Fantasy 32: Key Week 4 tips on every team
— -- Below are 32 notes covering each of the NFL's 32 teams from a fantasy perspective. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for Week 4. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Throughout this piece, I'll be referencing "OTD." OTD stands for opportunity-adjusted touchdowns. It is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. For example, if a player has an OTD of 3.0, it means that a league average player who saw the same number of targets in the same area of the field would have scored three touchdowns.
Atlanta Falcons - As sell-high opportunities go, they don't get much clearer than Atlanta right now. The Falcons put up 24 points on Tampa Bay, 35 on Oakland and 45 on New Orleans. Matt Ryan is the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy. Tevin Coleman is coming off a three-touchdown game and sits fifth among running backs in fantasy points despite playing second fiddle to Devonta Freeman. Speaking of which, the reigning top-scoring fantasy back sits 12th at the position in fantasy points after eclipsing 200 yards from scrimmage against the Saints. As great as all of that sounds, it's unsustainable, especially when considering the Falcons' next three opponents: Carolina, Denver and Seattle. Ouch. The Falcons have Julio Jones and a good running back duo, but this offense isn't much better than the mediocre unit from 2015. Expect a major drop in production as the competition gets tougher.
Baltimore Ravens - Steve Smith Sr. has yet to find the end zone this season, but his usage suggests a big game is right around the corner. Smith caught eight of 11 targets for 87 yards in Week 3 and is enjoying a team-high 22 percent target share so far this season. Mike Wallace might be getting the headlines (and touchdowns), but Smith is Joe Flacco's top target. On the negative side, Smith has yet to see a target while within 20 yards of the goal line. He'll need to generate more work near the end zone or he simply won't be able to push into the WR3 discussion.
Carolina Panthers - Jonathan Stewart missed the Panthers' Week 3 game with a hamstring injury, which gave us a look at the team's recipe for replacing its lead back. Cameron Artis-Payne (27 snaps) clearly benefited the most, posting 58 yards on 13 touches against a tough Vikings defense. True to form, Fozzy Whittaker (34 snaps) maintained a change-of-pace role, posting 56 yards on 10 touches. Mike Tolbert (17 snaps) was used sparingly and racked up 19 yards on four touches. Should Stewart miss any additional time, Artis-Payne is the man you want in standard leagues, and Whittaker (who was targeted six times) is the slightly better play in PPR.
San Francisco 49ers - Jeremy Kerley paced the 49ers with five targets in Week 3 and was also tops on the team with 11 in Week 1. Kerley's 23 percent target share is significant, but it hasn't allowed much fantasy production. Kerley has caught 12 of his 22 targets for 114 yards and no touchdowns, and is an undersized target who simply doesn't get much work near the goal line. He failed to catch his only end zone target this year and has no other looks within 15 yards of the end zone. Kerley is nothing more than a desperation flex in PPR leagues.
