwestern 31, Wisconsin 23 (confidence: 8)
Clemson Tigers (-14.5) vs. NC State Wolfpack
Fallica: I'm expecting a post-FSU hangover for the Wolfpack, while the Clemson offense should have a field day with Deshaun Watson running the show. NC State has lost six straight and nine of its last 10 ACC road games, with the last five coming by 17, 18, 32, 15 and 14 points. Clemson should continue to get better as the year goes on, and I can easily see the Tigers at 9-2 entering the final game of the year against South Carolina.
ATS pick: Clemson 44, NC State 17 (confidence: 8)
Season records
Fallica: 10-11
Coughlin: 19-5-1
Season records
Fallica: 10-11
Coughlin: 19-5-1