Grades: How does Dunleavy fit with Cavs? Good trade for Bulls?
The Deal
Cavaliers get: Forward Mike Dunleavy
Bulls get: TBD
Cleveland Cavaliers: B
After suffering the defections of Matthew Dellavedova (whose offer sheet from the Milwaukee Bucks apparently won't be matched) and Timofey Mozgov, the Cavaliers' bench was looking somewhat thinner than it did last season. Enter Dunleavy, acquired using the $9.6 million trade exception Cleveland created by trading Anderson Varejao to the Portland Trail Blazers in a three-team trade at the deadline.
There's certainly the potential for Dunleavy to be an ideal fit for the Cavaliers. As ESPN's Brian Windhorst noted, LeBron James has long wanted Dunleavy as a teammate, and Cleveland courted him using the team's taxpayer midlevel exception last summer, when Dunleavy ended up re-signing in Chicago.
Over the past six seasons, Dunleavy has shot 40 percent from 3-point range with metronomic consistency -- never better than 43 percent or worse than 38 percent. Going from the Bulls to the Cavaliers should produce more open looks for Dunleavy, who shot 52.5 percent last season on 3-point attempts with no defender closer than 6 feet, per SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. Conveniently, more than 40 percent of Cleveland's 3-point attempts came with no defender closer than 6 feet, as compared to less than 35 percent for Chicago.
At the same time, we have to at least consider the possibility that Dunleavy might not have much left. Back surgery cost him more than half the 2015-16 season, and though Dunleavy was still accurate beyond the arc after his return, the rest of his game deteriorated. He shot a career-low 42.7 percent inside the arc and posted the lowest rebound and assist marks of his NBA career. Don't pencil Dunleavy in for a major role until we see what he looks like on the court.
This move will certainly hit the pockets of majority owner Dan Gilbert and the team's other shareholders. Including J.R. Smith at his $9.5 million cap hold, I estimate the Cavaliers were set to pay around $137 million for their roster, including a little less than $15 million in luxury tax. Adding Dunleavy pushes those estimates to $23.6 million in taxes and a total payroll of nearly $150 million.
In a vacuum, it's hard to imagine Dunleavy being worth $13 million at age 36. But the stakes are obviously much higher for Cleveland, and if Dunleavy swings even one playoff game in the Cavaliers' favor, that might justify this move.
Chicago Bulls: C
In the context of a rising cap, Dunleavy's $4.8 million salary looked reasonable, even with the concerns about his health and age. Additionally, just $1.6 million of his 2017-18 salary is guaranteed, so Cleveland can get out of this deal early if necessary. That's why the Bulls were able to quickly find a taker for Dunleavy without giving up anything in return when they needed the cap space to sign Dwyane Wade.
The Bulls will get either the rights to an international prospect or a second-round pick in this trade, according to Windhorst, and they might actually see the pick, given that top-55 protection probably wouldn't allow the Cavaliers to keep it. At the same time, that value demonstrates why Chicago would have been perfectly happy keeping Dunleavy if not for the opportunity to sign Wade -- for better or worse.