Cardale Jones' NFL draft stock
— -- Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Cardale Jones has had one of the more remarkable career starts in college football history, winning the Big Ten championship, the Sugar Bowl and the national championship in his first three starts -- playing very well and with a lot of poise for a first-time starter in the process.
Now that he says he's considering entering the 2015 NFL draft, he has the potential to become one of the more intriguing draft prospects we've ever seen as well.
Here is my scouting take on Jones after his three games, plus a look at what his draft stock might be if he chooses to leave early.
How does Jones project to the NFL?
The best NFL comparison I can make for Jones is that he's an extremely raw version of Ben Roethlisberger. This has to do with Jones' big, strong frame (listed at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, compared to Roethlisberger's 6-5, 241), his impressive arm talent and his ability to extend plays with strength and mobility. Jones can drive the ball vertically with ease, and he shows the ability to put proper tempo on the ball and layer it between zones. He'd be best-suited for a vertical passing game in the NFL like the ones run in Baltimore or Arizona.
Jones has shown a lot of promise on conflict throws. He can still improve his eye discipline when dealing with the rush (climbing the pocket versus outside pressure and sliding versus inside pressure), but there's no questioning his toughness and ability to deliver a strike when staring down the rush. He has flashed the ability to throw accurately when rolling to either side, and he's good when the initial play breaks down.
When he runs, he's a bull. He was plowing guys over all night -- safeties, linebackers, nose tackles, it didn't matter. He won't run in the NFL like he did in his three games this season -- nobody does, not even Cam Newton, Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick -- but his strength is a huge asset in terms of durability, extending plays and short-yardage situations. I'm also tremendously impressed with Jones' poise; this dude showed no heightened pulse in three of the biggest games you can play in at the college level. The moment was never too big for him.
Jones went through his progressions at times in Monday night's College Football Playoff title game win over Oregon, which was the first time I'd seen him do that in his three games. That's a positive sign, as are the patience and field vision he showed against the Ducks. But he was also able to sit back in the pocket all night, with Oregon's pressure rarely getting to him. For the most part in his three starts, he would make one read or two reads and then take off running, so there's room for improvement here.
The biggest question NFL teams would have to study in evaluating Jones is his mental makeup, because that's just such an unknown at this point given his inexperience. Jones has shown improvement in this area in his three games, but it's still nowhere near what you'd like to see from a drafted QB.
Other areas of concern: Jones has been careless with the football at times, and he has been late on his reads. The first-half play to Devin Smith that resulted in pass interference was a perfect example. He was facing a single high safety look, and the safety rotated to Jones' left at the snap of the ball. The ball should have been thrown right then -- an NFL quarterback needs to be able to see that immediately and get the ball out on time. Instead, Jones hung on to the ball for two beats longer, and while he still got away with it in the sense that the play resulted in a penalty, he left a touchdown on the field by not making the throw on time. That's the type of thing NFL teams are going to be studying.
What factors will go into Jones' decision?
Jones does not have much time to decide on the 2015 NFL draft; the deadline for underclassman declarations is Thursday. I asked some of my contacts in the league if they thought Jones might be able to get an extension on the deadline from the league, given his unique circumstances, so that he could get a grade from the advisory committee.
No one is too sure of whether that could happen (colleague Chris Mortensen told me that the league is looking into it), and more likely than not, Jones would receive a grade outside the first two rounds from the committee. (The league recently reduced the categories on their advisory opinions to three: first round, second round, and neither, which equates to the board advising the player to return to school.) But an extension would at least give Jones a little more time to gather educated opinions and make up his mind, which is only fair.
What is Jones' draft stock right now?
Heading into Monday night's title game, I would have said that Jones was somewhere in the seventh-round or undrafted free-agent range, but after seeing the way he performed in the championship game win, including the fact he was able to go through his progressions and display outstanding poise, I think he's more in the fourth- or fifth-round range. I texted three NFL scouts Tuesday morning, and all three pegged Jones as a Day 3 prospect. However, they admitted they would have much more work to do studying him if he declares.
Any NFL team that drafted him would be gambling on his raw tools, and they would need to have a quarterback coach on staff who is: A) willing to invest the necessary time to develop him; and B) capable of translating Jones' physical abilities to the NFL level.
Bottom line: This is a highly unusual situation. It'd be extremely rare for a quarterback to be drafted after just three games, even one with Jones' raw abilities. But rarely, if ever, do we see a QB have a three-game debut like the one Jones just put together.