The next big thing on ice: Forecasting this season's top teams
— -- This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's October 17 Great Debates Issue. Subscribe today!
LOOKING FOR A Stanley Cup winner? Start with the regular season. For that we turn to Hockey Prospectus VUKOTA, a system that uses past performance to project a team's goal differential. Barry Melrose and I faced off on the predictions -- and give our Cup picks.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
MATTHEW COLLER:?The Lightning would have seen a dip in their ranking if they had lost superstar Steven Stamkos; instead they bring back all the key players on a roster that was one win from the Stanley Cup finals. This is their time to finally break through. The Panthers should also improve their possession statistics and take some pressure off 2014 No. 1 pick Aaron Ekblad. But VUKOTA throws one big curveball in the Atlantic: Ottawa. Most see the Senators at the back of the field, but the numbers hint that they could be a breakout team with the addition of center Derick Brassard and key young players such as Curtis Lazar and Cody Ceci starting to come into their prime.
BARRY MELROSE:?I just think Tampa Bay is great. If Steven Stamkos stays healthy, you've also got Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman -- and the defense is great. The Lightning will score goals. And they've got two strong goaltenders. This is the year they'll win it.
Metropolitan Division
MATTHEW COLLER: Alex Ovechkin still wants to raise the Cup, and Sidney Crosby just won his second title. The consensus on Columbus is that it'll be at the bottom of the league, but the projections tell another story. If the Jackets get the Vezina Trophy version of goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, we could see them in the mix for a playoff spot. The Devils got much-deserved praise for making the best trade of the offseason -- dealing young defenseman Adam Larsson to the Oilers for LW Taylor Hall, the 2010 No.?1. But they didn't plug the hole left on D or improve the rest of the roster enough to seriously contend.
BARRY MELROSE: Washington has a high talent level. In the regular season, the Caps have always been very, very strong. I don't see any reason for them to fall off. Their star players are still at that age where they're in their prime.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
MATTHEW COLLER:?Winnipeg has a great chance to go from last in the Central to one of the best teams in the league. Not only will the goaltending be improved with Connor Hellebuyck getting a a chance to step up, but the Jets also have an outstanding group of rising players and prospects who'll make an impact, including No.?2 pick Patrik Laine, a right winger. It's possible the Predators would have been No. 1 with better goaltending. The projections leave little doubt: The Central is the most competitive division in the league, with only three points separating top from bottom.
BARRY MELROSE: I like Winnipeg. I've been raving about the Jets' players. Mark Scheifele is awesome; this Patrik Laine kid is fantastic. You've got Blake Wheeler. The defense is solid with Dustin Byfuglien. Connor Hellebuyck looks like he's a pretty good goaltender.
Pacific Division
MATTHEW COLLER:?The Sharks are still the best team, barring a major drop-off from veterans like Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton. After them, it's a toss-up. Anaheim looks vulnerable due to a combination of aging stars and questionable forward depth. Edmonton is a team on the rise but maybe a season away, as Connor McDavid could become the best player in the league. A coaching change should help Calgary maximize its young skill players' talents. The Coyotes probably aren't ready to run with the best teams in the division, but the numbers hint that they could be in the mix. As for Vancouver? The Canucks are in desperate need of a rebuild.
BARRY MELROSE: I'd put the Ducks ahead of Calgary. Corey Perry is fantastic. Sami Vatanen has been very good. Ryan Kesler is still a pretty good player. Are they getting older? Yeah. But I still think they are one of the top three teams in that division.
*Projected wild card berth