Who's better: Lillard or Paul?

— -- On Wednesday night, a Western Conference showdown will take place as the Los Angeles Clippers visit the Portland Trail Blazers. The marquee matchup features seven-time All-Star Chris Paul taking on the ever-surging Damian Lillard. Who has been better this season? ESPN Insiders Amin Elhassan and Tom Haberstroh hash it out.

Tom Haberstroh: OK, Amin. I'm just going to go ahead and get this out of the way so you can't use it against me with a #hatehard jab later: I'm a Wake Forest guy, so this might seem like I'm shamelessly caping up for my school. Transparency! But if we're at a bar (hypothetically!) and someone asks us which player has had the superior campaign in 2014-15, I'm going with the Point God, Paul.

That feels dirty because I don't want to slight Damian Lillard. The guy has been an absolute monster this season, especially late in games. But despite Dame's continuous growth, I'm not ready to anoint Lillard as the better player of the two just yet.

Paul has been more productive on both ends of the floor this season. He doesn't just give me efficient scoring (Lillard does that), but also elite playmaking for others. To me, that puts him over the top. This season, Paul has the better PER (25.5 vs. 23.2), slightly more win shares (7.2 vs. 6.5) and they're basically a wash in real plus-minus-based WAR (7.3 vs. 6.9). Paul has been better. Tell me why I'm wrong.

Amin Elhassan: This comparison is a lot closer than you make it seem. While Paul has Lillard beat in assist percentage, I think that's more indicative of Paul's propensity to dominate the ball. He's a methodical playmaker and floor general, but sometimes that's more about his own security than it is the betterment of the team. Lillard, on the other hand, is more decisive with his touches, and I think that has a value in terms of team chemistry. The ball moves and guys get more touches, making them feel more involved.

The other side effect of Lillard's decisiveness is better shot selection, and better efficiency on those better shots. To wit, almost 50 percent of Paul's field goal attempts are from midrange (often the result of his one-on-one isolations vs. unwitting bigs who switch onto him). Meanwhile, the lion's share of Lillard's FGAs come from the choicest areas: behind the 3-point arc and inside the restricted area. Lillard also has nearly twice as many drives (as defined by SportVU) per game than Paul does, and these are the dynamic dribble penetration plays that create more defensive collapses and breakdowns leading to shot creation for teammates, although not necessarily off of Lillard's initial pass or ensuing hockey pass. Just because he's not getting credit for it doesn't mean he's not partially responsible.

As you've probably guessed, I haven't even played my trump card yet! Let me tee you up, Thomas: Who would you rather have in an end-of-game (EOG) situation, Paul or Lillard?

Haberstroh: If I'm drawing up a Hail Mary, give me Lillard. No one does it better. But if I'm drawing up a set to get the highest percentage look, give me Paul, who has shown he can break down a defense and find the open man better than anybody. We're talking about a guy who has a 30.9 PER in his playoff career during clutch situations, one of the highest rates on record. He's a monster in the clutch, too.

But you know this: We shouldn't evaluate players solely on their performance in a tiny slice of the season. Paul is just a better offensive player. With his points and assists combined, Paul accounts for 39.9 points per game while Lillard is at 37.1. Paul leads the NBA in hockey assists by a wide margin with 3.1 per game, where no one else is above 2.1.

You talked about Lillard's offensive ability to play for the "betterment" of the team. Well, let's fact-check that. Who's more important to their team's offensive success? When Paul is on the floor for the Clippers, they score a ridiculous 115.3 points per 100 possessions. With him on the bench, the Clippers score just 97.2 points -- a Big Baby-sized difference of 18.1 points. Lillard's on/off difference is 11.9 points. Good, but not nearly on Paul's level.

Defensively, I'd rather have Paul, who has the smarts and the peskiness (that's right, I made that up) to nab 1.9 steals per game, the sixth-highest rate in the league. We both know that Lillard's defense has never been his forte and Paul has been named to three straight first-team all-defensive squads. He's not far off that track this season.

Let's be clear: These two guys are the cream of the crop, to be sure. La crème de la crème. But you still would rather have Lillard in a playoff series instead of Paul?

Elhassan: At this stage? I'm leaning toward Lillard! That's the crazy thing about the NBA: We are so conditioned to trust "what's worked for so long" that many times, we don't recognize when something better comes along. Lillard proved himself last season with a barrage of late-game heroic 3s, punctuated by that series clincher against the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. Lest you sleep on him again, he's already shown that last season was no fluke: In clutch situations (under five minutes, with spread no greater than five points), Lillard has shot an eFG% of 52.5 percent from the field and drawn more than 10 fouls per 100 possessions, getting his team into the bonus and himself to the FT line. Paul, on the other hand, has shot a measly 25.8 percent and drawn only five fouls per 100 possessions.

But allow me to backtrack a bit: I'm glad you mentioned defense. Yes, Paul historically has been an elite defender, but we're not talking about back in the day -- as Janet Jackson once sang, what have you done for me lately? And lately, Paul has been slipping defensively. He's still a respectable plus-0.14 in defensive RPM, but he's clearly trending downward (he fell from plus-1.95 last season) as he continues to lose lateral quickness and resorts more and more to gambles. Meanwhile, the opposite is happening with Lillard: an awful defender last season (minus-1.95 DRPM), he has been one of the 10 best defensive point guards this season (plus-0.84), and his improvement is a big part of Portland's overall defensive renaissance (allowing 98.7 points per 100 possessions, third in the NBA).

But I get it, you like living in the past! When do you estimate Lillard will finally surpass Paul?

Haberstroh: You act  as though Paul is 39, not 29! I'm not living in the past when Paul has the superior PER, win shares and a wash in everything else this season. One last thing on defense: I think Lillard's defense is a tad overrated. Westbrook dropped 40 and 38, Ty Lawson 32 and  Derrick Rose 31 on Lillard. No point guard has scored 30-plus on the Clippers this season. I'd venture to say Portland's defense is ranked third despite Lillard's defense, not because of it.

Anyway, I still see Paul edging Lillard in the MVP discussion by the end of the season once Portland's cupcake schedule evens out (second easiest in the NBA so far). I guess the difference is a matter of taste. Paul is more Magic; Lillard is more Kyrie.

Paul turns 30 in May so he won't be in the "best PG in the league" discussion forever, but he's still a monster on a nightly basis. I'll give Paul another season before Lillard passes him in his prime years. At the very least, I can't wait to see Lillard's counter to make up for his five-turnover night in November against Paul (who by the way, dropped 11 assists and no turnovers in the win). Can these two please meet up in the playoffs so we can settle this?

Elhassan: Portland fans, please direct all hate mail to @tomhaberstroh. In the meantime, there's a good chance that these teams will meet: with the Blazers enjoying home-court advantage, hosting the floundering underdog Clippers. I'll enjoy watching Lillard light up Paul. November was a long time ago, buddy!

Haberstroh: Everyone, please hashtag #hatehard in the tweets to me, so I know who sent ya.