5-on-5: What matters most in the Cavs-Pistons series, and who wins?
— -- Detroit beat Cleveland twice this season. Does that mean we have an upset in the making? Or will the Cavaliers begin another march to the NBA Finals?
Our NBA experts go 5-on-5 to offer insight and predictions on the Pistons-Cavs matchup.
1. What is the most important thing to watch in this series?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Whether the Cavs can overcome a lackluster end to their regular season and get on track against a Pistons team that defeated them three of four times this season. Specifically, we should watch the matchup in the frontcourt between Drummond-Harris-Morris and Thompson-Love-James. LeBron has been stellar, but the Cavs struggle with forwards who can exploit Love's defensive shortcomings.
Brian Windhorst, ESPN.com: LeBron. You could give other thoughtful answers but this is what matters. James has owned the East. He was the conference's player of the month for the past three months. He is the East and his list of great playoff performances demands attention.
David Thorpe, ESPN Insider: I will focus on LeBron's perimeter shooting. He makes things so much easier for himself and his team when he is balanced and focused on his 3-ball. He made eight of his last 11 from the 3-point line after a dreadful season from there. Of course, going into Game 1, the Pistons probably hope he chucks a bunch of long shots up. But ...
Ben Alamar, ESPN Analytics: Can the combination of Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson handle Andre Drummond? The Pistons' best shot is for Drummond to be able to dominate inside -- if Thompson can contain him, then the Cavs will dominate the series.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Cleveland's defensive glass. Thanks to Andre Drummond, the Pistons have been outstanding at coming up with second chances, and if those opportunities are lacking against a Cavaliers team that is stout at defensive rebounding, Detroit may struggle to score.
2. After LeBron, who will be the best player in this series?
Elhassan: While I'm tempted to say Reggie Jackson, I expect Kyrie Irving to bounce back with a performance similar to the one he put up last postseason, where he really found his stride shooting the ball from deep and playmaking before going down to injury.
Windhorst: Kyrie Irving. This is why the Cavs are the heavy favorites -- they have the two best players. Reggie Jackson probably doesn't believe this and that's one of the reasons Stan Van Gundy likes him. Could you make a case for Andre Drummond? Sure, but first let's see him stay on the floor at the end of a close game.
Thorpe: I wish I knew how healthy Reggie Jackson was. At full speed he is almost impossible to slow down and I'm sure he is dying to show what he can do in the postseason as a go-to guy. I'm a big Kevin Love fan, so if Jackson is slowed then I'd point to Love as being a force in all facets of the game.
Alamar: Kevin Love has the potential to have a huge series, as the Pistons don't have anyone that has guarded him effectively. His efficiency is up as is his rebounding over last year, and with the defense generally geared to stop LeBron, Love is in position to put up big numbers.
Pelton: I think the offensive matchups are a lot more favorable to Kevin Love (who can post up whichever forward the Pistons put on him) than Kyrie Irving (who will have to deal with stopper Kentavious Caldwell-Pope). On the Detroit side, Reggie Jackson may be limited by the abdominal injury that kept him out the season's final two games and Andre Drummond is vulnerable to hacking. So I'm going with Love.
3. Stan Van Gundy orchestrated an upset of LeBron and the Cavs in 2009. Will coaching play a big role in this series?
Elhassan: Absolutely. Van Gundy enjoys a massive experience advantage over his neophyte opponent Ty Lue, and will devise lineups designed to exploit mismatches constantly. But the flip side of this equation is the massive experience gap between the two rosters: Van Gundy can only do so much, but it's ultimately on the players to execute on the floor.
Windhorst: Stan did do a great job in that series. He also had peak Dwight Howard and got high-level play from everyone else on his roster, including a career game from Rafer Alston. So if he has some of that magic, then yes, coaching will be the difference.
Thorpe: Asking me that is like asking a groundskeeper if the greens are important in a golf event. Um, yeah! It's where the Pistons have the biggest advantage, without doubt. They are inexperienced but he isn't.
Alamar: Not likely. In 2009 SVG's Orlando team was able to put big points up and slow down everybody but LeBron, who had Mo Williams and Delonte West as sidekicks. Now LeBron has Love and Kyrie - both of whom can score - so the defense will be stretched more than it would have had to be in 2009.
Pelton: No. In 2009, after LeBron James the Magic probably had the next three best players on the court in Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. That's very different than this series, where you could argue the three best players all play for the Cavaliers.
4. After a choppy season, what would be the key signs that Cleveland's title chase is off-track?
Elhassan: An inability to match up against quicker, skilled small-ball 4s and an inability for Thompson to handle the much larger, more athletic Drummond would bode poorly for the Cavs moving forward.
Windhorst: Actually, over the last several weeks there have been more signs they've been on track. LeBron just had his best six weeks since returning to Cleveland. Kevin Love is shooting 46 percent from 3-point range over the last nine games. On the other hand, their defense has been very inconsistent and their reliance on the 3-point shot carries risk, so those are items to watch.
Thorpe: If the Cavs continuously fail to execute their defensive plan against a (somewhat) surgical Pistons attack, it does not bode well for a Finals where nothing short of extremely consistent execution on that end will give them a chance against one of the top two West teams. Also, let's see how their new coach deals with making rapid-fire adjustments in playoff action.
Alamar: I see the ceiling for the Cavs being set by Kyrie. He has tremendous potential, but is essentially the same player he was when he came into the league. He can have great moments, but overall hasn't shown a lot of growth in his game on either end of the court. The Cavs need him to step up significantly if they hope to really compete with whoever comes out of the West.
Pelton: I don't think their regular season was all that choppy in basketball terms. If it weren't for the ongoing off-court drama that enveloped the Cavaliers, we'd see that they cruised to the No. 1 seed despite playing without Kyrie Irving for much of the first two months. So I'm not really looking for anything in this series.
5. Who wins the series, and in how many games?
Elhassan: With so many players with limited (if any) playoff experience, it's difficult to expect Detroit to win many games this series. I have the Cavs in 5, but as in last year's first-round battle with Boston, I expect every game to be a struggle and a physical battle.
Windhorst: I don't make predictions. However, I will say assuming the Pistons are another LeBron first-round pushover may be flawed. His 40-7 first-round record says as much about the East as it does about him. The Pistons won 44 games, the most of any James first-round opponent in his career. They beat the Cavs twice during the season, once in Cleveland. I'm not taking anything for granted.
Thorpe: Cavs in five or six. Jackson's health is the huge variable, of course. The Pistons are still "cooking," as new additions like Tobias Harris find their place and the team develops a more solid foundation. I think Cleveland has been bored all year, actually, and we might see a better version of the Cavs.
Alamar: BPI gives the Cavs an 83 percent chance of winning the series and a five-game series is the most likely outcome. The Pistons are average on both ends of the court and the Cavs are top 10 or better on both ends -- so they shouldn't struggle too much.
Pelton: Cleveland in five. For an eighth seed in the East, the Pistons are very good and a tough matchup for the Cavaliers. So I see them keeping things close but not necessarily getting many wins for their trouble.