Cavaliers get their (big) man
— -- Here's a breakdown of the trade between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets.
Cavaliers get: center Timofey Mozgov
Nuggets get: 2015 Memphis first-round pick (protected 1-5 and 15-30), 2015 Oklahoma City first-round pick (top-18 protected)
Cleveland Cavaliers: B+
With their second trade of the week, the Cavaliers have cashed in all their trade chips for this season in an effort to fill the biggest holes that have held them back in the first season of LeBron James' return to Cleveland. Monday's three-team trade with the New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder brought the Cavaliers a wing defender ( Iman Shumpert), as well as a first-round pick that Cleveland almost immediately flipped as part of this deal to land a rim protector (Mozgov).
Just as with Shumpert, Mozgov is an obvious fit for the Cavaliers' needs since they signed James and traded for Kevin Love. Cleveland has apparently been trying to pry Mozgov away from Denver for that long, a process that took on added urgency with Anderson Varejao's season-ending Achilles injury. Hence the Cavaliers' willingness to surrender two first-round picks for Mozgov; a high price, but one they were right to pay.
Unfortunately, Cleveland doesn't have much time for patience. Love's free agency this summer creates tremendous pressure to win immediately, as does James' advancing age. The Cavaliers couldn't afford to wait to fill their need for a 7-footer until next summer, when they'll have the ability to add salary using Brendan Haywood's nonguaranteed contract. Cleveland had to make a move now, and Mozgov was an ideal fit.
Mozgov isn't an elite rim protector, but he's solidly above average in this regard. This season, opponents were shooting 48.6 percent within 5 feet of the basket with Mozgov as the closest defender, per SportVU tracking available on NBA.com/Stats. Last season, Mozgov rated even better at 47.1 percent, ahead of other possible Cavaliers targets like Kosta Koufos (47.6 percent) and Samuel Dalembert (52.0 percent). (Koufos has the edge this season, at 44.9 percent.)
By contrast, current Cleveland big men Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love have allowed 51.1 and 59.9 percent shooting around the basket, respectively, and as a team the Cavaliers are allowing opponents to shoot a league-high 56.5 percent when defended within 5 feet, also according to SportVU data.
At the other end, Mozgov is relatively skilled for a 7-footer. While he hasn't been as effective offensively this season as last season -- his true shooting percentage is down to .554 this season from an excellent .584 last season -- while using plays at nearly a league-average rate, Mozgov is a fine pick-and-roll player who can finish around the rim. He's also a threat on the offensive glass. The Cavaliers won't likely ask much of Mozgov offensively, and would be wise to limit his less-efficient post touches, but he can keep defenders honest. And if anyone knows how to use Mozgov, it's Cleveland coach David Blatt, who coached him with the Russian national team at international competitions, including the 2012 Olympics.
This is an important moment for Blatt. I suspect that part of the Cavaliers' urgency to make these deals a month in advance of the trade deadline was a chance to see this squad in action well ahead of the playoffs. Once James is healthy, the Cleveland front office will have addressed many of the justifications for why the team had underachieved this season. If the Cavaliers continue to struggle, it will be on the coach, and other than signing buyout candidates or a free agent like Ray Allen, a coaching change is the last move the organization can make to shake things up before next summer.
On paper, this now looks like a fully realized Cleveland team with a 7-footer to pair with Thompson and Love, and a deeper wing rotation with Shumpert to handle the toughest perimeter matchups. We'll see whether that's good enough.
Denver Nuggets: A+
Though I like the move for them, the Cavaliers violated one of Billy Beane's five rules for trading as laid out in "Moneyball": "Never get yourself into a position where you're saying, 'I have to do something.'" The Nuggets were in position to take advantage, commanding a pair of first-round picks for a player who is, at best, an average starting center.
Denver's front office controlled these negotiations from the start, and its patience leveraged the best deal possible for Mozgov. The Nuggets started to set this up by identifying in the summer of 2013 that Mozgov was capable of producing more in a bigger role after Koufos' departure, and re-signing him to a three-year, $14 million contract that has proved a steal. With a year left on Mozgov's contract, Denver didn't need to move him, but was able to do so at the peak of his value.
The timing also made sense for the Nuggets. They sit 11th in the West, five games out of a playoff spot and unlikely to catch the New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns, let alone the Oklahoma City Thunder. It's time for Denver to begin preparing for the future. There's enough talent on hand that the Nuggets don't have to strip down, but they can sell off spare parts like Mozgov, Wilson Chandler and possibly Arron Afflalo, Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee.
Fortunately, the Nuggets already appear to have their long-term replacement for Mozgov on the roster. Jusuf Nurkic has been the most effective 2014 draftee during his rookie season. At age 20, Nurkic is averaging 17.4 points and 13.6 rebounds per 36 minutes. There are plenty of rough edges to Nurkic's game -- he's averaging 7.7 fouls per 36 minutes and turns the ball over on one of every six plays -- but they figure to improve with experience. His combination of size, strength and surprising agility marks him as a possible star.
In Nurkic and Gary Harris, the Nuggets have two first-round rookies currently on their roster. This deal sets them up to potentially have two first-rounders again this season, should Oklahoma City's pick fall outside the top 18 (more likely than not). Denver probably won't get the Memphis pick until 2017, since it is protected if the Grizzlies make the playoffs, but that would be seven first-round picks in a four-year span -- an excellent way to start building the roster back up.