Best Week 7 CFB ATS picks

— -- Every Wednesday during the college football season, we will give "Stanford Steve" Coughlin of ESPN Radio and the SVP & Russillo show and Chris Fallica of ESPN Stats & Information and "College GameDay" their shot at picking the weekend's top college football games.

Here are their against-the-spread picks ( in bold) for Week 7, along with a confidence level of 1-10 for each:

Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Baylor Bears (-8.5) vs. TCU Horned Frogs

Over/under: 68 (via Pinnacle)

Fallica: Since joining the Big 12, TCU has more than held its own against the Bears. Last year in a three-point loss, TCU outgained the Bears and held them to 370 yards (Baylor's season low by 76 yards and lowest total in past four years). Bryce Petty was just 7-of-22 passing last week in Austin as the Bears entered the fourth quarter leading only 14-0. It was just the second time in the past four years Baylor was held under 5.0 yards per play (4.7) -- the other was last year against TCU (4.1). It looks as though Trevone Boykin's turnover problems are behind him and if that's the case, look for the Horned Frogs to take control of the Big 12 with a road win.

ATS pick: TCU 27, Baylor 24 (confidence: 4)

Coughlin: This might be the most interesting game of the weekend. If TCU wins this game, the talk will be about them all next week, as they will have beaten both of the public's favorites to win the Big 12. Most important, the nation would expect the Horned Frogs to finish the year unbeaten and make the playoff. It's pretty well known that both of these head coaches -- Art Briles of Baylor and Gary Patterson of TCU -- don't like each other. Expect a very high level of emotion from each side in this game. I'm going to go off the radar here and say take the under in the total here, as I see this being a close game.

ATS pick: Baylor 34, TCU 31. Take the under. (confidence: 3)

Auburn Tigers (-3) at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Fallica: Gus Malzahn's first SEC game last year was against the Bulldogs, and the Tigers were held to 120 rushing yards in that game, which was their lowest total by 93 yards. At Kansas State a couple of weeks ago, the run game again seemed to be out of sync, as the Tigers gained 128 yards on 2.8 YPC. The Mississippi State defense answered a lot of questions last week against Texas A&M. If the Bulldogs get a win here, they get a little bit of a break in the schedule (as much as an SEC team will get) and could potentially be 9-0 visiting Tuscaloosa on Nov. 15.

ATS pick: Mississippi State 30, Auburn 24 (confidence: 6)

Coughlin: All eyes will be on Starkville this Saturday for this matchup -- not only because both teams pulled off huge wins at home, but because the winner of this game could have its quarterback vault to the top of every Heisman Trophy candidate discussion ( Dak Prescott from State and Nick Marshall from Auburn). I still am not a fan of the consistency in passing accuracy from either of these QBs. I expect the clock to be running a lot in this game, with both teams having to rely on the run game. Both have shown the ability to be successful in that area, as each team has shown a great variety in how it hands the ball off or fakes the handoff and let its guys under center do the running. I'll take State and the "Dak Attack."

ATS pick: Mississippi State 33, Auburn 30 (confidence: 4)

Texas A&M Aggies (-1.5) vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Fallica: The Ole Miss defense is big-time. Rebels have allowed just three TDs in 64 opponent drives, forcing 12 turnovers with 25 drives ending without a first down. They have a advantage over an Aggies D that gave up 484 yards versus a team on a 13-game SEC losing streak (Arkansas), then backed it up allowing 559 yards and 48 points versus Mississippi State. A&M also has had trouble catching the ball (13 drops in last two weeks). Expect those trends to continue, and the Rebels to remain unbeaten.

ATS pick: Ole Miss 33, Texas A&M 31 (confidence: 6)

Coughlin: A lot of people will only want to compare how each team is coming into this game, as Ole Miss comes in sky high off its home upset win over Alabama last week, and A&M comes limping in after suffering a blowout loss in Starkville last week. Aggies QB Kenny Hill is totally off the Heisman radar after a great game to start the season (which everyone seems to have forgotten about), but I expect him to come into this game and play a lot better than he has the past couple of weeks.

Knowing how good Ole Miss is on defense, and especially its D-line, I assume the A&M passing attack will come out with a lot of quick screens and three-step drops to try to get their young signal-caller a rhythm early on in front of what should be a juiced-up home crowd for a night game at Kyle Field. Plus, I don't think the Rebs can answer the bell, after such an emotional and physical win last week. I'll take the home team here.

ATS pick: Texas A&M 33, Ole Miss 30 (confidence: 2)

Florida State Seminoles (-24) at Syracuse Orange

Fallica: This is simply "survive and advance," as Dick Vitale would say for Florida State. The Noles are better than the Orange, but given they have Notre Dame next week, their toughest road game of the year at Louisville after that and a boatload of injuries, I can see the Noles getting up comfortably on a Syracuse team that plays hard for Scott Shafer, then giving the backups a lot of playing time. That should allow Syracuse to cover.

ATS pick: Florida State 37, Syracuse 20 (confidence: 7)

Oregon Ducks (-2.5) at UCLA Bruins

Fallica: Oregon is only 3-3 in its past six Pac-12 games. And it could be worse than that, if not for a late comeback against Oregon State last year and an escape versus Washington State this year. The Ducks were 34-3 in Pac-12 games from 2009-12. Both offensive lines have struggled, as the Ducks allowed 12 sacks the past two weeks and the Bruins allowed 10 last week against Utah. Last year in Eugene the young Bruins finally broke in the fourth quarter, as Oregon pulled away. That won't happen Saturday. It will be the Bruins who keep their playoff hopes alive, despite the heroics from Marcus Mariota.

ATS pick: UCLA 38, Oregon 28 (confidence: 8)

LSU Tigers (-1) at Florida Gators

O/U:  46.5 (via Pinnacle)

Coughlin: At the beginning of the week, I thought we would have two true freshman quarterbacks starting in this game, but with the latest news out of Gainesville, I expect Jeff Driskel to be back under center for the Gators. I don't think there will be a lot of big plays on the offensive side for either of these underachieving teams. The assumption here is that this will be a field goal fest, a great defensive battle. I don't know how great Driskel's mindset will be, but I think Florida's experience will help them pull out the win.

ATS pick: Florida 12, LSU 9. Pick is on the under (confidence: 5)

Stanford Cardinal (-18) vs.  Washington State Cougars

Coughlin: The Cardinal offense has been difficult to watch the past couple of weeks at Washington and at Notre Dame, and now word is that QB Kevin Hogan was injured in the second half in South Bend this week. However, Stanford head coach David Shaw expects him to start Friday night on The Farm. The students are finally in school and the Cardinal are wearing their black uniforms (in which they are 5-0), so it should be as good a home crowd as the Stanford fan base can bring.

I look at the Washington State offense, with Connor Halliday slinging it all over the place and scoring points at will, and then I look at the Stanford offense, which has just found issues trying to score time after time the past couple of weeks. The Cardinal defense comes in ranked No. 1 in the country in scoring defense, but the concern comes on the other side of the ball. The Cougs sacked Mariota seven times a couple of weeks back, so the thought is they can do the same vs. an immobile Hogan and a below average offensive line. I'll use this as a spot to try to fire up the alma mater, but let's say the Cardinal get help from the defense and special teams to score points. Washington State will be in this one, though.

ATS pick: Stanford 31, Washington State 23 (confidence: 6)

Season records
Fallica: 15-12 (5-1 last week)
Coughlin: 22-8-1 (2-3 last week)