Fowler, Williams or Ray for Jaguars?

— -- Insider's NFL Front Office is taking a look at the draft decisions facing the teams picking in the top five of the 2015 NFL draft. In this edition, it takes over the Jacksonville Jaguars, looking at whether the team should trade down or upgrade the pass rush.

Mark Dominik serves as our general manager, Herm Edwards as our head coach, Louis Riddick as our director of pro personnel, Aaron Schatz as our director of analytics and Todd McShay as our director of college scouting.

Join the conversation on Twitter via @ESPNInsider with the hashtag #NFLFrontOffice.

Pick 1: Bucs | Pick 2: Titans | Pick 3: Jaguars | Pick 4: Raiders | Pick 5: Redskins

Mark Dominik (general manager): We've been operating under the assumption that the top two quarterbacks, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, would go with the first two picks, and that's what has happened in this scenario as well. That's a good thing for us, as it frees us up to choose the best non-QB available in the draft after taking Blake Bortles last year, but it's a tough call deciding which player to select.

To me, this pick comes down to two players: USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams and Florida defensive end Dante Fowler Jr. I'm torn between the two, and I know you guys have some other players you think we should consider here, but I'm leaning toward Fowler. It's hard to pass on a talent like Williams, but the most important position in our defense is the "Leo" edge rusher, and Fowler is a perfect fit for it. He's explosive, fast, powerful and has multiple pass rush moves, and I see him as a double-digit sack guy for us from Day 1 if we draft him. Williams would be a great pick, but Fowler is a potential 15-sack guy.

Aaron, why don't you start us off, since I know you have concerns about Fowler based on your numbers.

Aaron Schatz (director of analytics): My question is this: If Fowler can give us 15 sacks in a season, then why didn't he do that in three years of college? He had just 14.5 sacks in his three seasons at Florida. That's a concerning number on its own, but there's more. He ran a great 40-yard dash time of 4.60, but in the combine tests that correlate more strongly to success at the NFL level for pass-rushers -- vertical jump, broad jump and the three-cone drill -- he performed poorly.

My projection model says there's a high probability Fowler will turn into a bust, and if we ultimately decide we need an edge rusher, I have others I'd recommend instead of him. But I'll also say this: We might not have a pure Leo at the moment, but pass rush was not our problem last season. We ranked second in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, with the same guys we have right now, and we added Jared Odrick in free agency.

My recommendation would be Williams. I don't have a model for projecting interior defensive linemen, but he put up fantastic numbers in college and seems to be universally liked by scouts. Plus, he'd give us a fabulous chess piece on defense we could move around. Think about how much trouble the Seahawks gave the Patriots in the Super Bowl by moving their pass-rushers around. Williams provides that type of versatility.

Todd McShay (director of college scouting): If we go purely off of our draft board based on our tape evaluations, Williams is the best player available. I'd have a hard time passing on him here, and to a lesser extent, either of the top two wide receivers: Amari Cooper and Kevin White. My board goes Winston at No. 1, Williams at No. 2, Cooper at No. 3 and White at No. 4.

I understand what Mark is thinking with picking Fowler, and I won't fight too hard against it. I really like Fowler, I think he's a complete player and I agree that he fits the Leo position because of his pass rushing ability, his ability to set the edge against the run and his scheme versatility. He's an NFL-ready guy coming from the SEC. So I like the fit, I just don't think it's the best value. Fowler is the No. 8 player on my board. So that makes it hard for me to pass up on those other guys.

Louis Riddick (director of pro personnel): I love Cooper, and wouldn't have any issues with us taking him this early because he plays a premium position and I think he's a special player. But to me the second-most important position on any football team is pass-rusher, and I agree we need one as the Leo, similar to the role  Chris Clemons played in Seattle.

I just disagree on which edge rusher to take. I like Fowler but I don't really understand the fascination with him as a potential top-five pick. He isn't nearly as skilled a pass-rusher as Shane Ray or Vic Beasley. He doesn't have the moves, and he doesn't have the same level of speed, bend or ability to finish as either of those guys -- or Randy Gregory, for that matter. I'm scared off by Gregory's positive drug tests, so I understand why we'd avoid him here.

Fowler is thicker than those guys, but I think if we take him we're betting too much on what he could possibly become rather than what he already is, while at the same time shortchanging what Ray or Beasley could become. I recommend we take Ray. I think he's the perfect fit for what we're looking for as a fleet-footed 250-pound guy who can wreak havoc as a pass-rusher from multiple spots along the line. He can rush from the 2-point, and he can kick inside to the 3-technique in sub-packages. I know some people very knowledgeable about projecting D-linemen to the NFL who, after having worked with Ray, feel really good about what he can do in the pros.

Schatz: I have more bad news, because my model doesn't like Ray, either. He's the other pass-rusher among the top guys in this year's class who projects as a bust -- even more so than Fowler. The comp the model spits out for him is Vernon Gholston. That's not a good thing. The two big red flags are his exceptionally poor passes defended rate, and some mediocre athletic testing results. His 40 time was barely above average, his jumps were just OK and his three-cone of 7.70 seconds is one of the worst we have in our entire database.

I'm not saying he's certain to be a bust, but he profiles as a player who doesn't have the upside to be taken in the first half of the first round, much less No. 3 overall. Both Beasley and Gregory fare much better in my projections. I think we'd be better off trading back six or seven spots and taking one of those guys after adding some picks. Again, that's if we decide against Williams here.

Dominik: I agree that we should be open to opportunities to trade back from this spot. If another team wants to move up to get Williams or Cooper or another guy here, we should strongly consider it.

The difference I see between Fowler and the other three edge rushers we're discussing is that Fowler isn't a one-trick pony who can only serve as a speed rusher off the edge. He understands leverage and how to use his hands and can be very helpful for us against the run. And as I mentioned before, he has all the tools to be an excellent NFL pass-rusher.

Todd, where do you have all four of these edge rushers on your board?

McShay: I gave Gregory the highest grade of any edge rusher in this class, at No. 7 overall. But I can understand why his off-field issues would prevent us from taking him this early, and he's a little lean for the Leo position anyway. I have Fowler next at No. 8, then Ray at No. 15 and Beasley at No. 23. I love Beasley's quickness and college production, but I didn't see a power element to his game on tape.

Herm Edwards (head coach): It seems like we might be splitting hairs a little bit with some of these guys, but I'll say this more from a philosophical standpoint: You always take the best player available. Never skip a great player because you need a certain fit. That's putting the system before the player, and that's a fine line to walk. Great players make you a better coach, and it's up to you and your staff to adjust your scheme to what your players do best.

Of course I'd love to have another pass-rusher, but Williams can anchor our defense and make us strong up the middle. If we think he's the best prospect -- and I like him better than the other pass-rushers we've talked about -- I think that's the way to go.

Riddick: I have some concerns with Williams. I've heard him called the safest pick in the draft because of his consistency on and off the field, but I think it's important to remember he's either a 3-4 defensive end or a 4-3 defensive tackle. He isn't going to be able to affect third down the way you'd expect from a guy you draft with the third overall pick.

I hate making comparisons between prospects and current NFL players, but Williams reminds me of guys like Muhammad Wilkerson and Tyson Jackson. Wilkerson is a really good player, but the Jets got him in the back half of the first round. Jackson was a guy who moved up draft boards but never became a difference-maker in the NFL. I think Williams will be better than Jackson, and I'm not saying he'll be a bad player by any means, but when you pick a defensive player at No. 3 you want a guy who will be wreaking havoc in order to get the return on your investment.

Dominik: I'm much higher on Williams than Louis is, but I agree about the positional value and potential impact you can get from him versus that of an edge rusher. I like Cooper but think this is too early for him, and we added three young wide receivers last year.

This would be a tricky decision to make no matter what, and it's made harder based on how different our opinions are. It sounds like Louis would take Ray, Aaron and Herm would take Williams, and Todd would take Williams or maybe Cooper.

The No. 1 option here is to move back a few spots in a trade, add a second-round pick for this year or possibly even a first-rounder next year, and take Fowler or one of the other edge rushers (if Fowler is off the board by that point). That's our plan going into draft night, to move back in a deal that gets us extra picks.

But if we don't get an offer we like and have to pick at No. 3, I'm torn between Williams and Fowler. I think ultimately I'd go with Fowler, because if he plays to his potential, he gives our defense exactly what it needs and can start having an impact as a pass-rusher from Day 1. Seeing as how we have to play Andrew Luck and the Colts twice a year, that's important.