What does McCollum's max mean for the future of the Blazers?
— -- On Monday, Portland Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum became the first player from the 2013 draft class to sign an extension to his rookie contract, a standard four-year, maximum deal that nonetheless has a host of interesting implications for the Blazers' future.
Extending McCollum is the last major salvo in a busy offseason that saw Portland hand out contracts worth more than $300 million combined. A year after the Blazers reached the second round of the playoffs with one of the NBA's lowest payrolls, they now figure to have one of the league's highest in years to come.
What does that mean for the future of the team and the rest of the roster?
How Portland got here
During this unique period where the NBA's salary cap has increased by approximately 50 percent over a two-year span, timing is everything. Timing has worked both for and against the Blazers during the last 12 months.
When All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge chose to leave Portland for the San Antonio Spurs as the most coveted free agent on the market last summer, the Blazers' front office saw an opportunity to reset. The team never made offers to veteran starters Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews and also traded a fourth starter ( Nicolas Batum) prior to the NBA draft.
The moves gave Portland more cap space than any other team on the market, and the Blazers put it to good use, signing forward Al-Farouq Aminu and center Ed Davis to declining contracts that paid them like top reserves or fringe starters under the old cap model: $7.5 million a year for Aminu, $6.7 million a year for Davis. Aminu proved better than that, emerging as a quality starter at either forward position, and the jump in the cap means that Portland is paying Aminu and Davis less combined ($14.2 million a year) than adequate starters like Timofey Mozgov ($16 million a year) got this summer.
At the same time, the Blazers' timing wasn't as good with their backcourt of McCollum and Damian Lillard, both of whose rookie contracts ended just in time for extensions based on the new salary cap. Portland signed Lillard to a five-year extension last summer, but its value was set based on the 2016-17 cap.
When Lillard unexpectedly made the All-NBA team, pushing his contract to 27.5 percent of a cap-like figure (the version used for max salary levels is slightly different) instead of 25 percent -- itself a concession given that Lillard could have made up to 30 percent by qualifying for the so-called " Derrick Rose rule" -- he settled in as one of the league's 10 highest-paid players this season with a starting salary of $24.3 million. While that's still a bargain for Lillard's production, it could have been a much bigger one.
Knowing that McCollum's extension would kick in next season meant that this was the Blazers' best opportunity to use cap space in free agency. After losing out on forward Chandler Parsons to the Memphis Grizzlies, Portland turned to Evan Turner, signing the former Celtic to a four-year $70 million deal to provide additional playmaking support for Lillard and McCollum.
The backcourt got even more expensive when the Brooklyn Nets came in with a four-year, $75 million offer for restricted free agent Allen Crabbe, who had made the minimum salary in 2015-16. Badly in need of Crabbe's shooting, the Blazers opted to match and also handed out a four-year, $41 million deal for restricted free agent Meyers Leonard after using their remaining cap space to sign center Festus Ezeli to a value two-year, $14 million deal.
Portland's forecast: Possible luxury-tax pain
Because McCollum's extension won't kick in until next season, he'll still be a steal at $3.2 million in the last year of his rookie contract. That low salary should help the Blazers avoid the luxury tax this season. Portland is currently about $9 million shy of the tax threshold with one restricted free agent still outstanding: forward Maurice Harkless, who started for the team in the postseason. At this point, Harkless appears unlikely to get an offer sheet from another team, which might leave him to play this season for his $4.0 million qualifying offer and take his chances as an unrestricted free agent next summer.
The Blazers' books get a lot heavier next season, when McCollum's extension begins. He's currently scheduled to make $23.9 million for a total four-year extension worth $106 million, but that could change dramatically. First, the cap could come in higher or lower than the current $102 million projection, which would affect the value of McCollum's extension. Then there's the possibility that maximum salaries change under a new collective bargaining agreement. In the case of Kevin Durant, who became eligible when the Rose rule was instituted after he signed his extension, the NBA ruled such changes can be applied retroactively.
Based on that estimate, Portland already has a minimum of about $111 million committed in 2017-18 salary to just eight players: Aminu, Crabbe, Davis, second-round pick Jake Layman, Leonard, Lillard, McCollum and Turner. That figure would already put the Blazers within $13 million of the projected luxury-tax line, and it doesn't include team options on Shabazz Napier ($2.3 million) and Noah Vonleh ($3.8 million), Ezeli's full 2017-18 salary ($7.3 million, though with just $1 million guaranteed if he's waived by June 30) or a cap hold for restricted free agent Mason Plumlee ($4.4 million).
Bringing back this year's roster intact would put Portland in danger of paying a massive luxury-tax bill, given that a Plumlee extension would probably need to start in the neighborhood of $15 million. He and Harkless look like the possible sacrifices the Blazers will need to make to keep their tax bill reasonable, particularly if Ezeli plays well enough that Portland feels covered at center with him, Davis and Leonard.
McCollum's extension isn't really the cause of these tough choices, which owe more to Crabbe getting such a lavish offer sheet and the Blazers spending heavily on Turner in free agency. Given his breakthrough last season as a starter, which resulted in Most Improved Player honors, McCollum was a certain max player next summer barring injury. By locking him in now, Portland was able to get a deal that contains no trade bonus or player option according to The Vertical, the kinds of bells and whistles McCollum was sure to get in an offer sheet from another team as a restricted free agent.
Still, McCollum's new deal is a reminder of the salary issues that lie ahead for the Blazers as the inevitable result of paying him, Lillard, Crabbe and Turner a combined $85 million next season, $90 million in 2018-19 and $95 million in 2019-20 -- the latter figure accounting for nearly 90 percent of the projected $109 million cap. Unless Paul Allen is prepared to pay the kind of massive luxury-tax bills Portland annually faced in the Bob Whitsitt era, spending so much on the backcourt will inevitably mean saving elsewhere.