Cleveland Cavaliers: 2015-16 player profiles
— -- Go to: Starters | Reserves
Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 projections for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Projected starters
Kyrie Irving
Position: Guard
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Dynamite drive-and-kick point guard
+ Elite shot-making ability with 3-point range
+ Improved but below-average defensive point guard
Analysis
At the bottom line of the value metrics, Kyrie Irving was virtually the same player last season as he's been through his career. Still, for the first time, Irving proved his immense production can come in the context of a high-level team performance. Irving has never been better and showed he is a worthy successor to Dwyane Wade as LeBron James' running mate.
First the value metrics: Irving's winning percentage the past three seasons has been .606, .592 and .605. Consistent. His WARP last season (10.8) was a career high, but that was simply because he was on the floor more often, getting into 75 games and logging a career-high 2,730 minutes. The leap in his game comes in the impact category. His 95th percentile WARP in 2013-14 went with just a 66th percentile RPM (minus-0.31). Last season, he was in the 96th percentile in WARP and his single-season RPM (plus-3.40) jutted up to the 93rd percentile. That kind of symmetry is a sure sign that a player is producing not just for himself, but for his teammates as well.
Playing next to James, the primary change in Irving's game was that his frontcourt touches decreased by 11 per 100 possessions over the previous season, per SportVu. Beyond that, his per-touch tendencies were similar. He passed a little more frequently, took shots at about the same rate and surprisingly was also steady in areas like getting catch-and-shoot looks and working in isolation. But the James tide raises all boats and with Irving, that came in the form of enhanced efficiency. He hit 41.5 percent from deep, 46.6 percent from midrange, cut his turnovers and even finished a little better around the basket. His rate of assist opportunities went down, but his per-pass creating of scoring plays was about the same. All in all, his .583 true shooting percentage came on a 26.2 percent usage rate, which is All-NBA material.
Irving's defensive metrics were on the upswing as well. His single-season defensive RPM was a career-best minus-0.89. He could do better, but it's unlikely Irving will ever be honored at that end. The Cavs' defensive rating was about 1.5 points better with Irving off the floor. What you'd like to see is eventually he gets to the point where there isn't a drop-off at all -- you want your core players to be part of your best defensive units. Though Irving played the most he's ever played and got his first taste of playoff action, injuries once again became part of his narrative when he was felled by a knee injury during the postseason. The Cavs will be cautious with Irving and estimates for his return have ranged widely, from soon after opening night to late December. Irving begins the first year of his five-year max extension and it's imperative that he remain healthy to the end if Cleveland is finally going to snap its championship drought. We saw the limits of what James can do on his own. Impressive though it was, his effort didn't bring home the crown. Irving must be there to help.
Iman Shumpert
Position: Guard
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Athletic, defensively effective backcourt defender
+ Streaky shooter who struggles to finish around the basket
+ Good passer and above-average ball protector
Analysis
Iman Shumpert ended last season a little battered, and he'll begin this season much the same. In between, he signed a four-year, $40 million deal to remain a key complementary player on a Cleveland team hoping to ring up some titles. Despite once again producing numbers at a rate just above replacement level (0.7 WARP), Shumpert showed he can be a key piece in a supporting role on a good team. His RPM (plus-2.25) was again in the league's top 15 percent. Over the full season between New York and Cleveland, Shumpert was plus on the offensive end in RPM, and for the third straight season well over break-even on defense. His role shrunk after his trade to the Cavaliers, but his importance did not.
Shumpert's usage rate dropped by 5.1 percent when he switched teams, then fell another 2.7 percent in the postseason, when he battled shoulder and groin injuries. He became even more of a jump shooter with the Cavs. That probably was a good thing because Shumpert chronically struggles to finish at the basket, despite superlative leaping ability. He struggled from the corners a year ago in comparison to past seasons, but was solid above the break and from midrange. Playing alongside Kyrie Irving and LeBron James, Shumpert's catch-and-shoot game is of increasing importance. But his stroke comes and goes, as is evidenced by a sub-par free throw percentage (67.2) and a 10th-percentile rating in unguarded catch-and-shoot situations, per Synergy. Shumpert is an above-average passer, though the need for him to be a playmaker is marginalized in Cleveland.
Shumpert's defensive impact with the Cavs was considerable. Cleveland was 6.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, and his defensive RPM (plus-1.92) reached the 90th percentile. Shumpert's steal rate was in the league's top 7 percent. Some of his per-play metrics from Synergy lag, especially against the pick-and-roll (16th percentile) and isolations (4th percentile). But the Cavs gave up just 99.2 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court, the best figure on the entire roster. And after the trade, he held opposing 3-point shooters 6.8 percent below their norm, per SportVu. So he's doing something right. A preseason wrist injury to Shumpert's shooting wrist will muddy the waters for Cleveland early in the season. While he'll be able to stay conditioned, there's not much you can do to keep your shooting touch sharp with a wrist injury. His modus operandi in Cleveland is as a 3-and-D specialist and for a while, the 3 part of that equation might lag.
LeBron James
Position: Forward
Experience: 12 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Despite a slight decline in shooting last season, remained among the elite of the elite
+ Great scorer and passer, with league's highest basketball IQ
+ Athletic indicators remained intact despite early-season back trouble
Analysis
More than ever, LeBron James showed us last season he's willing to do whatever it takes to win. How James played during the last couple of rounds of the playoffs was something we've never seen from him before. The Cavs came up two wins shy of a title and in terms of shooting percentage, James never has been more inefficient. Yet in many ways, he's never been more impressive. Launching 30-plus shots per game is just not James' way. He's taken 33 shots or more 19 times in his career, including the playoffs. Five of those came in the Finals against Golden State, including a career-high 38 FGAs in Game 1. His per-game averages of 30.1 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists over 20 playoff games were 1960s Oscar-Robertson numbers.
The performance capped a mostly triumphant return to Cleveland for James after some early road bumps. A bad back limited him early on, he missed some games, and the Cavs struggled to meet sky-high expectations. But after some mid-season roster shuffling, the Cavs and coach Dave Blatt fully integrated with the game's biggest star. The slow start kept James' WARP down a bit, which is a relative statement: After finishing first or second in WARP for 10 straight seasons, in 2015-16 he was seventh. But his multi-season RPM remains the best in the game and it's hard to argue that any current player has more of an impact on this team's success.
James didn't shoot the ball as well from deep as he has in past seasons, and that became more and more of a problem in the postseason, when he was forced to repeatedly bully his way to the paint. Beyond that, all his indicators were steady. Same elite passer, albeit with a few more turnovers. Same above-average rebounder. Same top-flight defender. He spent more time on the wing and less at 4 than he did in Miami, before becoming more or less an enormous full-time point guard after Kyrie Irving went down during the playoffs.
James turns 31 on Dec. 30 of this season, so we can't take this level of performance for granted. But if the one flaw in his game last season was his shooting stroke, you can expect a torrid showing in 2015-16. There has been talk of monitoring James' minutes which is a good idea. However, it might be tough to pull off early in the season because of the number of James' teammates recovering from injury.
Kevin Love
Position: Forward
Experience: 7 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Skilled scorer and passer from big-man positions
+ Prolific defensive rebounder
+ Not a defensive anchor, but holds up in team concept
Analysis
Kevin Love didn't put up the numbers his first season in Cleveland at the same level he did in Minnesota, when he climbed as high as third in the NBA in WARP. But to label Love's season a disappointment is to set an awfully high standard. Clearly the Cavaliers weren't deterred by the performance of the player for whom they traded away Andrew Wiggins: Cleveland gave Love a five-year, $110 million deal to remain as the league's best third wheel. The only real disappointment in Love's season was that the nasty shoulder injury he suffered against Boston in the first round limited his first playoff exposure to just four games. During the regular season, the Cavs' offensive rating was four points better with Love on the floor, and three points better on defense. So while his WARP tumbled from 20.2 and his RPM from plus-5.45 to plus-2.71, he was still in the top 10 percent of the most-impactful players in the NBA. That's a pretty good "down" season.
The Cavs could have done a better job at using Love in a more versatile fashion, though some of the shift is intrinsic when a player moves from a No. 1 option to a No. 3. His overall touches fell by 12 per 100 possessions, per SportVu. But the big difference was that his elbow touches fell from 23.3 per 100 possessions to 7.8. The portion of his shots that came on corner 3s jumped by 10 percent, and he got 169 fewer shots in the restricted area. Love didn't shoot the ball quite as well overall, but even so, with a usage rate down 7.3 percent, there was just no way he was going to be as productive. Love did his job. He ranked in the 92nd percentile at his position on unguarded catch-and-shoot plays, per Synergy, and also had the league's best rate on jumpers off the dribble.
Love struggled to find productive opportunities with his formerly pinpoint passing and that is a sign his role needs to be tweaked going forward. Love's playmaking ability, offensive rebounding and midrange shooting ability are too good to be marginalized. If LeBron James' minutes this season are reduced, then Cleveland needs Love to be on the floor when he is not so he can operate in his comfort zone for at least one or two shifts a game. Love's defensive RPM (plus-0.96) was in the 77th percentile and beyond elite defensive rebounding, most of his metrics are around the league median. He's no ace on that end, but with the right talent around him, Love won't sink a defense. Like several of his teammates, Love might be a bit limited early as he completes his recovery from the shoulder problem.
Timofey Mozgov
Position: Center
Experience: 5 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Solid post scorer and pick-and-roll finisher
+ Excellent rebounder on both ends
+ Good interior defender but can be schemed off the floor by small lineups
Analysis
It was quite a season for Timofey Mozgov, who was traded by lottery-bound Denver in midseason and wound up as arguably the second-best healthy player for Cleveland in the latter rounds of the playoffs. All along, he was the same player for the Cavaliers as he was for the Nuggets. Roster fit can do a lot for the perception of a player. Coming off two straight three-WARP seasons and entering a contract year in which he'll be paid $4.95 million, Mozgov has become an essential value for a Cleveland team increasingly laden with huge contracts. His free agency next summer will be interesting. Even with influx of cash on the way, can the Cavs afford to pay Mozgov fair market value when so many teams will be scrambling to spend cap space?
Before Mozgov hits the market however, there is a championship to chase. Mozgov had a knee scoped in July and his recovery kept him out of this summer's EuroBasket and likely will limit his use in preseason. It's probably not a big deal. Mozgov gave Cleveland a sorely-needed defensive anchor when he came over from Denver. His RPM on that end for the season was plus-3.43 (97th percentile) and he provided starter-worthy rim protection and shot blocking.
Mozgov is an excellent rebounder on both ends of the floor. He's versatile enough on the offensive end to score rolling to the basket but also operate effectively in the post. Mozgov is most definitely a finisher though, with some of the worst passing metrics in the league and a too-high turnover rate. There is nothing he really does that is elite. However, Mozgov is a plus performer in most of the key big-man categories and, as mentioned, his contract is a bargain.
Reserves
Tristan Thompson
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ One of league's top offensive rebounders
+ Has become efficient low-volume scorer
+ Athletic defender but lacks length to be plus paint protector
Analysis
The saga of Tristan Thompson's restricted free agency has dragged into training camp. At the beginning of October, Thompson and his agent allowed the deadline for taking Cleveland's qualifying offer to pass. To be sure, the qualifying offer would have represented an undervaluing of Thompson's talents. At the same time, the exact value of his contributions is a worthy topic for discussion. Thompson is really good at one thing: Offensive rebounding. Few are better, in fact. Last season he also finished effectively at the rim, though he again got shots blocked at a rate in the league's bottom 10 percent. He's tireless, active and quick, all attributes that serve him well in pursuit of his teammates' misses. He gets fouled a lot but even after switching his shooting hand a couple of years ago, Thompson remains a poor foul shooter.
Thompson's offensive role became more focused last season as he cut out the midrange jumper he had tried and failed to add to his game in previous seasons. The move into low-usage territory paid off in a career-high .580 true shooting percentage. Dave Blatt used Thompson as a post option less frequently than Byron Scott or Mike Brown did and while Thompson is okay on the low block in certain matchups, the selectivity was another boon to his efficiency. Thompson is a dynamic run-to-the-rim pick-and-roll finisher, one reason why Cleveland outscored opponents by 11.8 points per 48 minutes when he shared the floor with LeBron James, per NBA.com/stats. According to SportVu, Thompson shot 72 percent after receiving a pass from James in 2014-15, and Synergy put Thompson in the 98th percentile at his position as a pick-and-roll finisher. He's less accomplished on the defensive end, where his RPM last season again fell below the league median.
J.R. Smith
Position: Guard
Experience: 11 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Unconscious, streaky long-range shooter with ability to shoot against contests
+ Increasingly 3-point-oriented game now results in few drawn fouls
+ Still a good athlete but prone to frequent defensive lapses
Analysis
For a while, as J.R. Smith lingered on the free agent market, it looked like he might have made a terrible mistake in opting out of the last year of his deal, and thus leaving $6.4 million on the table. But he came out of it just fine, inking a two-year, $10 million deal to remain with the Cavaliers. Given the way his game evolved after he was traded to Cleveland from New York last season, it's entirely possible that Smith's best, or at least most effective, seasons lie ahead. Ever the wild card, Smith reined in his game and became a selective, off-the-ball player, with a usage rate that fell to 17.7 percent after the trade. His true shooting percentage rose to .565, the highest it's been since his heyday in Denver. Only once has Smith used a higher portion of his turnovers on 3-point shots, and when you focus just on the Cleveland part of his game log, he was more trey-happy than ever.
Converting those 3s at a rate safely above league average, Smith provided value-added floor spacing because of his ability to get those looks with a man in his face. According to Synergy, Smith averaged almost as many points per play on overall catch-and-shoot looks as he did when he was unguarded. And he ranked in the 96th percentile in jumpers off the dribble. The downside of the improved selectivity is that whereas he once drew fouls at an above-average rate, now he rarely gets to the line. The Cavs used Smith as a starter for the most part, but he returned to his familiar instant offense role in the postseason. Given his adventuresome tendencies on defense, the bench role always will be the one he's best suited for.
Mo Williams
Position: Guard
Experience: 12 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Streaky instant-offense point guard
+ Deadly pull-up jumper and effective kick-out passer
+ Limited to reserve role by relative lack of athleticism and poor defense
Analysis
In season split between teams suffering through non-playoff seasons in Minnesota and Charlotte, 12-year veteran Maurice Williams found himself repeatedly forced into a much bigger offensive role than he should be filling at this point of his career. Sometimes that happens on bad teams, especially when the injuries start to mount. Williams actually responded pretty well. His 4.7 WARP was a five-year high, and his single-season offensive RPM was his best since 2008-09, when he was one of LeBron James' primary running mates in Cleveland. James of course returned to the Cavaliers last year, and this summer Williams rejoined him after signing a two-year, $4.3 million deal. Clearly Williams is in the just-want-to-win phase of his career. Though last season's losing might not have been fun for him, his resurgence might well have earned him another chance to chase a ring in Cleveland.
Williams' usage rate of 25.7 percent was the highest of his long pro career. He also posted an assist rate very near his career high. Never before had Williams played so much with the ball in his hands. His true shooting percentage, while below average, wasn't much different than it's been over the past half-decade. His turnover rate actually fell from the previous two seasons, though it was still high. Williams was forced to make more plays off the dribble and while he's a good passer, his inability to finish in the paint makes him a poor option in that role. He drew more fouls last season but not enough to compensate for his inefficiency near the basket. According to SportVu, Williams' rate of .318 points per drive ranked in the bottom four percent of the league.
Williams will almost certainly return to more of a pure scoring role in Cleveland with plenty of spot-up opportunities. The latter isn't an ideal fit, as Williams is at his best pulling up off the dribble from midrange or kicking it to a shooter. That could make him an excellent fit alongside J.R. Smith on the Cavs' second unit, though defense there would be an issue. Williams is a poor defender who has never posted a positive defensive RPM. His steal rate is low for a point guard and falls each season, and his pick-and-roll defense annually ranks in the league's bottom quarter. By playoff time, you'd hope Williams' defense won't be a major issue. Early on though, with Kyrie Irving still recovering from knee surgery, the weakness might be exposed.
Anderson Varejao
Position: Center
Experience: 11 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ High-motor defender and rebounder
+ Below average rim protector
+ Efficient scorer with increasingly effective midrange shot
Analysis
Coming off an Achilles injury, Anderson Varejao enters his 12th NBA season with an immediate future as a high-level energy reserve. That might not be what the Cavs had in mind when they gave Varejao a three-year, $30 million extension last fall. Yet when Tristan Thompson returns to the fold, Cleveland will feature one of the league's deepest frontcourt rotations. If Thompson doesn't return, Varejao will be looked upon to fill the gaps in the hustle and offensive rebounding categories.
Some of Vareajo's indicators were down a bit before he was injured, though the slip came in the context of a revamped team struggling to find its footing. His offensive rebound rate was a little off and his defensive rebounding more so, though his success on contested boards was about the same. That suggests that any rebounding decline for Varejao was more a product of whom he shared the court with and Dave Blatt's preferences. Varejao's usage was up, as were his shooting percentages, but nevertheless, Varegajo's single-season RPM was minus-2.23. Going forward, you'd think his role would return to the ranks of the complementary.
Vareajo's defensive RPM slipped below zero as well, and the Cavs were a trainwreck on that end overall before he went down. He's a mobile, high-effort defender when healthy and stands up well one-on-one down low. But he's slow to close out on shooters -- making him an ill fit at 4 -- and a below-average rim protector. His reputation for drawing offensive fouls is warranted, but the difference between his defensive impact and that of Timofey Mozgov is why Varejao's role going forward is likely to be off the bench. How big that gig becomes largely will depend on how much, if any, mobility and explosion he lost because of the Achilles tear.
Richard Jefferson
Position: Forward
Experience: 14 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Experienced 3-and-D player
+ Elite catch-and-shoot skills with 3-point range
+ With declining athleticism, has become less dangerous off the dribble
Analysis
Contending teams can't find enough 3-and-D players, and Richard Jefferson is making a late-career tour of playoff teams in an effort to fulfill that exact job description. This season he'll be in Cleveland where the guy ahead of him on the depth chart at 3 is one LeBron James. While Jefferson will surely get run during shifts when James rests, it's more likely going to be how he does when sharing the court with James that determines his value.
As a spot-up shooter, Jefferson has evolved into one of the best. His 3-point percentages the past two seasons have been elite: 40.0 and 42.6 respectively. Just as crucial, his ranking on unguarded catch-and-shoot looks has also been elite. Among those with small forward as their base position, Jefferson ranked in the 94th percentile two years ago and the 99th percentile last season, per Synergy. When teams provide help and leave him open, he makes them pay consistently.
That's the most important job a player operating next to James can do, but Jefferson is still very good off the dribble. His foul-drawing rate is a plus, though his free-throw shooting is not. While his finishing rate at the rim is solid, his per-drive metrics are declining. That suggests that more and more, Jefferson will morph into a shooting specialist.
The defense part of the equation may be his biggest issue as his offensive repertoire shrinks. Jefferson has been negative in single-season defensive RPM for five straight seasons. Last season he was above the league median on the defensive glass but is a below-average rebounder overall. Jefferson competes as an on-ball defender but was brutalized against post players last season.
Matthew Dellavedova
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ High-effort, versatile combo guard
+ Good passer, spot-up shooter and pesky defender
+ Struggles to score inside arc and make plays for himself
Analysis
Matthew Dellavedova earned a lot of admirers with his big-shot making during the playoffs and rugged defense on Golden State star Stephen Curry during the Finals. Alas, his carriage turned back into a pumpkin at midnight -- Pacific Coast Time -- as Curry and the Warriors won the championship. Dellavedova's ensuing restricted free agency proved to be disappointing, and he signed a one-year deal to return to the Cavs. With Kyrie Irving still recovering, Dellavedova should see meaningful minutes early in the season. But with Mo Williams on board, it's possible Dellavedova falls out of the rotation entirely by the end of the calendar year.
As end-of-the-bench players go, Dellavedova is ideal. He's a strong, max-effort guard who can play and guard either backcourt position. His passing is productive, mostly due to his plus-size and solid court vision. However, Dellavedova isn't going to lose a lot of guys off the dribble and he struggles mightily when he gets into the paint. His .342 points per drive last season rated in the 5th percentile, per SportVu, and that was an improvement over the season before. His catch-and-shoot game is his top offensive attribute. He hit 41 percent from deep last season and was in the upper quadrant of the league on catch-and-shoot looks. His defensive impact stems largely from his effort and willingness to get physical. His defensive RPMs as a pro have been better than average both seasons, but far from elite. One thing to watch: Per Synergy, Dellavedova allowed the highest per-play figure on post-ups in the league last season.
James Jones
Position: Forward
Experience: 12 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Long-range sharpshooter with exceptional accuracy and range
+ Adds little beyond floor spacing on offense
+ Defensive indicators in decline
Analysis
It's very tempting to cut-and-paste analysis of James Jones from past seasons because there is so little to say about him and so little variance in his year-to-year traits. Jones is a dead-eye long-range shooter with the length to get off looks against late close-outs. You can expect about 75 percent of the possessions he uses to be 3-point shots and you can expect him to use about 15 percent of his club's possessions while he's on the floor. His accuracy on 3s is more variable, but is most likely going to come in at 40-plus percent. That threat spaces the floor and keeps his offensive RPM playable. His overall impact is limited by a lack of value-added skills, a problem that keeps getting worse. Jones' defensive rebounding was down last season and his defensive RPM was in the red for the fourth straight season. He remains, as always, a small-role specialist.
Joe Harris
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Excellent catch-and-shoot skills and legit 3-point range
+ Some innate playmaking ability but turned the ball over too frequently as a rookie
+ Bottom-of-the-barrel defender as a first-year player
Analysis
In certain sports, being told you're bound for Canton is a life-changing conversation. In the NBA, it means you're headed to the D-League. Not as exciting to be sure, but for Joe Harris, getting in 15 games for the Canton Charge at least gave him a chance to keep the not spot-up shooting aspects of his game from slipping into atrophy. He was a standout for the Charge during the D-League playoffs, averaging 19.8 points and eight rebounds while shooting 60.4 percent from the floor and 40.9 percent from the 3-point line. No, he's not likely to ever post numbers like that in the NBA. But Harris' time in the developmental circuit did show that he's got more wiggle in his game than he was allowed to demonstrate in Cleveland.
Harris' 14 percent usage rate in 51 games for the Cavs was about 10 percent less than what he put up for Canton. Nearly 55 percent of his possessions terminated in 3-point shots and his 36.9 accuracy from deep was better than league average. Those are good pegs for a future 3-and-D player in the league. Still, he's a little undersized to be a true combo wing, with limited wingspan and a poor rebounding projection. He made plays for others at times, but often at the cost of frequent turnovers. His defensive indicators were frightening: He was in the league's bottom 1 percent per-play on defense overall, per Synergy. SportVu had him in the 5th percentile in defending shots. His defensive RPM was minus-3.59. Harris was a second-round guy, so he has to develop some defensive acumen, and fast, or he won't stick on a team vying for a title. The Cavs have other guys that can shoot.
Sasha Kaun
Position: Center
Experience: Rookie
2008 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Super-efficient interior scorer
+ Bull-dozing style of post offense with ability to score with both hands
+ Good paint protector and shot blocker who struggles in space
Analysis
Now 30, former Kansas center Sasha Kaun returns stateside to try to stick as the Cavs' third-string center. In Europe, Kaun was a super-efficient, if low-volume, interior scorer. According to basketball-reference.com, he shot 70 percent from the floor in more than 2,500 minutes for CSKA Moscow over the past six years. According to Synergy, last season he ranked in the 99th percentile as a scorer on a per-play basis, and in the 96th percentile as both a post player and a cutter. That is a skill set that will play well next to LeBron James. Kaun's post game consists largely of lowering a shoulder and trying to bull his way as close to the hoop as possible, but he does shoot with both hands. Kaun should be a plus shot-blocker and his overseas defensive metrics were very good, especially against post-ups. However, you don't want leave him on an island very far from the basket.