Chiefs a threat to Broncos, Pats
— -- At this time last season, the Kansas City Chiefs were 9-1 and in first place in their division. Through 10 games in 2014, the Chiefs are 7-3, tied with Denver in the AFC West standings but technically second by virtue of losing to the Broncos in Denver back in Week 2. And yet, despite an inferior record and spot in the division standings, there's little doubt that the Chiefs are a better team now than they were at this juncture of the season in 2013.
Catalyzed by a strong rushing attack, a mistake-free quarterback and a relentless pass rush, the Chiefs have emerged as an AFC contender. Here's why they could create trouble for either the Patriots or Broncos in the postseason.
Their ground game is tough to stop
Since returning from an injury in Week 5, running back Jamaal Charles has been on a torrential pace against terrific competition. Four of the Chiefs' seven opponents during that stretch have ranked among the NFL's top 10 rushing defenses, but Kansas City has remained undeterred in featuring Charles.
The value of running the football surfaces in a variety of ways, not the least of which is it can prolong drives and keep opposing offenses off of the field. In two games against other top AFC teams -- the Patriots and Broncos -- the Chiefs' average time of possession was 36:20, while New England and Denver ran a total of 95 plays. The Chiefs totaled 69 rushes for 340 yards in those two games while limiting the Patriots and Broncos to just 41 combined points. Even though they lost to Denver back in Week 2, the Chiefs showed they can contain opposing offenses in part by keeping them off the field.
Something of note going forward is the continued implementation of rookie offensive weapon De'Anthony Thomas, an electric fourth-round pick who has just 15 career touches, four of which came in Week 11. Thomas is at his best getting the ball at or near the line of scrimmage, and we've seen the Chiefs use Thomas on jet sweeps in which he motions toward where the ball is going to be snapped, taking an immediate handoff after it is snapped.
Not only does that create explosive edge plays for Thomas, but it allows the Chiefs to use Thomas as a decoy when they fake jet sweeps, something that forces edge defenders to stay at home and creates more space for Charles to operate between and beyond the tackles. With very good athletes at multiple positions, the Chiefs can manufacture ways to find space in the run game.
And something we've seen from the Chiefs with Thomas is the use of what is known as a package play. Package plays are used around the league, but the Chiefs have found success with them recently. Essentially, a package play is two or more play options within one play call, as the quarterback makes the determination of which play to run based on how the defense reacts at the snap. For example, within one play, quarterback Alex Smith could have the option to throw the football to Thomas on a receiver screen or hand it off to Charles. If the defense over-commits to Charles, Smith throws to Thomas. If the defense jumps the screen look, Smith hands it off to Thomas. It's yet another way for the Chiefs to put their best players in favorable situations.
They are winning the turnover game
An added element to the equation of keeping opposing offenses off the field is that the Chiefs rarely turn the football over. Since their Week 1 loss to Tennessee -- the only game in which they have not been competitive this season -- the Chiefs have just seven total turnovers. Of the eight NFL teams with 10 or fewer turnovers this season, none has fewer than six wins. The teams with the top records in their respective conferences -- the 9-1 Cardinals and 8-2 Patriots -- have a turnover differential of +11.
And while the Chiefs have struggled to create turnovers, they've been so secure with the football this season -- Smith has thrown just four interceptions, second fewest among quarterbacks who have started every game for their team in 2014 -- that their minus-3 turnover differential has not brought them down.
They are among the league's best at generating pressure
Again using the offenses run by Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as the barometer, the best way to slow down a high-octane offense is pressure on the quarterback. And while teams can certainly scheme pressure (through blitzes and stunts), the most effective pressure against elite quarterbacks comes through natural rushes, where the offensive line simply isn't able to contain the defensive front. Pressure with plenty of players in coverage is a recipe for success.
That's because quarterbacks like Manning and Brady are so capable of identifying blitz pressure pre-snap and putting their offensive line and other players involved in the protection scheme in the right spot and calling out the proper assignments. When they have pressure in their face from the opponent's front four, it takes away one of their greatest advantages.
The Chiefs have as much pass-rushing talent on their defensive front as any other team in the AFC and arguably the entire league. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are edge rushers with relentless motors and a variety of maneuvers to complement their physical skills, while nose tackle Dontari Poe, a 350-pound athletic freak of nature, and Allen Bailey are exceptional interior rushers who overwhelm guards and centers. The Chiefs don't need to rely on using more than four rushers to get to the opposing quarterback -- the pass rush is that good. The Chiefs have sacked opposing quarterbacks on 9.1 percent of their pass attempts, per ESPN Stats & Info, third best in the NFL. The front seven -- which has held up through a season-ending injury to star linebacker Derrick Johnson -- has aided a secondary that has also exceeded preseason expectations.
The Chiefs' remaining schedule is difficult, as they play four teams with winning records, including the Arizona Cardinals, currently standing at 9-1. And while Thomas has seen increased usage in recent weeks, the team still lacks an established explosive passing-game target, as evidenced by its 25 passing plays of over 20 yards, 29th in the NFL (incidentally, the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that has yet to throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver this season).
But what the Chiefs have are three ingredients, as outlined above, that are central to a team's success in neutralizing and defeating the two teams that many regard as the power players in the AFC: New England and Denver. If you can get pressure in the face of Brady and Manning while at the same time limiting their time on the field, you'll have a better chance of beating them, and the Chiefs are capable in both of those areas. Even if Kansas City doesn't win the AFC West this season, the Chiefs have emerged as a threat to compete in the AFC come playoff time.
Notes
• Lessons from the RB free-agent market: While there wasn't a true standout running back available in free agency during the 2014 offseason, I think teams can learn a lesson from signings that took place for midlevel (or below) players. Consider some of the highest-paid running backs this offseason: Chris Johnson (two years, $8 million), Ben Tate (two years, $7 million), Rashad Jennings (four years, $10 million), Toby Gerhart (three years, $10.5 million), Donald Brown (three years, $10.5 million) and Maurice Jones-Drew (three years, $7.5 million).
While none of these deals was steep with guaranteed money, it feels like a prudent approach to the running back position is to seek value through the draft and pad depth through free agency largely in minimum-money deals (the Ravens owe Justin Forsett just $730,000 for 2014). Of the aforementioned higher-paid backs, Jennings has been the best value and a worthwhile add, but the recent releases of Ben Tate and LeGarrette Blount (two years, $3.85 million) underscore that point about being patient.
• Week 17 flex candidates: There are four divisions in which two teams currently share the lead for the best record: the AFC West, NFC East, NFC North and NFC South. In all of those divisions, the two teams tied at the top face off against each other at least once more this season (Dallas and Philadelphia have a three-week stretch that includes two matchups).
The NFL keeps open its prime-time slot for Week 17 when crafting its original schedule, which allows it to flex a game of postseason significance into that time frame closer to the actual date. Given their current records (both 7-3 and atop the NFC North), the Packers-Lions tilt might be a game to file away as a potential flex option. Same goes for: Browns-Ravens, Chargers-Chiefs, Bengals-Steelers and Cardinals-49ers.