Some College Football Playoff contenders have more margin for error
— -- This is the final week of games before the College Football Playoff selection committee reveals its first ranking Nov. 3. It's only the first of six rankings, though, so there are still plenty of opportunities for teams to play their way in or stumble out.
While there is little margin for error for every team with playoff aspirations, remember that three of the four teams last season each had one loss by the end of October. Not everyone is facing a must-win scenario, and it's not as black and white as their win-loss records might indicate.
Who could afford a loss
Ohio State: The Buckeyes could win their next three games, lose to Michigan on the road and finish as a one-loss conference champ. There's no shame in losing on the road to a ranked opponent, and the selection committee does factor in rivalry games.
"I think everybody in that room understands rivalry games are special, but there are many, many rivalry games in today's college football," selection committee chair Jeff Long said last year before the final week of the regular season. "We're certainly aware of that. We certainly discuss the fact that it's a rivalry game, and we do know that there have been a number of unanticipated outcomes in rivalry games."
LSU: The Tigers still have road trips to Alabama and Ole Miss, the only two games on their schedule that ESPN's Football Power Index do not favor them to win. It's a stretch, but LSU could even lose two games and still be the SEC champ. More likely, LSU can stumble once and get in.
Undefeated Big 12 teams: TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State all still have to play one another in November, but if the Big 12 champ's only loss is to a ranked opponent, it would still be in the discussion. Baylor's strength of schedule might be its biggest opponent -- it was a strong source of debate last season -- but what if other league champs have two losses? Different year, different debate.
American Athletic Conference leaders: The cold, hard truth is that Group of 5 teams might never make the semifinals because of their perceived strength of schedule, but the highest-ranked conference champion is guaranteed a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl. Temple, Houston and Memphis are all undefeated front-runners, and the selection committee set a precedent last year that a loss wouldn't rule anyone out when it chose a two-loss Boise State team.
Clemson: It's hard to digest a scenario in which Clemson loses to an unranked NC State, Wake Forest or South Carolina and still makes the playoff, but any one-loss conference champion would still be considered by the committee. The one team Clemson can't lose to is Florida State, because then the Seminoles would win the head-to-head tiebreaker and represent the Atlantic Division in the ACC title game.
Cause for debate
Stanford: It's possible Stanford loses to Notre Dame but goes undefeated in the Pac-12 and wins the conference championship. The committee would have to weigh a two-loss conference champion against a head-to-head loss to Notre Dame, assuming the Irish win out in this scenario.
Michigan State: What if the Spartans finish in a three-way tie with Ohio State and Michigan, all having lost to one another? Michigan State would have a road win over Michigan, and it's only loss would have been to the Buckeyes.
Florida: ESPN's FPI gives the Gators a 70 percent chance to win the SEC East, but they already have a loss at LSU, and Saturday's game against Georgia is their toughest remaining game, according to FPI research. Florida State, though, is the only ranked opponent left on their schedule. The Gators are in this category because they could lose to Georgia and still win the SEC East, giving the committee another two-loss champ to consider.
Utah: The Utes can still win the Pac-12 South, even with another loss, though they'd need some help. If they do that and upset Stanford in the conference championship game, they'll be right back in the conversation.
No margin for error
Notre Dame: A close road loss to Clemson certainly isn't going to keep the Irish out of the playoff, but another loss would, especially if it's to anyone other than Stanford. Even that would be nearly impossible to overcome because of the significance of winning a conference championship game, which Notre Dame does not have.
Alabama: The Tide already have a home loss to Ole Miss, which owns the head-to-head tiebreaker scenario. ESPN's FPI favors Alabama to win each of its remaining games, and that's what it will have to do to finish as a one-loss SEC champ, the best-case scenario for the Tide.
Ole Miss: With two losses, including the loss to Memphis, the Rebels need some serious help to get back into the conversation, but they can still win the SEC West. If Ole Miss wins out and wins the SEC, there's a strong chance the entire league could be left out of the top four.
Florida State: If -- big if -- the Seminoles can win at Clemson, beat Florida and win the ACC title, they would have played their way back into the debate as a one-loss conference champion. One more loss, though, and they're toast.
Michigan: The Wolverines are a long shot with two losses, but if they can win out and Ohio State beats Michigan State, it would force a three-way tie in the East Division. Michigan can still win the Big Ten title, but the committee would have to forgive losses to Utah and Michigan State.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes haven't gotten much credit for their unblemished record, and that's unlikely to change unless they win the West and put on a good show in the Big Ten title game. Their best wins are over Wisconsin and Northwestern, two teams no longer ranked, and No. 23 Pitt. They would need a highly-ranked opponent in the Big Ten title game to boost their résumé.
Oklahoma: The Sooners have already lost to an unranked Texas team. That in itself is going to be difficult to overcome, so one more loss would be a dagger.