How to break down the College Football Playoff pecking order
— -- We're almost at the halfway point of the season, the time of year when the top teams in the country start to separate by rising to the top of their conference standings.
Clemson has emerged as the clear frontrunner to win the ACC, Washington has proven to be the team to beat in the Pac-12, and Alabama is still ... Alabama. In the Big Ten, the Ohio State-Michigan game can't get here soon enough, and the Big 12 is simply playing from behind, once again depending upon a backloaded league schedule to impress the selection committee when it matters most.
In the Group of 5, Houston's top four dreams were shattered on Saturday with an American Athletic Conference West Division loss to Navy.
Conference play has that effect, as teams knock each other out of the postseason picture and undefeated ranked teams -- gasp! -- lose. There are still 11 undefeated teams remaining, including nine from the Power 5 conferences. At this point last year, there were 16 unbeaten teams, and only one - Clemson - stayed that way.
Can this year's Power 5 frontrunners stay the course until Dec. 4 when the College Football Playoff selection committee releases its final ranking? The sport has a tendency to sort itself out.
In many ways, it already has.
Here's a closer look at the College Football Playoff pecking order heading into Week 7. For more, watch tonight's College Football Playoff: Top 25 (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET).
Tier I: Alabama stands alone
Until proven otherwise, Alabama remains king. Not even Ole Miss, which was the only team to beat the Tide in each of the past two seasons, was able to finish the job on its home turf this year. Here's the tricky part: Alabama is beginning its toughest three-game stretch of any season since 2005, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information. The Tide will travel to Tennessee this weekend, come home to face Texas A&M on Oct. 22, then have a bye week to prepare for a road trip to LSU on Nov. 5.
According to ESPN's Sharon Katz, an average FBS team would have a .05 percent chance to win all three games, which includes three opponents ranked in the top 12 of ESPN's Football Power Index (two on the road). Alabama isn't exactly average. ESPN's FPI gives the Tide a 29 percent chance to win its next three games.
If it does? Alabama stands alone -- again.
Tier II: Win and you're in
This group likely features the Big Ten champ, Pac-12 champ and ACC champ -- a forecast of three of the top four playoff spots. Add in the SEC champ (See: Tier I) and there's your top four.
Only one question here: Who's the Big Ten champ?
No, we can't fast-forward to Nov. 26, when Ohio State hosts Michigan, but that will be The Answer to the Big Ten's playoff question. It's possible -- but extremely unlikely -- for the runner-up to get into the top four, especially if the other candidates here run the table and win their leagues. According to ESPN's FPI, Clemson has a 36 percent chance to enter bowls undefeated, Michigan 34 percent and Washington 31 percent. We will know a lot more about the Buckeyes on Saturday after their trip to Wisconsin, an opponent Michigan already defeated.
And then there's Texas A&M. The Aggies already have wins over UCLA, Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee, but none of it will amount to a top-four spot if the Aggies can't win at Alabama on Oct. 22 (See: Tier I). ESPN's FPI gives A&M a 29.3 percent chance at the upset. If the Aggies can pull it off, it will change the playoff picture instantly.?
Tier III: Playoff worthy but needs help
The ACC appears to be the Power 5 conference with the best chance to get two teams in the top four in spite of the Cardinals' narrow, thrilling loss at Clemson on Oct. 1. The only reason this scenario isn't far-fetched is because Louisville has looked like a top-four team with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, and it's favored to win each remaining game by at least 70 percent.
The problem is Houston is the only ranked team remaining on the Cardinals' schedule, and Houston just lost to Navy. Now, Houston might not even win its own West Division in the American Athletic Conference. It would still be a respectable win for Louisville, but it won't carry as much weight with the committee as it would have had the Cougars been fighting for a spot in the top four. Louisville's best hope is not only to win out, but to have another conference champion with a weaker strength of schedule slip up and have two losses.
Tier IV: The Power 5 undefeateds
Candidates:?Baylor, Nebraska, West Virginia
Baylor has almost no margin for error, as it faces the same nonconference strength-of-schedule questions it had in the first two years of the CFP. With wins against SMU, Northwestern State and Rice, an undefeated season is the Bears' only realistic hope at cracking the top four.
Nebraska has quietly gotten off to a 5-0 start, but the Huskers have back-to-back road trips at Wisconsin (Oct. 29) and Ohio State (Nov. 5) -- the only two games on their schedule ESPN's FPI doesn't project them to win. If they escape those trips, it's time for a more serious conversation. The same can be said for West Virginia, which has played only one FBS team (Kansas State) with a winning record. If the Mountaineers are still undefeated heading into November, after road trips to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, that's only half the battle. Texas, OU and Baylor still await.