If Knicks get Joakim Noah: Good move or bad?
— -- The second domino in the New York Knicks' offseason makeover appears poised to fall. After acquiring former MVP Derrick Rose in a trade with the Chicago Bulls last week, the Knicks are now reportedly set to sign Rose's former Chicago teammate Joakim Noah to a contract ESPN's Chris Broussard reports will pay him $72 million over four years.
Like Rose, Noah has fallen from his All-Star heights in part due to injuries. Can he return to form in his native New York City? And does such a large investment make sense for the Knicks?
How Noah fits on offense
The best season of Noah's career -- 2013-14, when he averaged 12.6 points and 5.4 assists per game and finished fourth in MVP voting -- came, not coincidentally, when Rose played just 10 games before undergoing season-ending knee surgery.
In Rose's absence, the Bulls ran their offense through Noah in the high post, taking advantage of his elite playmaking skills for a center. Just two other players 6-foot-11 or taller (Vlade Divac and Kevin Garnett) have averaged as many assists in a season since 1980 as Noah did in 2013-14, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Because of his passing and decision-making skills, Noah is an ideal fit if New York plans to frequently run the triangle offense under new head coach Jeff Hornacek, as the team apparently has so far in practicing for summer-league action.
At the same time, the triangle makes much less sense for Rose, who is most effective with the ball in his hands. He's an average catch-and-shoot player, having posted a 49.5 percent effective field-goal percentage (eFG) on such shots last season, according to Synergy Sports tracking. By contrast, former Knicks point guard Jose Calderon had a 64.9 percent eFG on catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Then there's the matter of what happens when Noah shoots. In 2013-14, he shot 47.5 percent from the field. That dipped to 44.5 percent in 2014-15 and a sickly 38.3 percent in an injury-shortened season that just ended. Remarkably, Noah made just 42.5 percent of his attempts inside three feet in 2015-16. Per Basketball-Reference.com, only Metta World Peace was a less accurate finisher among players with at least 50 such attempts.
Noah's finishing will surely regress to the mean somewhat next season (in other words, it should improve). However, his 2014-15 performance seems like a reasonable guess for how he'll shoot going forward after injuries have sapped his athleticism. Noah's midrange shooting has also suffered. He made two shots all last season from beyond 15 feet, down from 58 in 2013-14. If opponents don't have to respect Noah's shooting, it's a lot easier to sag off him and close down passing lanes.
Because of Noah's poor shooting, he rated as an average offensive player by box plus-minus in 2014-15 and significantly below average last season. ESPN's real plus-minus tells a similar story of his declining offensive value. In all likelihood, Noah is an offensive downgrade from the center he's replacing, Robin Lopez.
How Noah fits on defense
Injuries and age haven't limited Noah as much at the other end of the court. The Chicago defense was much, much better with Noah on the court last season and fell apart after his season-ending shoulder surgery. The Bulls allowed just 99.3 points per 100 possessions with Noah, according to NBA.com/Stats, as compared to a 104.8 defensive rating with him on the bench.
Noah has never been much of a shot blocker, and his block rate has been below the average for centers each of the past three seasons. However, he'll be a huge upgrade for New York in terms of defending pick-and-rolls. The Knicks had to drop the slow-footed Lopez back into the paint on pick-and-rolls, a conservative scheme that allowed opposing ballhandlers open pull-up jumpers. The more mobile Noah can contain the ballhandler and recover to his man.
So while New York may not be getting the same defender who was named the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year in 2013-14, Noah remains solidly above average defensively for a center, and the best option the Knicks have had in the middle since trading Tyson Chandler to the Dallas Mavericks two years ago.
How Noah fits in the big picture
Paying Noah a starting salary near $17 million would leave New York about $15 million under the cap to shop for a starting shooting guard and fill out the bench. That includes cap holds for Langston Galloway and Lance Thomas, whom the Knicks can go over the cap to re-sign in reserve roles, but wing Justin Holiday and center Kyle O'Quinn are the other veteran reserves under contract.
The thin bench could be a major issue because New York has added a pair of major injury risks. Rose hasn't played more than 66 games in a season since 2010-11, while 2013-14 was the only time since the lockout Noah has played more than 67 games. That puts pressure on the Knicks' training staff to keep both players on the court.
Signing a starting center to a four-year contract also might limit Kristaps Porzingis' ability to swing to the middle as he develops. During his rookie season, the Knicks were far better with Porzingis at center (plus-2.2 points per 100 possessions net, per Nylon Calculus tracking) than at power forward (minus-0.2 net per 100 possessions).
Perhaps playing Porzingis at center will be a way to limit Noah's minutes and help keep him healthy. But New York will need sufficient perimeter options to make up those minutes, assuming Carmelo Anthony slides down to power forward. And paying Noah limits those options.
Still, Noah should be worth about his 2016-17 salary. (In fact, my multi-year projections peg his value at a little more than $16 million, close to what he'll be paid.) The problem is the next three years, when Noah will be declining while his salary presumably escalates.
It's unlikely Noah will still be a starting-caliber center by the end of his contract, which takes him through age 35. By that point, the Knicks figure to regret this deal.