Betting on a Kentucky title

— -- LAS VEGAS -- The No. 1 storyline after the NCAA field was announced Sunday was Kentucky's path to completing an undefeated season and cutting down the nets in Indianapolis on April 6.

Kentucky is undefeated and trying to become the first major college team to complete a perfect season since Bob Knight's 1975-76 Indiana team. A lot of media outlets even led with the odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook that have the Wildcats as the even-money favorite to win the title.

Last April, the then-LVH Hotel & Casino (which was bought by Westgate over the summer), opened Kentucky at 12-1. By July, the Wildcats were 9-2 to win the title. That's when the William Hill books opened a prop on whether they would go undefeated at 50-1 (you had to lay $80 to win $1 to bet against them going undefeated). Now it's seen as 50-50.

I think it's even more interesting that Kentucky was minus-140 (odds of 5-7) to win the title at the Westgate as recently as the week of Feb. 9. The Wildcats were then adjusted to minus-125 (odds of 4-5), and have been there the past month, but now are actually available at higher odds. But our purpose here is to not just have a theoretical or esoteric discussion of whether Kentucky will win its last six games and make history. Let's dig deeper and take a closer look at the Wildcats' potential path to completing the feat and look at where the potential landmines might be in their way (and, specifically, when it might be a good spot to bet against them).

I asked Jay Kornegay and his staff at the Westgate to give estimated point spreads for Kentucky's most likely potential opponents. Obviously, these lines are subject to change depending on how Kentucky or these teams look in the games between now and when the matchups take place. Additionally, injuries, as well as a variety of other factors can adjust the line as well.

Round of 64

Kentucky vs. No. 16 Manhattan/Hampton winner
Westgate projected lines: Kentucky -28 vs. Manhattan, Kentucky -34 vs. Hampton

Tuley's Take: Manhattan is a 7-point favorite over Hampton in Tuesday's First Four game to determine UK's first foe, and you can see the 7-point disparity is about the same for Thursday's game. Kornegay said he doesn't think the Westgate will offer a money line on this game as no 16-seed has ever defeated a No. 1 seed and it would have to be priced incredibly high. Having said that, with the spread being so high, I would have to take the underdog or pass. I understand those who say Kentucky can name the score, but the fact is that the Wildcats would be happy with a 20-point or 30-point win as there's no benefit for style points by running up the score.

ATS pick: Manhattan/Hampton winner. However, I doubt I'll play it. Actually, the one wager I'm considering is one that the Westgate often offers in mismatches such as this: "Will the underdog ever lead?" and we're almost assured of getting a plus price. The 'dog could get the opening tip and score or UK could score first and then give up a 3-pointer. Don't forget, Florida and Auburn both led against Kentucky in the SEC tournament so the Wildcats don't always go wire to wire.

Round of 32

Kentucky vs. No. 8 Cincinnati
Westgate projected line: Kentucky -19 vs. Cincinnati

Tuley's Take: Kornegay said the Westgate has Kentucky favored by 19 over Cincy, and with the 8-9 matchup of Cincy-Purdue at pick 'em, it can be assumed the line will be similar if the Boilermakers are UK's second opponent. I could see either team hanging with Kentucky, at least for a half. Cincinnati plays tough defense and would make the Wildcats work harder than they usually have to. The last we saw of Purdue, it was leading Wisconsin by five points at halftime before getting routed in the second half. This looks like a good spot to shorten the game and take the underdog in the first half, as they'll be getting double digits.

ATS pick: Cincinnati (or Purdue) plus double-digit points in the first half.

Sweet 16

Kentucky vs. No. 4 Maryland
Westgate projected line: Kentucky -15 vs. Maryland

Tuley's Take: I'm obviously hoping that Kentucky gets at least a scare in its opening-weekend game, and if that happens, coach John Calipari is likely to get his team's attention. I wouldn't like Maryland's chances even if the Wildcats rolled through their first two games and were overconfident, so I can't make a case for them in this spot with Calipari having the chance to refocus his players.

ATS pick: Kentucky

Elite 8

Kentucky vs. No. 2 Kansas
Westgate projected line: Kentucky -12 vs. Kansas

Tuley's Take: Kentucky beat Kansas 72-40 in November, and it wasn't even that close. The Jayhawks have played better since, but I would need a lot more points to consider fading UK against KU. For Kansas to get to this game, it likely will have to beat Notre Dame in the Sweet 16. A lot of people are pointing to Notre Dame as the team to take down Kentucky after the Irish won the ACC tourney -- and I agree. Notre Dame's outside shooting poses a real threat and back-to-back wins over Duke and North Carolina have to make the Irish confident they can stay on the floor with Kentucky if the matchup happens.

ATS pick: Pass on Kentucky-Kansas; possible play on Notre Dame.

Final Four

Kentucky vs. West No. 1 Wisconsin
Westgate projected line: Kentucky -6 vs. Wisconsin

Tuley's Take: If I were making odds on which round the Wildcats would lose, I would make this the favorite. Just look at last year when Kentucky barely beat Wisconsin 74-73 in the Final Four. A lot of the same players are back and Wisconsin still matches up well with UK. And if Kentucky doesn't meet Wisconsin here, the other likely opponent is Arizona, a worthy foe and a team some projected to be a No. 1 seed. Both teams have what it takes to pull off the upset.

ATS pick: Wisconsin plus-6 or thereabouts. Arizona is the pick with a similar line.

National title

Kentucky vs. South No. 1 Duke/East No. 1 Villanova
Westgate projected lines: Kentucky -6 vs. Duke, Kentucky -8 vs. Villanova

Tuley's Take: The hype would be off the charts if an undefeated Kentucky team were to take on Duke and Coach K in the title game. The Blue Devils famously upset the last undefeated team that got close to the championship, pulling off the shocker against UNLV in the Final Four in 1991. These proposed lines look short to me. Yes, theoretically, the lines should continue to shrink as UK faces better and better teams; but I would think that the bandwagon would continue to gain momentum if the Wildcats stay unbeaten. I doubt I'll take Duke plus-6, but the closer it gets to double digits, the more inclined I would be to take the Blue Devils. Villanova (or East No. 2 seed Virginia or South No. 2 seed Gonzaga) would have to show me more to get me to take the points in the title game unless the line gets inflated.

ATS pick: Probably pass on title game and watch the coronation, unless the lines come up higher than projected here.