Fantasy football cheat sheet: Start, sit and more tips for Week 15
— -- Anyone with Thomas Rawls or Todd Gurley starting on their playoff rosters this week couldn't have been pleased with the way the Seattle-Los Angelees game went on Thursday night. Rawls had nowhere to run all night and settled for 34 yards on 21 carries. Gurley wasn't much better, carrying 14 times for 38 yards in a game Seattle won 24-3.
Looking closer at the matchup, however, it was pretty clear entering Thursday that Rawls and Gurley would have a difficult time finding running room in a physical type of game with two struggling offenses.
We're well past the time of year when players should earn spots in your lineup based on name recognition. It's the fantasy playoffs, and the matchups and recent production matter more than ever before. Just ask anyone who waited 15 weeks for Gurley to get going.
Think about this as you set your lineups this week, and be sure to take advantage of our Roster Advisor tool to get an edge on your opponents. And for those taking part in the Eliminator Challenge, you can get an edge here, too, with the Survivor Guide.
Our weekly ESPN Insider cheat sheet provides a rundown of the greatest hits from all of our Insider fantasy football content. In this file, you'll find answers to the top questions of the week, along with injury updates, matchup advantages and wild-card plays from Eric Karabell, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay and Al Zeidenfeld. It's all the best tips, distilled into one handy file.
Here's what our experts are saying about Week 15:
Top tips
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
In a week when many top quarterbacks are faced with difficult matchups -- Matthew Stafford at the New York Giants, Drew Brees at the Arizona Cardinals, Tom Brady at the Denver Broncos -- there is Ryan at home against San Francisco, the worst defense in the league.
"It's a tough slate this week for a few reasons. First, the weather outside is frightful, with a lot of bad-weather games involving passing attacks on which we would usually want to focus our attention," writes Al Zeidenfeld. "Second, the high-priced quarterbacks are either those with drastic home/road numbers and in the wrong side of that split, or in matchups that limit upside and accentuate floor games (looking at you, Andrew Luck).
"This leaves us with Matt Ryan vs. the 49ers at home, in a dome, against a favorable matchup and playing up in pace. Ryan has posted only three games above 25 DraftKings points in 2016, but has held a solid floor from week to week, throwing at least one touchdown in every game and not dipping below 237 yards in any outing. It's not sexy -- and I would suggest looking for a cheaper option for cash games -- but wouldn't fault you for going with Ryan, as there's enough value elsewhere on the slate to make it worthwhile."
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Bowen did a great job breaking down why Hill has had so much success in recent weeks -- see: high-percentage targets and speed after the catch -- and those factors are in play this week against the struggling Tennessee defense.
"Hill owners should love the matchup this week versus the Titans in the fantasy playoffs," Bowen writes. "Tennessee is giving up an average of 25.8 points a game to opposing receivers -- and that ranks dead last in the NFL.
"Plus, the Titans can stop the running game. This season, the Titans' defense ranks fifth overall against opposing running backs (giving up an average of 13.0 points per game). Based on those numbers, owners should expect the Chiefs to carry a very pass-heavy game plan to the stadium on Sunday."
Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders
Murray's heavy workload is a great fit this week against a San Diego defense that in the bottom third of the league against the run. Zeidenfeld explains.
"As the season has worn on, the Raiders have turned more and more to Murray to handle the load many thought would be his from Week 1. Since Week 7, Murray has logged 20 or more touches in five of the seven games the Raiders have played, posted double-digit fantasy points in each, and topped 20 DraftKings points three times. I look for volume, and more specifically exploitable volume, and Murray provides just that this week against a Chargers run defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs on the season."
Playing the matchups
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Like his quarterback Matt Ryan, Freeman benefits from a dream matchup (vs. San Francisco) in ideal conditions (dome). Tristan H. Cockcroft writes that Freeman's matchup is the most favorable among running backs this week.
"His one fantasy point in Week 14 was his worst output in his 26 career NFL starts, but there's reason to believe in a significant rebound from him on Sunday," explains Cockcroft. 'Running backs against the San Francisco 49ers' is 2016's automatic among matchups, as five different running backs have managed at least 28 fantasy points against them -- that's five out of the 19 at the position all season. Two of them have come in the past two weeks, as Jordan Howard (Week 13) and Bilal Powell (Week 14) each had 29. Freeman, meanwhile, was simply not an essential part of the Falcons' game plan in Week 14 in a game that they led by three touchdowns midway through the second quarter. Expect him to be more heavily involved in this one, though Tevin Coleman owners can be encouraged enough by his 16-point Week 14 that he's a low-end RB2 consideration in his own right."
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Bryant hauled in just one of nine targets and finished with a shockingly low 10 yards receiving in the loss to the Giants, but Mike Clay likes his chances of bouncing back this week against Tampa Bay's vulnerable secondary.
"Bryant had a rough outing against Janoris Jenkins last week, but he is a strong candidate to rebound against the rookie Vernon Hargreaves III this week," Clay writes. "Although this seems like a logical scenario for the Buccaneers to shadow Bryant, Brent Grimes simply has not been asked to play that role this season. This means Bryant will run roughly half his routes against Hargreaves, who has been heavily targeted and has struggled in coverage this season. Bryant will see Grimes on one-quarter of his routes and Elliott on the other 25 percent."
Michael Crabtree and Seth Roberts, WRs, Oakland Raiders
Crabtree has six games of at least 10 targets and a total of seven touchdowns on the season. Roberts has chipped in with five scores through the air. Both of them have a good chance to produce on Sunday against San Diego, and Clay explains why.
"As we'll get to in a moment, I'm projecting that Casey Hayward will shadow Amari Cooper this week," he writes. "Assuming that's the case, Crabtree will be set up with an especially nice matchup against San Diego's No. 2 corner. Whom that is will depend on the status of Craig Mager (elbow), but it won't necessarily matter, because Crabtree is a clearly superior player to Trevor Williams and Trovon Reed. Crabtree was limited to three receptions for 47 yards in the first meeting between the teams, but did score a touchdown and happened to run two-thirds of his routes against Hayward, who, at that point, was a stay-at-home corner. Roberts, meanwhile, lines up in the slot on 81 percent of his routes, which means he'll see either Mager or Williams.
Injury impact
Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Peterson, out since Week 2 due to a torn meniscus, says he's " ready to roll" after a week of practice and is expected to play in Sunday's home game against Indianapolis. If Peterson is indeed activated from the IR, it serves as a blow to the fantasy value of Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata.
Michael Thomas, WR, and Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
Thomas and Ingram are both healthy enough where they're not even on the injury list for this week's game at Arizona. Ingram missed last week's game due to a bruised foot, while Ingram has been playing through knee and toe injuries.
Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears
Wilson has fractured his left foot for the third time since 2015, Bears coach John Fox announced on Friday. That puts a little more pressure on Alshon Jeffery to come up big in his first game back from suspension.
Lottery tickets
Taylor Gabriel, WR, Atlanta Falcons and Dontrelle Inman, WR, San Diego Chargers
Injuries have opened the door for some lesser name receivers to become huge parts of the fantasy landscape in the most important time of the season.
"Everyone is hurt: Well, perhaps not everyone, but last Sunday morning the big story to watch involved Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones, dealing with a sprained toe. He did not play," Eric Karabell explains. "He will not play this week as well and if you're hoping for Week 16, honestly, we have no idea. I doubt the Falcons do, either.
"Now we again look to Taylor Gabriel in this outstanding matchup against the 49ers, but really this seems like a fine week to go out and find a relevant wide receiver sitting there on free agency. For example, the Chargers' Dontrelle Inman is scoring touchdowns every week and his matchup is nice (vs. Oakland). He's out there. Go get him."
J.J. Nelson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The departure of Michael Floyd opens up an opportunity for Nelson, and Zeidenfeld explains how Nelson could be impacted in the first game of the post-Floyd era -- a home game against the Saints.
"Floyd played 92 percent of the Cardinals' offensive snaps in Week 13, 99 percent of the snaps in Week 14, and he was cut this week in the lead-up to Week 15 due to an arrest on a DUI charge," he writes. "This opens up a massive volume opportunity for Nelson, as his snap count will rise (45 percent in Week 13 and 31 percent Week 14), possibly as high as 85 percent this week against the Saints."
Ladarius Green, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Green has been targeted 20 times the last three weeks, hauling in half of them, and he reached the end zone two weeks ago for the first time in five games this season. Zeidenfeld likes his chances of producing against Cincinnati.
"The Bengals' defense has seen much improvement during the past six weeks, but they're still the most giving team in the league when it comes to fantasy production to tight ends. Green looks to exploit that weakness this week. In spite of the fact that Green is playing on a limited number of snaps (48 and 33 percent the past two weeks), he's leading the league in routes run per snap and target percentage on routes run.
"Basically, when Green is on the field, the Steelers are looking to get the ball to him 33 percent of the time. He's a huge target, has the trust of his quarterback and offensive coordinator, and has a great matchup to target this week, with a reasonably low price tag."
Big question of the week
How productive will Adrian Peterson be in his first game back?
Peterson, one of the top rated fantasy backs in the league when the season started, intends to play against the Colts. But how well will he do? Karabell writes that fantasy owners shouldn't get overly excited about Peterson's prospects of a big game.
"Several things immediately jump to mind here," Karabell writes. "Yes, Peterson is a remarkable athlete. He was the first running back off the board in ESPN average live drafts this season (and No. 3 overall) because of his incredible run of statistical consistency, despite advancing age. He commands incredible and unusual volume when compared to the touches most RBs receive, and as he's shown in the past, when he gets hurt he's a freakishly quick healer. This is a gifted football player, and I admit to wondering that even if he's not really 100 percent, the Colts are so easy to run on -- when's the last time they weren't? -- it might not matter.
"But it does matter, at least to me. The mercurial Peterson warrants a ranking this week, but unless you're really in need, not an activation."
So where does he rank for Karabell? "I settled on No. 30 for now, right after Philadelphia Eagles starter Ryan Mathews and others who are hardly a lock to thrive," he writes.
Al Zeidenfeld is a promoter & user at DraftKings (Username: Al_Smizzle) and plays on his personal account in games he offers advice on. These views/strategies are his own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. He may also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.