Grades: Bulls deal for McDermott
The deal
Bulls get: Doug McDermott (No. 11 overall pick), Anthony Randolph
Nuggets get: Jusuf Nurkic (No. 16 overall pick), Gary Harris (No. 19 overall pick, 2015 second-round pick)
Chicago Bulls: D
Moving up in the NBA Draft seldom pays off. The history isn't as overwhelming as in the NFL, but it's hard to make it worthwhile, especially when you factor in that players drafted lower come cheaper.
My analysis suggests the net value of the No. 11 pick -- the amount a pick would be expected to produce minus salary -- is $11.6 million over the lifespan of the rookie contract. The combined value of the No. 16 and 19 picks is $16.9 million. An analysis by Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight looking at the first five NBA seasons and factoring in team options for years three and four finds slightly larger values and an even larger advantage for picks 16 and 19 ($21.5 million vs. $13.9 million).
So if you're trading up, there better be an elite talent that dropped. That wasn't necessarily the case here. McDermott almost certainly wouldn't have made it to pick 16, but slipped just a couple of picks below his likely spot (No. 9).
One early explanation for the move was the Bulls saving money for free agency. By taking on Randolph, however, they're actually closer to the cap. Randolph's contract is movable, but it slightly reduces the team's flexibility. Given all that, I think Chicago overpaid dramatically to move up five spots.
Denver Nuggets: A+
The Nuggets read the draft perfectly. They'd been linked to both Harris and Nurkic much of the week, but realized that they could get at least one at pick 16 and add an extra first-rounder. Remarkably, Denver was able to get both players, a major draft-night coup, and shed Randolph's contract in the process to open space on the roster. That's a lot to accomplish in one move.