How to bet NFL Week 10
— -- It's Week 10 of the NFL season. Chalk's Vegas experts have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's action, included together in one handy file.
Dave Tuley
Last week: 1-4 against the spread with best bets (marked with an *); 3-1 with over/under best bets; 4-2-1 ATS on picks on all other games; 0-1 on O/U leans.
Season to date: 27-24-2 (52.9 percent) on ATS best bets; 21-13 (61.8 percent) with O/U best bets, including Cleveland-Baltimore under 45 on Thursday night; 36-40-1 on ATS leans, including Cleveland 10 on Thursday night; 6-6 on over/under leans.
Mike Clay
Last week: 6-5-1 on ATS best bets; 8-4 with O/U best bets.
Season: 46-32-3 (59 percent) on ATS best bets; 42-32 (56.8 percent) on O/U best bets.
Erin Rynning
Last week: 1-0 on ATS best bets; 1-1 on O/U best bets, 0-1 on O/U leans.
Season: 9-9 (50 percent) on ATS best bets; 14-12 (53.8 percent) on O/U best bets; 5-2 ATS on leans, 2-1 on O/U leans, including Cleveland-Baltimore under on Thursday night.
Rufus Peabody
Last week: 0-1 on ATS best bets; 0-2 on O/U best bets.
Season: 10-14 (41.7 percent) on ATS best bets; 5-12 (29.4 percent) on O/U best bets; 5-4-2 on ATS leans, 1-2 on O/U leans.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Opened Green Bay -1; now Green Bay -2.5 (-120)
Total: Opened 49; now 49.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 84 percent Green Bay
Public perception: The Packers are lucky that the Vikings have gone on a losing streak, or they'd be close to being out of the playoff picture. However, the public still prefers them by a wide margin over the Titans (4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS).
Wiseguys' view: The sharps were in agreement with the squares that this line opened too short and have bet Green Bay from -1 to -2.5, and it looks headed to 3.
Dave Tuley's take: The Titans are a frustrating team to back. We see DeMarco Murray back in top form and Marcus Mariota continuing to improve, but they keep coming up short when we expect them to turn potential into victories. The Packers are in a perfect spot to fade, as they're continuing to be favored by more points than they deserve, but I can't pull the trigger getting less than a field goal at home. (Check the comments section if this goes to 3.5.)
The pick: Lean to Green Bay -2.5 (-120)
Rufus Peabody: Tennessee is the 21st-ranked team in the Massey-Peabody ratings, yet that makes it the best team in the AFC South. The Titans host the sixth-ranked Green Bay Packers, who also have one of the NFL's best rushing defenses. In fact, they've allowed only 3.35 yards per rush to opposing running backs, lowest in the NFL. That could be problematic for a Titans offense which relies heavily on the run -- 43.9 percent of their plays have been designed runs, second-most in the NFL. They've run the ball effectively, too, with their running backs garnering 4.55 yards per carry. I lean Tennessee at a flat 3.
Pick: Lean Tennessee 3
Massey-Peabody Line: Green Bay -1.2, Total: 48.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Green Bay 23
The pick: Tennessee and the under -- TEN 2.5, 49.5
Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
Spread: Opened Washington -2.5; now Washington -2.5
Total: Opened 42.5; now 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Washington
Public perception: The public is on the Redskins -2.5 (as they were earlier in the week), but when the line went to a full field goal, they were on the Vikings 3 just as much. Both teams are 5-3 ATS for their backers, though the Vikings started 5-0 and have dropped three straight, while the Redskins started 0-2 and have gone 5-1 ATS since.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are also split on this game, with Washington backers laying -2.5 and Minnesota backers taking 3.
Dave Tuley's take: With the Vikings on their skid, it's hard to step back up to the window, but there are several trends that are in their favor. According to research by Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information, Minnesota is 8-1 ATS with five outright upsets in its past nine games as an underdog under coach Mike Zimmer; meanwhile, Kirk Cousins is 1-6 ATS with four outright losses in the role of favorite since taking over as Washington's starting QB last year. So, we have a team that can't be trusted laying points against a team that excels in the underdog role. Besides, the NFL Vegas Rankings that we're part of here at ESPN Chalk has the Vikings as 5.5 points better than the Redskins on a neutral field, so we're not so sure that the right team is favored.
The pick: Vikings 2.5*
Rufus Peabody: If the season ended today, both the Redskins and Vikings would make the playoffs. While the Vikings have a 56 percent chance of making the postseason, the Redskins have only?a 22 percent chance and face the toughest schedule of any team the rest of the way. My model is banking on some positive regression to the mean from the Minnesota offense, at least in part due to Sam Bradford showing he has been at least passable throughout his career. In this matchup of a good Washington offense against an elite Minnesota defense and a bad Minnesota offense against a bad Washington defense, I favor the offenses a bit.
Pick: Over 42
Massey-Peabody Line: Washington -2.3, Total: 44.9
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 21, Minnesota 17
The pick: Washington and the under -- WAS -3, 41.5
Matchup: Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Opened Tampa Bay -2; now Chicago -2.5
Total: Opened 45; now 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent Chicago
Public perception: This line has been all over the place, as there was some question if Jameis Winston (and Mike Evans) would be cleared to play, but even with both in the starting lineup, we've seen the public backing the Bears.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps have been on the Bears, but some will wait for the line to peak before backing the Buccaneers. Or, more accurately, fading the Bears, who ESPN Stats & Info's Rob Nelson points out is the only NFL team to fail to win as a favorite (0-4 SU and ATS) since the beginning of last season.
Dave Tuley's take: I don't even need the above stat to believe the wrong team is favored here. In the NFL Vegas Rankings that we do here at Chalk, the Bucs are one point better than the Bears on a neutral field, so this line should be closer to Tampa Bay -3 at home. I could see the Bears favored if the Buccaneers were without Winston and Evans, but now the value is clearly on the Bucs.
The pick: Tampa Bay 1*
Rufus Peabody: As bad as Tampa Bay has played for most of the year, the Bucs are still alive in the playoff picture, and thanks to the timing of their wins, they have a path to the playoffs if they can go 6-2 the rest of the way (as unlikely as that is). The Bears are 2-6, but not quite as bad as their record, and have Jay Cutler back at quarterback now. They have been the third-most un-clutch team in the NFL, meaning they've struggled late in close games relative to their baseline performance. No play here.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Chicago -0.2, Total: 45.6
Erin Rynning:
The Bears have quietly improved on defense, while now ranking ninth in the NFL in yards per play. Importantly, after being decimated by injuries earlier in the season, the unit is regaining health, including the return of Pernell McPhee, and Eddie Goldman is hopeful to return this week. The Buccaneers' offense continues to lack the ability to consistently move the football, while injuries have hurt the running game. The Buccaneers' defense has been awful at times this season, allowing a horrific eight touchdown passes over its past two games, but the Bears have passed for just eight touchdowns all season, while averaging 16.4 points per game. I see this as a low-scoring affair.
Play: Lean under
Mike Clay:
Vegas likes the Bears to go on the road and knock off the Buccaneers, but I'm not quite as optimistic. Chicago's talented front seven is starting to reach its potential, but the Buccaneers' offense is far from a pushover unit. The Bucs have posted three-plus touchdowns in three consecutive games and have hit that mark in five of their eight games this season. In fact, Tampa Bay sits 10th in the league in offensive touchdowns per game (2.8). The Bears, meanwhile, have yet to score more than two offensive touchdowns in a single game this season and are averaging 1.5 per game (30th). Even against Tampa Bay's struggling defense, Chicago is unlikely to provide enough points to pull off the road win.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Chicago 20
The pick: Tampa Bay and the under -- TB 1.5, 45.5
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Opened Carolina -3; now Carolina -3
Total: Opened 44.5; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Carolina
Public perception: As much as the Panthers have struggled with their Super Bowl hangover at 3-5 SU and 2-5-1 ATS (with the push being last week in their 3-point win over the Rams), the public still likes them more than the Chiefs, a team that is 16-2 SU in their past 18 regular-season games.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split on this game. There was some movement to Carolina -3 (-120), but the Kansas City 3 (EVEN) lines got snapped up pretty quick.
Dave Tuley's take: The Panthers' defense finally stepped up last week, but that was against the Rams. I'm not a big fan of the Chiefs' offense, but they should still have success at Carolina. And if Cam Newton thinks he has been facing a lot of pressure (and a lot of hits) this season, wait until he sees the Chiefs' pass rush with Dee Ford and the expected return of Justin Houston.
The pick: Chiefs 3* (lean to under 44.5)
Rufus Peabody:?Carolina is 3-5 and Kansas City is 6-2, yet Carolina is a three-point favorite. Why? Because, despite the divergent records, Carolina is the better team. Kansas City has made its living off of turnovers, with an NFL-best plus-13 turnover differential. The Chiefs had no business winning last week, yet they did, despite averaging 4.4 yards per offensive play against a putrid Jacksonville defense (thanks turnovers!). The goddess of turnovers is going to have to keep shining on them to have a chance this week, but she is a fickle, random goddess. So I'll go with the predictive metrics, which say Carolina by 6.3.
Pick: Carolina -3, Lean over 44
Massey-Peabody Line: Carolina -6.3, Total: 46.2.
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Carolina 24, Kansas City 22
The pick: Kansas City and the over -- KC 3, 44.5
Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Opened Philadelphia -2.5; now Atlanta -2
Total: Opened 49.5; now 50
PickCenter public consensus pick: 84 percent Atlanta
Public perception: The public is all over the Falcons here, as these two teams are perceived to be heading in opposite directions with the Falcons on a path to the playoffs, while the Eagles have come down to earth after a fast start.
Wiseguys' view: Some sharps have joined the public on Atlanta to flip the favorite here, but there are sure to be some sharps who like Philadelphia and just haven't offered any resistance yet. The Eagles also look like a playable underdog teaser, as you can get them at 7.5 or higher in a game where they started as the favorites.
Dave Tuley's take: It's well-documented that I've been on the Falcons since last Super Bowl and after the schedules came out. At 6-3, they've met my lofty expectations, and this is another game they should win. The Eagles' defense isn't playing nearly as well as it did early this season, and the Falcons' big three of Matt Ryan/ Devonta Freeman/ Julio Jones should get the job done. I would lean to the over, but I'm not sure Carson Wentz & Co. will contribute enough (unless the Eagles get some help from the defense and/or special teams).
The pick: Lean to Falcons -2
Rufus Peabody: The public sentiment of Philadelphia built and reached a crescendo a few weeks into the season, but has since taken a nosedive. Now is the time to jump back on board the Philly bandwagon. The Eagles are Massey-Peabody's eighth-ranked team, and have a point differential of plus-57 on the year. Why are they only 4-4? They've been unclutch, playing substantially worse in the fourth quarter of close games.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, they've chosen to lose the wrong games -- their 0-3 divisional record and 2-4 conference record put them at a significant disadvantage in playoff tiebreaker scenarios, and they only have a 1-in-4 chance of making the playoffs. My model makes them a small favorite at home against Atlanta, giving them a 54.6 percent chance of winning. With the market moving toward Atlanta in the last day, I'll take the Eagles and the under.
Pick: Philadelphia 2, under 50
Massey-Peabody Line: Philadelphia -1.4, Total: 46.9
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 24.9, Philadelphia 24.6
Matchup: Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
Spread: Opened New York -2.5; now New York -1.5
Total: Opened 41; now 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent New York
Public perception: The public is on the Jets, as reports from the East Coast are saying that Ryan Fitzpatrick is expecting to be able to start, which is enough to make bettors side with the Jets, as the Rams are 0-2-2 ATS their past four games and needed to score their only touchdown against Carolina last week in garbage time to get one of those pushes.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps grabbed the Rams 2.5 and bet it down on the chance that Bryce Petty would be forced into action, but otherwise, there's no reason for sharps to land on one side or the other.
Dave Tuley's take: I would love to fade the Jets in this spot (and not just because they let me down against the Dolphins last week), but I just can't count on Case Keenum. The Jets should be able to stack the line to stop Todd Gurley. Meanwhile, the Rams' defense (No. 8 in yards allowed per game) should contain the Jets' offense as well, so I like the under better, though the oddsmakers make it tough with the total down to 39.5.
The pick: Lean to under 39.5 ( lean to Jets -1.5)
Rufus Peabody: Assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick plays here, the Jets are a value play. Yes, they're all but out of the playoff picture with six losses. Even if they could somehow manage to go 6-1 the rest of the way to get to nine wins, the Jets still only make the playoffs in 51 percent of my simulations. But the Jets are still a better team than their record indicates -- in fact, I'd make them less than a half-point underdog against 7-2 Oakland on a neutral field. Their turnover differential of minus-12 ranks last in football, and they've given up three defensive touchdowns and a kickoff return touchdown (which gave Miami the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter last week). Are the Jets an average team? No. But they're not far from it.
Pick: New York Jets -1.5
Massey-Peabody Line: New York Jets -5.1, Total: 39.9
Mike Clay:
I'm liking a bunch of under picks this week, but none stand out more than the one in New York. The Jets rank 27th in offensive scores per game (1.9) and the Rams rank 28th (1.6). The Jets' defense ranks 14th in touchdowns allowed (2.4) and the Rams' unit sits 18th (2.3). Additionally, a league-low 10 field goals have been attempted against Los Angeles. Neither of these offensive units is playing well, which suggests a low-scoring affair is on the horizon.
Prediction: New York Jets 18, Los Angeles 16
The pick: Under -- 39.5
Matchup: Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Opened New Orleans -1; now New Orleans -3
Total: Opened 49; now 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent New Orleans
Public perception: Both teams are longtime public teams, but the Saints had fallen out of favor, while the Broncos are the defending champs. However, this year's Saints team is getting more love with the No. 1 ranking in yards per game and rewarding backers at 6-2 ATS, including five straight covers.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps who like the Saints have jumped in and grabbed the lines under a field goal, but there's sure to be plenty who grab the Broncos 3 and higher.
Dave Tuley's take: I'm thrilled to get a full field goal with the Broncos. Granted, I would feel better if Aqib Talib were ready to return against the Saints' high-scoring offense, but I'm expecting a shootout similar to the Saints' Week 1 loss to Oakland, as the Broncos should move the ball at will against the Saints' 30th-ranked defense. I really believe this will come down to turnovers and, even without Talib, the Broncos have more defensive playmakers. In addition, Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Info passes on the fact that the Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS as underdogs since Gary Kubiak took over as head coach at the start of last season with seven outright upsets.
The pick: Broncos 3*
Rufus Peabody:?The Saints, after starting 0-3, have crawled their way back to a 4-4 record. Still, the numbers say they're better than a 4-4 team. New Orleans, which has faced the third-toughest schedule in football so far, has an easier schedule for the second half, and still has realistic playoff hopes, with a 37 percent chance of making it to the postseason. Denver is locked in a three-horse race with Kansas City and Oakland in the AFC West. Fun fact: According to my simulations, there's a 43 percent chance that both AFC wild-card teams come out of the AFC West. And there's a 21 percent chance that all four AFC West teams finish the season with winning records.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: New Orleans -3.0, Total: 48.2
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 28, Denver 22
The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO -2.5, 49
Matchup: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Opened pick 'em; now Jacksonville -2
Total: Opened 42.5; now 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Houston
Public perception: The Texans are a playoff contender, while the Jaguars continue to scuffle along at 2-6 SU and 3-4-1 ATS, so the public is clearly on the Texans.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened pick 'em and sharps were mostly split, as the public bet Houston to favoritism, but now they've jumped in and flipped it to the Jaguars being favored.
Dave Tuley's take: When first handicapping this week's game, I had a lean on the Texans at pick 'em and felt the same way at Houston -1.5. Now that we're actually getting points, I like the Texans even more, though still not enough as other underdogs on the Week 10 card. The stronger play looks like the under, as both offenses are inconsistent and you have Houston with the No. 5 defense in the league and Jacksonville as an under-the-radar 11th.
The pick: Under 42.5* (lean to Houston 2)
Rufus Peabody:?Jacksonville has moved from a 1.5-point dog to a two-point favorite. The Jaguars thoroughly outplayed Alex Smith-less Kansas City in Week 9, with my game grades showing they were 14 points better, yet they lost due to a turnover differential of minus-4. Still, it was by far Jacksonville's best game of the year, grading out as the fifth-best of the week. Houston comes off a bye, but that doesn't change the fact that the Texans are an awful team (despite their 5-3 record). Their offense has gained only 4.81 yards per play, worse than every team except Minnesota. This game is as close to a pick -- a very sad one -- as you can get, with my model giving Houston a 50.1 percent chance of winning.
Pick: Lean Houston 2.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Houston -0.03, Total: 43.8
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Houston 23, Jacksonville 20
The pick: Houston and the over -- HST -1, 42
Matchup: Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers
Spread: Opened San Diego -4; now San Diego -4
Total: Opened 48; now 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 79 percent San Diego
Public perception: The Chargers continue to be a public team with the No. 9 offense (with Melvin Gordon adding support for Philip Rivers) and a 6-3 ATS record for backers.
Wiseguys' view: There was early sharp support on the Dolphins, as the line dipped to 3.5 at several books, but it has been bet back up to 4. That will probably continue to happen through the weekend.
Dave Tuley's take: The Dolphins are a little tempting here plus the points, but I just don't trust their defense to be able to stop Rivers & Co., especially as the Chargers have figured how to close out games. Instead, I'm looking to the over. The Chargers are a clear over team at 7-2, while the Dolphins are 5-3 but have gone over the past two games and three of their past four, as Jay Ajayi has gotten the running game rolling and allowed Ryan Tannehill to spread the ball around more. We'll just cheer for another shootout with the Chargers.
The pick: Over 48.5* (lean to Chargers -4)
Rufus Peabody: Miami is riding a three-game winning streak, due in large part to a resurgent rushing attack anchored by Jay Ajayi. Miami has nine rushes of 15 or more yards during the past three games, but hasn't been quite as good at getting consistent yardage as getting chunk plays, which are more random. San Diego is much better than its 4-5 record. The Chargers have found creative ways to lose, and rate as the fifth-most unclutch team this season, according to my metrics. I lean San Diego at -3.5, but no play at -4.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: San Diego -5.6, Total: 47.8
Mike Clay:
Prediction: San Diego 28, Miami 23
The pick: San Diego and the over -- SD -4, 48.5
Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Opened Pittsburgh -3 (-120); now Pittsburgh -2.5
Total: Opened 50; now 50
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent Dallas
Public perception: It's almost shocking to see so much of the public betting against the Steelers at home, but the Cowboys are 7-1 (7-0-1 ATS) and on a roll, while the Steelers are coming off a bad performance against Baltimore in Ben Roethlisberger's return to the lineup.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps have joined with the public to take away all the Dallas 3s out there. The Cowboys also will be a popular underdog teaser play (the books will probably need to knock off Dallas in this leg of teasers or New England in the Sunday-nighter).
Dave Tuley's take: I believe the value on the Cowboys is gone at 2.5 and would actually lean to the Steelers now, since I haven't given up faith in them to turn this around as Big Ben gets healthier. But even as I expect to see more from the Pittsburgh offense, I don't expect its defense to shut down the balanced Dallas offense, so the play here is on the over. The total is relatively high at 50, but as we've seen many times this year, once teams start trading scores, no total is high enough.
The pick: Over 50* (lean to Steelers -2.5)
Rufus Peabody: I'm slowly buying into Dak Prescott, but what I really like is the Dallas offense as a whole. Besides the best offensive line in football, the Cowboys are loaded at skill positions, and Cole Beasley has morphed into the most recent clone of Wes Welker. How he has gotten so little attention the past two seasons, I don't know. The Dallas defense has showed considerable improvement from early in the season and faces a Pittsburgh squad that has struggled to move the ball consistently, rating 21st in offensive play success. I make the Cowboys a slight dog (48.2 percent chance of winning). Dallas is a play at 3, but not at 2.5. I do like the under.
Pick: Under 50
Massey-Peabody Line: Pittsburgh -0.5, Total: 47.1
Erin Rynning:
Take absolutely nothing away from the 7-1 Cowboys and an offense that continues to produce, as? Dak Prescott & Co. have been terrific. However, this is the league of parity, and playing at their staggering level is tricky to maintain -- specifically on the road against a true Super Bowl contender. The Steelers' offense looked rusty last week against the Ravens' capable defense with Roethlisberger returning from injury. Still, the Steelers showed in their Week 4 flattening of the Chiefs that they can be a handful on the bounce back. Look for Pittsburgh to simply outscore the Cowboys in a high-scoring affair, as their passing game perks up against the Cowboys' banged-up secondary.
Play: Lean Steelers
Mike Clay:
I realize this is a rivalry game and will be played in Pennsylvania, but I'm still surprised the red-hot 7-1 Cowboys are an underdog to a 4-4 Steelers squad that was just shut down by the Ravens. Dallas' offense has been outstanding, averaging 3.3 touchdowns per game (third most) and its defense also has been strong, allowing 1.9 scores per game (seventh fewest). The Steelers haven't struggled in the touchdown department, but they haven't been in scoring position as often as you might think. They sit ninth in offensive touchdowns (2.9 per game), but are dead last in the NFL with 10 field goal attempts. Granted, the Steelers have been better at home, but Dallas has scored more and allowed less on the road than it has at home this season. I expect the Cowboys to slip by with a victory.
Prediction: Dallas 25, Pittsburgh 23
The pick: Dallas and the under -- DAL 2.5, 50
Spread: Opened Arizona -12.5; now Arizona -13.5
Total: Opened 48.5; now 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Arizona
Public perception: The 49ers have lost and failed to cover their past seven games, so it doesn't matter how high this line has climbed, there are still more bettors willing to back the Cardinals.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps have mostly avoided this game. Usually, they would be on a double-digit underdog in this situation, but the 49ers' losing streak has even the wiseguys staying away.
Dave Tuley's take: Even I have had my fill of the 49ers, as I wrote in our midseason takeaways piece at Chalk. And that's a shame, as Arizona certainly doesn't seem worthy of being this big of a favorite. As a result, I'm looking to the under. The Cardinals still have the No. 1 defense in yards allowed per game, so I don't expect much from the 49ers, while the Cardinals' offense should get back on track against the 49ers' league-worst defense (and No. 32 against the run, so David Johnson fantasy owners are licking their chops), but I expect them to get an early lead and coast to keep it under the total.
The pick: Under 48.5* (lean to 49ers 13.5)
Rufus Peabody:?San Francisco has been a gold mine to fade this season, and has failed to cover in seven straight games. Arizona is only the sixth double-digit favorite of the season (it's 3-2 ATS, by the way). I've unfortunately been on the 49ers a lot since Colin Kaepernick was reinserted as the starting quarterback, and I will be on them again if the line gets up to 14, which it is threatening to do. As of now, though, I lean San Francisco 13.5.
Pick: Lean San Francisco 13.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Arizona -12.1, Total: 47.7
Erin Rynning:
Since their solid Week 1 showing, what has ensued for the 49ers is a complete disaster, not only losing seven straight games, but failing to cover in all seven as well. From the personnel to the coaching since Jim Harbaugh has left this organization, it has been a straight free fall. Of course, the hiring of Chip Kelly just added fuel to the fire. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are much better than their below-.500 record would indicate. Their defense ranks first in the NFL in yards allowed per game, which spells trouble once again for Kelly's offense. The Cardinals' offense has yet to hit its stride, although they've faced a slate of above-average defensive teams. Against this bottom-feeder 49ers defense, they'll excel.
Play: Cardinals
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Arizona 32, San Francisco 17
The pick: Arizona -- ARZ -13.5