The long and short of selecting a DFS team for Pebble Beach

— -- PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. -- Playing DFS is exactly like playing actual golf.

Well, almost exactly. OK, slightly similar. Fine, they're completely different -- but they do share a common theme for success.

Any mental guru worth his weight in Masters diplomas will preach to his pupils about the process of leaving every shot in the past. That pull-hook off the tee into the woods? Can't do anything about it now. The skulled 8-iron into the back bunker? Can't erase it.

And so the secret, these gurus will often explain, is to focus only on the next shot. Fretting over those that already happened can lead to a lack of concentration and have a negative impact on the upcoming results.

Sound familiar?

One of the key secrets to playing DFS also might be to have a short memory. Or even better -- no memory at all.

Just because a certain player posted 25 birdies last week and helped your lineup cash a nice profit doesn't mean you should reward him with another start this week. And just because another player missed the cut by a mile and killed your team doesn't mean he's an automatic fade for the foreseeable future.

Trust me on this one: I'm as guilty of it as anyone.

Two weeks ago in this column, I didn't just recommend Hideki Matsuyama at Torrey Pines. I picked him to win. When he reached the leaderboard early on, I bragged about my prediction on Twitter -- which was obviously the kiss of death for my man Hideki. He quickly retreated down the board, eventually missing the cut and slamming the courtesy car trunk on Friday afternoon.

I should have neglected all of this last week. I should've written that despite his recent MC, I'm still predicting big things for Matsuyama -- especially on a TPC Scottsdale course where he owned top-five finishes in each of the past two years.

But I couldn't forget. I couldn't look past that pull-hook into the woods and so, just like in golf, I wasn't focused enough on my next shot.

It's what one of those mental gurus might call "compounding a mistake." Rather than forgetting the past, I got myself on the DFS version of a bogey train.

That's because one week after I thought Matsuyama would win, he won. Which of course is a nice story to tell at the local 19th hole -- "I knew this was going to happen soon!" -- but won't help the bottom line in your DFS account.

That wasn't my only mistake, either.

Also in that pre-Farmers Insurance Open column, I recommended fading Rickie Fowler. This probably wasn't a popular opinion, considering he was only days removed from winning in Abu Dhabi and was returning to his native SoCal on a course where he's enjoyed some success in the past.

My theory at the time was this: He was tired from traveling so much, he was committed to a few clinics and other sponsor obligations that week and it just didn't feel like the stars were aligning for him there.

This time, I was right. Fowler missed the cut and any of you who took my advice were glad you left him off your roster.

But here's where I went wrong: Yet again, I didn't make myself forget about what just happened. It was still fresh in my mind that I'd faded Fowler and it worked, so I tried it again.

Consider it the equivalent of a golfer knocking one tight from 150 yards one day, then using the same club the next day -- into a completely different wind.

Fowler was the best player in the Waste Management Phoenix Open field. His MC at Torrey meant he'd gotten to rest over the weekend -- and Monday, when the final round was still finishing up. He also thrives on the raucous WMPO crowds.

Instead, I kept thinking too much about the previous week and decided not to recommend him for your roster. Fowler played terrific golf throughout the weekend, losing in a four-hole playoff to Matsuyama.

Don't misunderstand my message here. I'm not suggesting we shouldn't have some "recency bias" -- that's one of those DFS terms -- when it comes to rostering players. If a guy finishes top-five in three straight events, we shouldn't discredit it. What I'm saying is that we all collectively need to disassociate ourselves from whatever happened with our own lineups the previous week.

Let's all try to keep this in mind going forward: We need to remember to forget. It's a great recipe for success on the golf course and a great recipe for success in DFS, too.

With that, let's get to the draws and fades for this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Big Draws (Over $8,500)

Dustin Johnson ($11,400). Speaking of courses fitting a player's eye, no player has fared better around 17-Mile Drive in recent years than Johnson. I probably pick him less than most people; I think DJ still has plenty of weaknesses. But on a fun week, with father-in-law Wayne Gretzky as his partner and courses set up for birdies, he'll make a ton here, as usual.

Shane Lowry ($8,900). I really like Brandt Snedeker and Jimmy Walker, but figured I'd instead offer a player on the lower end of the high-end spectrum. Lowry owns a sixth- and 13th-place finish in his past two starts and his short game should do wonders for him here.

Big Fades (Over $8,500)

Justin Rose ($10,000). I really like Rose's game. I think he can pick up another major this year, possibly at Oakmont or Troon. But here, at an event he usually doesn't play, I would expect this week to serve as more of a warm-up for Riviera, which should be right up his alley next week.

Medium Draws ($7,000-$8,500)

Luke Donald ($7,900). It's going to be a nice year for Donald, but only on certain tracks, where his lack of distance won't hurt him too much. These courses should qualify.

Will Wilcox ($7,500). He finished T-6 in Phoenix without his best stuff. For a guy who makes a lot of birdies, this week should suit him well.

Medium Fades ($7,000-$8,500)

Hunter Mahan ($7,800). I thought this would be a major bounce-back season for Mahan -- and it still might be. But until he shows that, I'm keeping him off my roster.

Slight Draws (Under $7,000)

Ryan Ruffels ($6,500). He made the cut in his first start as a pro. Gobs of talent and playing with nothing to lose can be a deadly combination.

Mark Hubbard ($5,900). With eight made cuts in nine starts, Hubbard has quietly been playing some good golf -- and at this price, he's a great value.

Slight Fades (Under $7,000)

Davis Love III ($6,400). He's a two-time champion here, but that was 13 and 15 years ago. The U.S. Ryder Cup captain will be doing more scouting than contending this week.