Fallica and Coughlin's best Week 1 CFB bets
— -- After an impressive 2015 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay are back. Every week during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games and, as a bonus, give one pick apiece free of charge.
2015 season record:
Fallica:?53-40-3 ATS (55.2 percent)
Coughlin:?38-29-3 ATS (54.3 percent)
2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)
Note: Against the spread (ATS) and total picks are in bold. Odds are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Oklahoma Sooners (-11.5) vs.? Houston Cougars
Over/under: 68
Fallica:? The Football Power Index sees a ton of value here, expecting a 19-point win for Oklahoma. That is a sizable difference from the Vegas line, and I have to simply trust our power ratings here. I also think all of the intangibles favor OU here. With talk of past preseason disappointments, along with hearing about Houston both potentially joining the Big 12 and being ready for a stage like this, Houston has become a trendy College Football Playoff pick.
Do you think Bob Stoops and his staff have been drilling those things into the minds of the Oklahoma players? Yeah, I do too. Take into account that the Sooners have Ohio State and a trip to TCU within the first four games of the year, and it's easy to see how the Cougars will have Oklahoma's full attention. In looking back at last year, Houston kind of had a perfect storm: It caught Louisville early in the year when the Cards' QB situation was a mess, it had a couple of home comeback wins and held a huge emotional edge over Florida State in their bowl game.
The Cougars lost a larger number of key contributors than one may realize. I'd be surprised if this was close in the fourth quarter.
ATS pick: Oklahoma 38, Houston 20 (Confidence 8/10)
Coughlin:?This is my favorite matchup of experienced quarterbacks in the opening weekend. Not to put any more pressure on Cougars QB Greg Ward Jr., but no other team in the country has more to lose than Houston. If it falls to the Sooners, they won't get talked about until November. I'm really interested to see the development of Sooners QB Baker Mayfield without his No. 1 target, Sterling Shepard, and how well he adapts without Shepard is the biggest determining factor in whether or not Oklahoma has a successful season.
We know how good Sooners RB Samaje Perine is, as he needs only 1,054 rushing yards to become No. 1 on the all-time Oklahoma rushing list; he starts the season in 10th. Just think about some of the names on that list. After the season Houston had last year, you can bet that Tom Herman's crew has the full attention of Mike and Bob Stoops too. Houston led the country in takeaways, and they are going to have to create numerous turnovers to hang around in this game. I see both offenses having big days and see a bunch of points being scored. Take the over.
Pick: Oklahoma 49, Houston 24 (over the total of 68 points)
UCLA Bruins ( 3) at Texas A&M Aggies
Fallica: I think the UCLA defense has a chance to be very good this season, and the Bruins have a huge edge in the QB position in this matchup. The only big question is whether or not the UCLA offensive line can hold its own against Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. I hear Josh Rosen loves the new offensive scheme -- note that former offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone is now at Texas A&M -- and I don't think there will be a drop-off at all at the RB position with Texas native Soso Jamabo replacing Paul Perkins.
The last time we saw Trevor Knight, he was 5-of-16 with an interception as the Sooners nearly coughed up a huge lead last year vs TCU, when Baker Mayfield was sidelined with a concussion. As big as the perception that Kyle Field is a big home field advantage is, keep in mind that the Aggies are 1-6 there vs. ranked opponents under Kevin Sumlin. I think the Bruins go into College Station, win and set themselves up for a run at the College Football Playoff.
ATS pick: UCLA 28, Texas A&M 24 (Confidence 8/10)
Coughlin: My partner, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, on the Behind The Bets: The College Years podcast last week, brought up the question of who among all of the SEC Coaches is under the most pressure in Week 1. Many have answered with Les Miles, which I can't argue with, but I'd have to say it's Aggies' head coach Kevin Sumlin. With that feeling, I see A&M coming out with a huge effort at home in front of one of the best home crowds in the country. To hear defensive coordinator John Chavis this past week at his press conference saying, "We've got the best pair of DEs in the country ... wouldn't trade them for anyone else," makes me think that that he feels more confident in this defense than he did last year.
That means something to me because I think "Chief" is the best at what he does in the country. The combination of defensive pressure and the life of the 12th man, it seems like it'll be too much for Sophomore QB Josh Rosen. The trend of coaches facing the school they left in Week 1 continues with this game, as Aggies offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone faces the Bruins. I see a big day for the A&M wide receivers -- gig 'em and lay the 3 points.
ATS pick: Texas A&M 31, UCLA 23
USC Trojans ( 11.5) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Fallica: I am well aware of the success that Nick Saban has had at Alabama in season openers -- for those who aren't, he's 9-0, winning each of them by double figures (by an average margin of victory of 27.3 PPG). So why am I so hesitant now to lay the 11.5? I guess the uncertainty at QB for the Tide has me a little concerned, at least right off the bat. If you look back at 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2015 -- the four previous times the Tide started with a first-year QB under Saban -- those QBs combined for three TDs and six INTs, along with six total sacks. While they went on to have a great season each time, none of those teams were great off the bat. Three of those season openers were against Power 5 teams, and two of them were a pair of 10-point wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia, to go along with the 18-point win over Wisconsin last year.
I think the Crimson Tide will play it fairly safe on offense and USC has enough skill on both sides of the ball, despite having a new starter of its own, to hang around. The FPI calls for Alabama by five, so it too thinks this one could be closer than most might think.
ATS pick: Alabama 31, USC 21 (Confidence 6/10)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5) vs. Texas Longhorns
Over/under: 60
Coughlin: Notre Dame is playing a true road game in a season opener for the first time since 2006 -- something only the Irish could pull off. Maybe it's also the reason they haven't won a national title outright since 1989. The Fighting Irish are one of five teams in the country to return two QBs that beat a Power 5 team last year. Head coach Brian Kelly has said Malik Zaire and DeShone Kizer will both play in this game, which I love, and here's why; both guys throw the ball accurately, both guys have great field presence and awareness and both guys have playmaking ability, if things break down. There also isn't a better coach to handle multiple QBs, at least to me, than Brian Kelly. I don't think this will be an issue with the team chemistry either, because when both guys are out there, they will be trying to be better than the other guys and, last I checked, athletes are best when they are competing... and not transferring.
With all that said, they are going to get all they can handle from a hungry and energized Longhorn squad. I see Texas having some issues with their QB play and see the edge Notre Dame has at the position as the difference in a low-scoring game. Take the under.
The pick: Notre Dame 20, Texas 13 (under the total of 60 points)
North Carolina Tar Heels ( 3) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Fallica: I like the Tar Heels in this game. Yes, Nick Chubb is ready to go, but the Georgia QB situation scares me. We kind of know what we have with Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey, so will Jacob Eason be ready to play and match UNC point-for-point in his first college game? The Bulldogs also have some concerns on the front seven and that's not good, as UNC possesses one of the more underrated backs in the nation in Elijah Hood, a deep WR corps and QB Mitch Trubisky.
I know UNC couldn't stop Baylor's running game in the bowl game last year, but I'm willing to think the Tar Heels will use that as a motivation this week, knowing they must improve vs. one of the best backs in the country. Larry Fedora has had some early-season struggles in Chapel Hill, but I get the sense that this game might be different. I trust the UNC offense more than any other unit on the field here.
ATS pick: North Carolina 36, Georgia 27 (Confidence 7/10)
Fordham Rams ( 26.5) vs. Navy Midshipmen
Coughlin: I know what you're saying. Week 1 and you're picking Fordham? Really?
Yes, I am serious. The Rams come into this game with first year Head coach Andrew Breiner, but he is in his fifth year on the Fordham staff after serving as the passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach in his first four years. Why does this matter? Under Breiner's tutelage, the Fordham offense has ranked at the top of the NCAA FCS in each of the past four years. They also have junior running back Chase Edmonds, the 2016 Patriot League Preseason Offensive Player of the Year. And, in what might be the most important factor, they have senior quarterback Kevin Anderson, who threw for 3,183 yards and 32 TDs last year. The Rams have the firepower to stay within striking distance in this game, and Navy returns only one starter on offense, which hopefully means the Midshipmen will be a little rusty with the ball in their hands. Take the Rams to cover.
ATS pick: Navy 42, Fordham 21
Texas State Bobcats ( 21) at Ohio Bobcats
Fallica: The Everett Withers era begins in San Marcos, and that alone should give a boost to a program that took a step back last year, going 3-9 and just 2-9 vs. the number. There are a couple of reasons to like Texas State here; QB Tyler Jones returns, and the defense can't help but be better with Withers on the sideline. Withers has seen a lot of turnover on the team for a variety of reasons, so the roster numbers are a bit low. That's not an entirely bad thing, as it means that starters could be playing a lot longer, even if they're well behind. Ohio is breaking in an almost entirely new secondary, and it could be susceptible to some big plays. FPI projects this to be a 13-point win for Ohio, so I'll put some faith in our power ratings and show some love for the underdog.
ATS pick: Ohio 40, Texas State 24 (Confidence 5/10)