Clayton's crystal ball: Predicting second half of NFL season
— -- The first half of the NFL season turned out to be mostly unpredictable.
The NFC was surprisingly down. A rookie quarterback, Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys, is running away with the No. 1 seed in a conference that has Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Eli Manning. The New England Patriots, who didn't have Tom Brady for the first four games, lead the AFC East by three games and appear to be coasting to home-field advantage.
And, talk about a flip in the standings: The NFC East, which was arguably the worst division in football last season, is 13-5-1 in non-divisional games this season, and every team is .500 or above. The NFC West, as recently as last season considered the best division in football, is 7-13 in non-division games and has only one team with a winning record.
Let's take a stab at 15 predictions for the second half of the season:
1.?Prescott will take the 7-1 Cowboys into the playoffs and draw a first-round bye. The Cowboys have the ninth-toughest closing schedule in the league based on other teams' winning percentage, but they should get to 11 wins -- at least. What they have to worry about is facing a defense such as Seattle or Minnesota in the playoffs, teams that could make it tough for a rookie quarterback to win a playoff game. But the Cowboys probably would have home-field advantage.
2.?The 5-4? Detroit Lions, believe it or not, will win the NFC North. With five fourth-quarter comebacks this season,? Matthew Stafford?has become the? comeback king of the league. The edge for the Lions over the 5-3 Vikings and 4-4 Packers is that three of their four remaining home games are against NFC North teams. If the Lions establish home-field advantage at Ford Field, the NFC North is theirs.
3. Even though the 7-2? Oakland Raiders lead the AFC West, the 6-2 Chiefs have the best chance to win the division. They have a solid defense that gives up only 18.9 points per game.? Dee Ford has nine sacks, and the Chiefs could get back outside linebacker Justin Houston, one of the best pass-rushers in the league, this week. Their offense is only in the middle of the pack (15th in points scored), but quarterback? Alex Smith?manages games and isn't going to make crucial mistakes to lose them. The challenge for the Raiders is that they lost to Kansas City at home, and their three remaining road games are against AFC West teams.
4.? Atlanta Falcons quarterback? Matt Ryan will win the MVP award, but Russell Wilson of the Seahawks should finish right behind him. Wilson has been playing with two major injuries that would have sidelined other players for at least four weeks -- a third-degree MCL sprain and a high ankle sprain. He is getting healthier, and the Seahawks?will be dangerous in January.
5. Even though Gus Bradley has improved the 2-6? Jacksonville Jaguars' defense to the 11th best in yards allowed -- they ranked 24th last season -- he might be the first head coach to be fired. Offensive line coach Doug Marrone is in place to take over as the interim coach, and his former offensive coordinator in Buffalo, Nathaniel Hackett, is the offensive coordinator. A poor defensive game against Matthew Stafford and the Lions in two weeks could be the breaking point in determining whether Bradley can make it to the end of the season. He needs wins now -- he's 14-42 as coach of the Jags.
6.? San Diego Chargers defensive end? Joey Bosa will win Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. Despite missing four games with a hamstring injury after his training camp holdout, Bosa has four sacks already and has done more in five weeks of playing than any other rookie defender did in nine games. The No. 3 pick looks like the real deal.
7. If the Cleveland Browns don't beat the Baltimore Ravens?on?a short week on Thursday night, they will go 0-16. This is their best chance to pick up a victory. Home games against Pittsburgh, the New York Giants, Cincinnati and San Diego will be tough, and road games against Buffalo and Pittsburgh are probably losses. The rebuild has left the Browns devoid of talent at almost every position. The 2017 draft will be huge for their future.
8.?Rookie quarterback? Jared Goff's first start for the Los Angeles Rams will be against Atlanta on Dec. 11. Coach Jeff Fisher wants to keep Case Keenum?as the starter until the Rams are out of playoff contention. Three of the next four games are on the road, and that isn't the best place to give a rookie QB his debut. The next home game is Nov. 20 against Miami, but the Rams won't be completely out of playoff contention by them.
9. The 5-2-1 Seahawks will finish 11-4-1. The Seahawks will be favored in their final four home games, against the Eagles, Panthers, Rams and Cardinals. It will be hard to win Sunday night against the Patriots, and the Seahawks have another tough trip to Green Bay on Dec. 11. If they pull out a win in Green Bay, they have a shot at the No. 1 seed.
10.?Owner Mark Davis has a great chance of getting league support to move the Raiders to Las Vegas, though there are still issues?that should push the decision until March or later. Davis is wise in sticking with the $750 million proposal from the state of Nevada, but lots of things need to be studied before a final vote is taken by owners.
11. Three AFC West teams will make the playoffs, and they can thank the schedule. The AFC West plays the NFC South and the AFC South, two divisions that have produced only one defense, the? Houston Texans, giving up less than 25.1 points per game. The West is 14-5 against those two divisions, and there are 13 games left.
12. Rex Ryan will keep his job as the coach of the Buffalo Bills. He was on the hot seat going into the season and looked on his way out after Buffalo started 0-2. But the Bills are improved this season, even if they are 4-5, and injuries have made the challenge difficult. I don't think the Bills will make the playoffs, but Ryan has done enough to?remain the coach.
13.?After the season, the? Washington Redskins?will give quarterback? Kirk Cousins?a contract extension worth more than $20 million per season. For the second straight year, Cousins has the Redskins in playoff contention. Like Joe Flacco a few years ago, Cousins gambled on himself by not signing a contract extension?-- and won.
14. The 4-4? Pittsburgh Steelers will bounce back and win the AFC North, but it won't be easy. Four of their next six games are on the road. As long as Ben Roethlisberger is playing, though, the offense will?improve. If he gets hurt again, the Steelers are in trouble.
15. Even though the politics didn't work out for the Chargers to win a stadium vote in San Diego, the Spanos family won't make a quick jump to Los Angeles. Their best hope is an appeal to the?California Supreme Court to get a simple majority vote on a stadium instead of a two-thirds vote.
Bonus: I'm picking a Seattle-New England Super Bowl. I'm not ready to choose a winner just yet, but I like these two to face off in a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX.