Why Dragic is worth overpaying
— -- The Phoenix Suns and star point guard Goran Dragic are headed for a messy divorce after Dragic's representatives announced that he would not re-sign with Phoenix after the season. He effectively gave the Suns an ultimatum: Trade me or I'm leaving.
As ESPN's Marc Stein reported, it is an unceremonious departure for Dragic, who arguably has been the face of the franchise since Steve Nash was traded to the Lakers in 2012.
How did Dragic and the Suns, who enjoyed a surprising rebirth in 2013-14 with Dragic as their star, come to this? And is he worth the eventual lucrative free-agent payday he's seeking? ESPN Insiders Amin Elhassan and Kevin Pelton break it down.
Elhassan: Creating leverage
Despite the Suns' relative success running three-point-guard lineups this season, it was very apparent that Dragic was unhappy about the arrangement. While he was the primary ball handler for much of last season, this season saw him relegated to sitting in the corner and waiting for the play to develop and for the ball to find its way to him, a proposition that became more and more of a rarity. In fact, Dragic's usage rate plummeted from almost 25 percent when he's the sole point guard on the floor to 17 percent when sharing the floor with Isaiah Thomas and Eric Bledsoe.
Frustration manifested on defense, as well. As the de facto "small forward" in Phoenix's three-point-guard lineup, Dragic was forced to defend bigger and bigger opponents, a task that took its toll on him physically, both in terms of energy expended fighting larger players and the abuse on his body. With both Bledsoe and Thomas signed long term, the odds were significantly worse the team would find a way to clean up the roster imbalance and reward him with the long-term, lucrative deal he'll be seeking this summer when he's expected to opt out of the last year of his current contract (due $7.5 million). This will be the last major contract of Dragic's career, so securing that type of compensation is of high priority for the former second-round draft selection.
Dragic's representatives, agents Bill Duffy and Rade Filipovic, are using the threat-of-flight leverage to make the change they want to see in Phoenix (namely a return to primary ballhandling duties for Dragic). By demanding a trade, and offering a short list of the Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks or Miami Heat as desired landing spots, Duffy and Filipovic basically have painted the Suns into a corner.
None of those teams have the type of asset stockpile to acquire Dragic straight up, and likely don't even have enough to participate in a three-way deal. The Heat likely will not be able to send a first-round pick until 2017; the Knicks won't be able to send a pick until 2018; and the Lakers won't be able to send their own pick until 2019 at the earliest (although they do have the Rockets' 2015 first-rounder to dangle). Thus, any trade with those "preferred" teams would net the Suns very little.
What Duffy has been able to do is create a demand on the market for Dragic now, rather than waiting for free agency, with the intent to drive up the trade cost to acquire him, thus escalating the commitment to retain his services this summer. The message is clear: If you intend to trade for Dragic, be prepared to pay him.
Though posed as a possible landing place early on, Dragic has clearly stated he doesn't want to go to Houston, so a trade to the Rockets would be a massive gamble on Houston general manager Daryl Morey's part. The Indiana Pacers also have expressed interest in acquiring Dragic, as have the Sacramento Kings and Boston Celtics.
The flip side of this coin is that the Suns realize there is no deal that even approaches approximate value for Dragic. Duffy has managed to leverage the situation to force someone to make a premature promise to compensate Dragic heavily this offseason.
Pelton: Dragic is worth the money
After news of Dragic's desire to be traded broke Tuesday night, I tweeted "buyer beware," noting that Dragic will be 29 by the time he becomes a free agent this summer, and his 2013-14 performance looks suspiciously fluky compared to the rest of his career. But a funny thing happened when I went to find evidence for my argument: It turns out I was completely wrong, at least about whether Dragic's return to earth is better explained by regression or the Suns' glut of point guards.
Part of my logic was that relatively few of Dragic's minutes have come with Thomas; he mostly has played with Bledsoe, the same starting lineup as last season. This is true; according to NBAwowy.com, nearly two-thirds of Dragic's minutes have come next to Bledsoe with Thomas on the bench. However, that is a change from last season. Because of Bledsoe's knee surgery and coach Jeff Hornacek's ability to offset the minutes of the two point guards he then had on the roster, Dragic played more than twice as many minutes with Bledsoe on the bench as on the court, according to NBA.com/Stats.
Moreover, the difference between Dragic's performance with and without Bledsoe is staggering. Basically, Dragic's All-NBA nod can be attributed entirely to how he performed as Phoenix's lone point guard. Check out a comparison of his numbers by backcourt:
Dragic 2013-14 Performance
With the ball in his hands more frequently, Dragic created more of his own offense and set up teammates more frequently. Yet he also defied the typical relationship between usage and efficiency by improving his true shooting percentage dramatically as well. When Bledsoe was on the court with him, Dragic was about an average player. (League average for win percentage, the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player [WARP] metric, is .500.) With Bledsoe on the bench, Dragic had the league's 11th-best winning percentage.
This season, that issue has been exacerbated by Thomas' presence. It's no longer possible for Hornacek to stagger minutes so only one point guard is on the court at a time -- Dragic has played barely 100 minutes all season without either Bledsoe or Thomas alongside him, per NBAwowy.com.
Dragic 2014-15 Performance
Dragic has played about the same with Bledsoe as he did last season. But next to Thomas, a more ball-dominant point guard, Dragic's per-minute ratings drop to replacement level. He's been relegated to spotting up, sending his usage rate plummeting -- particularly with all three point guards on the court together. In the few opportunities Dragic has had the point all to himself, he's generally performed like last season, with the exception of a small-sample spike in his turnover rate. Dragic's per-36 averages as the lone point have been All-Star-caliber. Per Basketball-Reference.com, just three players are averaging at least 20.0 points and 7.0 assists per 36 minutes this season: Stephen Curry, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook.
Whatever team acquires Dragic can't expect this level of performance for the life of his next contract. His age is still a concern. Players rated as similar by my SCHOENE projection system saw their WARP totals drop by more than 20 percent between their age-29 and age-30 seasons. A four-year deal for the maximum salary would likely prove an overpay, even with the cap due to rise dramatically.
The right fit also will be crucial. Dragic won't be able to dominate the ball playing next to Kobe Bryant with the Lakers or in the Knicks' triangle offense, creating some of the same issues produced by the Suns' current glut of point guards. But if Dragic gets a chance to play primarily with the ball, the rest of the league should beware.